Election 2005

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker

I never said the "proved" it, but they do support it. You're just dismissing it without giving any reason, which is hardly convincing to me. Your assertion is that Kilgore lost because you thought he was an *******. That's even more subjective than my view, you'll note.

He did give a reason: that Kilgore lost because most people thought he was an *******, and this overrode any other trends that could have affected the race.

That's not a reason for saying that the other Democratic victories aren't evidence for a more blue VA. Had Kaine won as he did but the Dems gone down otherwise, that would support such a notion more. Otherwise, it seems like a just-so story.

[Kuciwalker]

Have you actually heard the ads? They're terrible.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker
Of course, if Warner runs in 08 then we won't get to observe that trend, because VA would have a much stronger reason to vote Democrat.

Yes, but it could also accelerate any such trend, too--especially if he wins.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker
Have you actually heard the ads? They're terrible.

All political ads are terrible. I've see candidates get elected with terrible ads/positions/etc. all the time. Case in point: Oklahoma Senate race in 2004.

But I repeat, I'm not denying that Kilgore's despicable Rovian campaigning helped him to defeat. But I think Kaine also had a slightly bluer state helping him to his victory.

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov
All political ads are terrible. I've see candidates get elected with terrible ads/positions/etc. all the time. Case in point: Oklahoma Senate race in 2004.

Well then these are worse than terrible, compared to all the others I've heard on the radio.

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Ramo
It looks like all the CA props will go down except possibly 75 (besides 73, the worst one IMO), but even that seems unlikely at this point (only 1% of LA has been reproted).

I agree with everything but the 1% of LA county reporting. I'm seeing reports putting that number closer to 40%.

Prop 75 [union dues] was scary. It started off 9 points behind. I know that mail-in ballots tend to get counted first, and that mail-in ballots tend to be conservative, but 9 points is a lot to make up. However, seconds ago, the gap had closed down to 2 points. Plus, there was about a 60% turnout in very blue Los Angeles County, so I hoping this vile measure goes down to defeat.

Arnold gave a speech that was very interesting. He's now pushing for bi-partisan cooperation...this after ripping the state in two with his partisan attacks. After his year-long campaign of lies and broken promises, it'll be interesting to see if he wishes to be an Action Hero, or is just--again--engaging in bait and switch.

[Boris Godunov]

One last bit of election news:

In CA, The "Governator" put his political future on the line by wasti...erm, spending $50 million of taxpayer's money on a special election for 4 pet voter initiatives.

Current results:

Precincts: 45.2% reporting

Proposition 74: Teacher's tenure

Yes 47.4
No 52.6

Proposition 75: Public union dues

Yes 50.5
No 49.5

Proposition 76: Spending limits

Yes 40.0
No 60.0

Proposition 77: Redistricting

Yes 43.1
No 56.9

Note that Los Angeles County and several other urban, Democrat-heavy strongholds have yet to report. So even Issue 75, which is currently slightly a "Yes," will most likely flip to a "No." A stinging slap to Arnold and a serious blow to his prospects for 2006.

[Jaguar]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov

Again, this is subjective, and you have *no* way of knowing more than I do if this was THE reason why Kaine won. I'll wager it was some part of it, but a 6 point spread for a Democrat in VA (which is larger than Warner's margin was) to me indicates it not quite the red state it used to be.

You pretty much made the same point four times in a row, so I'll spare the silly cut-and-pasting.

Basically, the major issue for the entire campaign was Kilgore's advertising. Kilgore tried to attack Kaine on the issues of illegal immigrants and capital punishment, but it failed spectacularly, and the discussion on the race in the final weeks was almost entirely about how much Kilgore's ads sucked. It's objective fact that his ads hurt him badly- and it's not at all a stretch to say that they singlehandedly torched the campaign.

Elections aren't between a blue suit and a red suit. They're between two different people, who have to craft an appealing (or at least non-repulsive) image.

Kuci and I are locals. You aren't. You have no idea how badly Kilgore came across, and you haven't seen nearly as much coverage on the race as we have.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Zkribbler


I agree with everything but the 1% of LA county reporting. I'm seeing reports putting that number closer to 40%.

Prop 75 [union dues] was scary. It started off 9 points behind. I know that mail-in ballots tend to get counted first, and that mail-in ballots tend to be conservative, but 9 points is a lot to make up. However, seconds ago, the gap had closed down to 2 points. Plus, there was about a 60% turnout in very blue Los Angeles County, so I hoping this vile measure goes down to defeat.

According to the official CA SoS site, only 2.7% of Los Angeles precincts are reporting as of now:

http://vote2005.ss.ca.gov/Returns/prop/19.htm

Where did you get 40%?

[Zkribbler]

Channel 9 News. But Jackie Johnson was giving the weather, so I might have been...um...somewhat distracted.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Jaguar
Kuci and I are locals. You aren't. You have no idea how badly Kilgore came across, and you haven't seen nearly as much coverage on the race as we have.

"You ain't from 'round heyar, so you don't know nuthin'!"

What a stupid argument.

I keep abreast of politics, and I stayed in tune with the VA race for quite a bit. I saw the ads first-hand when I was back on the east coast for a few weeks. I have family in that area and discussed this stuff with them many, many times. Am I as involved personally? No, but that in no way renders what I'm saying wrong, nor you more right.

For the upteenth time, I have no doubt Kilgore's ads hurt him, but the reason I think there is a larger trend at work is due to the other races tending ever so slightly Dem. This comes on top of a general slight tend towards the Dems in VA over the years, and a large number of political experts who increasingly see VA moving into a swing state position in the not-so-distant future.

All you've offered to counter that are some bald-assed assertions, dismissal of points sans real argument and now a "shut up, you ignorant outsider!" comment. Brilliant.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Zkribbler
Channel 9 News. But Jackie Johnson was giving the weather, so I might have been...um...somewhat distracted.

Well, I'm going to bed, so keep on it!

[Zkribbler]

I heard that one of the gubernatorial candidate's ex-wives made an attack ad. Something like: "He dragged our family down; don't let him drag this state down." Wow, that blow was so low it's subterranean.

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov
Well, I'm going to bed, so keep on it!

No, Jackie's done for the evening.

[Boris Godunov]

That was NJ. Corzine's ex-wife made the comments, and the Republican tried to use them in ads (I don't think the ex actually did ads, though). Corzine won in a landslide.

Oh, and local radio in CA have reported that Issue 75 has flipped to "NO," and all of the ballot measures are sliding down to defeat.

Sorry, Ahnold!