Bush's approval rating drops To 34 % in California

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Jaguar
I think this is the end of the Republican steamroller, though. Certainly in the House, this is the best they will get.

Never underestimate the ability of we Democrats to be able to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.

Watch what happens in next month's AFL-CIO convention. The largest public employee union SIEU and other large groups such as the Teamsters are threatening to pull out. The purpose of the AFL-CIO is to maintain peace between the unions and coordinate their activities. If the SIEU pulls out, there will probably been an internecine struggle with my union AFSCME. Already, members of two of our large units have received inquires about jumping to SEIU. I can see the 2005-06 as the years the unions battle each other, and the anti-labor forces of the Republicans pick up all the marbles.

[Zkribbler]

Schwartzenegger's fall is the front page story in today's L.A. Daily News.

The story makes an interesting comparison between Schwartnenegger's fall and Grey Davis's similar fall.

Davis's fall was triggered by external crises -- the energy crisis and the economic downturn. Schwartnenegger's decline comes from his political strategy, his dealing with the legislature and his decision to call a special election. However, the story goes on to opine that, because he's not facing an external crisis, Schwartnenegger's ability to turn things around will be easier than it was for Davis.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Perhaps so, however, the question at hand was whether Bush Sr. could have beaten Bill Clinton if Perot did not run. That was the whole point of running the numbers.

Which, even in your overly generous calculations, still gives Clinton a narrow electoral victory. In reality, I think he still would have broken 300 EVs.

Secondly, if Clinton could not beat Bush in a straight up election, who is to say that he would have beat Dubya in 2004?

Because Clinton's outgoing approval rating in 2001 was about 20 points higher than Bush's was in 2004?

1992 is patently irrelevant to 2004, since in 1992 Clinton was an unknown. He then had an easy reelection over Dole (far easier than Bush's), and left office with one of the highest approval ratings any president has had.

Bush currently has 42-43% approval ratings, with a higher disapproval rating. At the same poing in Clinton's presidency, he had 59% approval rating vs. 35% disapproval ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...2005Apr11.html )

Bush's numbers are all-round abysmal. The only issue that he's polling a higher approval-to-disapproval rating is terrorism, and that's not close to being the number one issue for Americans now (it's the war and the economy, and Bush's ratings are low on both). He got his ass kicked on social security, too.

[Zkribbler]

who is to say that he would have beat Dubya in 2004?

Do the math:

Clinton = smart + charisma.
Gore = smart + no charisma.
Kerry = smart + even less charisma

[Jaguar]

Clinton could have PWND a 2004 Dubya. I am willing to concede that.

[Mr. Harley]

GePap, be gentle with Jaguar. Weren't all of us cynical, older voters once idealistic and sure of ourselves. He'll outgrow - hopefully. Or may he won't - Yes master, I will follow you to the darker side, the Nediverse.

[Ted Striker]

Originally posted by Agathon

What character flaws?

Most people regard chronic skirt chasing as a character flaw. The exceptions are usually the chronic skirt chasers.

Skirt chasing.

[Boris Godunov]

Update on CA Governor:

In the latest field poll, Arnie has dropped so much that now two prospective Democrats are beating him:

Treasurer Phil Angelides (D) - 46% (35%)
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) - 42% (52%)

Controller Steve Westly (D) - 44% (33%)
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) - 40% (52%)

Parentheses denote previous poll numbers. It's important to note that that Angelides and Westly only have 71% and 63% name recognition (respectively) with Californians at this point. So as time goes on, their numbers are likely to improve even more against Arnie.

He ain't dead yet, but he's in critical condition.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Arnie does have an advantage that his political guys were VERY good in his first campaign, and I think they'll be just as good in the next one.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Following up... I would be sad if Arnie loses... he is one of the few moderate Republicans who are considered one the darlings of the party.

[MrFun]

Originally posted by DinoDoc
Slightly. It would have been better than breathlessly opening the thread about poll results in California and expecting people to give a ****.

Like you always used to say in other past threads, your "give a ****" thingy is broken.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Following up... I would be sad if Arnie loses... he is one of the few moderate Republicans who are considered one the darlings of the party.

He may be good at campaigning, but he seems to be unable to actually govern witht he opposition in power in the legislature. NOt a good trait for a republican governor of Cali.

[Ben Kenobi]

Gepap:

It's just that the approval ratings jump around so much, that it really helps me to know where you are getting your numbers from.

The Party in control gets the blame- this is a startegy Republicans under Gingrich used before '94, by fighting a nasty little war to tie up things.

So you are affirming Gingrich's tactics?

That said, congressional Democrats are no more popular then Republicans, and until lately, were even less popular. That hurts incumbents, NOT challangers, Given there are more republican incumbents than Democrats, this is a bigger problem for the Republicans.

Depends on the concentration of the unpopularity. If the Democrats shoulder most of the unpopularity, then the incumbancy of the Republicans will not play a factor.

I'm also unsure why you feel Santorum is vunerable. He is touted as one of the successors to Bush Jr.

[Boris Godunov]

Santorum is polling in the low 40s for approval, and he's running 15 points behind his 2006 rival, who is a very popular Pennsylvania Democrat.

No one I can think of is seriously touting Santorum as a possibly presidential candidate. Maybe in fundie circles, but in the real world he has a snowball's chance in hell. His first step would be to not seek reelection for Senate, since losing to Casey would kill any hopes he has.

[Ted Striker]

I haven't been following the Governator too much so I'm a little in the dark about what is going on with him.

I do know the teachers' union is out for blood against him, and that can spark all sorts of alliances. I don't believe the opposition against him is any sort of organic, grassroots movement, I believe it's coming from an organized movement, and starting foremost with the teachers union, who have been running tv ads nonstop against him.

I'm not saying what he is doing is wrong or right, but I just don't know enough about it.

What I do know is that there is some shrewd political machinery here at work that I believe exaggerates the public opinion. (What else is new).

The Governator recently gave the keynote address at Santa Monica college, and many of the students turned their backs on him while he was talking. I thought that scene was unbelievable.