Bush's approval rating drops To 34 % in California

[Ben Kenobi]

Congress has a approval rating of about 39% currently. Google it, it comes up fast.

Ah, okay. Making me do your work for you then, eh? If it's important, cite it.

What matters here, specially sincee he is a lame duck, is his popularity as the leader of the Republicans nationwide, making his fortunes connected to those of other elected Republicans, just as it was in 2002 and 2004. If Republicans see his agenda is unpopular, they have to almost run against him, whcih is hard, specially since your opponent from the other party will invariably be EVEN MORE against him.

Granted, but the question becomes what part of Bush's agenda is unpopular? If you look at things like the war in Iraq, as the source of much of the unpopularity, then this will change once the war is over.

Secondly, disapproval for Bush is hardly approval for the Democrats, and Congress's overall approval ratings cannot be solely attributed to the Republicans. First off, I suspect that a great deal of the disapproval comes from the filibustering of the judicial nominees.

If general support is low for both the President and the Congress and both branches are under the same party, its simple enough to understand there is deep unhappiness with those in office.

Is the disapproval of the congress as a whole directed at the republicans or the democrats?

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by Jaguar
Ooh, so this means that Republicans in Congress will get thrown out by California voters!

Oh, wait, California doesn't have Republicans in Congress.

You're actually taking the time to read the posts in the thread? I'm impressed; you have way too much time on your hands

[GePap]

Originally posted by Jaguar

Ooh, so this means that Republicans in Congress will get thrown out by California voters!

Oh, wait, California doesn't have Republicans in Congress.

Tell that to:

Christopher Cox, R, 48th District
John Doolittle, R, 4th
David Dreier, R, 26th
Darrell Issa, R, 49th
Howard McKeon, R, 25th
Wally Herger, R, 2nd
Richard Pombo, R, 11th
George Radanovich, R, 19th
Dana Rohrabacher, R, 46th
Ed Royce, R, 40th
Devin Nunes, R, 21st
Dan Lungren, R, 3rd
Duncan Hunter, R, 52nd
Jerry Lewis, R, 41st

[Jaguar]

I read the very last post, and it was GePap, and I love being an ass to him, so I responded.

[Kuciwalker]

then

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by GePap
Tell that to: [and blah, blah, blah

Yes, the northern and eastern parts of the state are very RED.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


Ah, okay. Making me do your work for you then, eh? If it's important, cite it.

Man, are you lazy.

http://www.pollingreport.com/job.htm

and http://www.pollingreport.com/congress.htm

Granted, but the question becomes what part of Bush's agenda is unpopular? If you look at things like the war in Iraq, as the source of much of the unpopularity, then this will change once the war is over.

The war will not be over by November 2006, which makes it even worse for republicans.

Bush;s Social Security plans have been collapsing in popularity since the day he started to sell them. That is a GIANT albatross on the neck of republicans.

Then there is Bush;s position on Stem Cells.

Secondly, disapproval for Bush is hardly approval for the Democrats, and Congress's overall approval ratings cannot be solely attributed to the Republicans. First off, I suspect that a great deal of the disapproval comes from the filibustering of the judicial nominees.

The Party in control gets the blame- this is a startegy Republicans under Gingrich used before '94, by fighting a nasty little war to tie up things.

That said, congressional Democrats are no more popular then Republicans, and until lately, were even less popular. That hurts incumbents, NOT challangers, Given there are more republican incumbents than Democrats, this is a bigger problem for the Republicans.

[Jaguar]

Originally posted by GePap


Tell that to:

Christopher Cox, R, 48th District
John Doolittle, R, 4th
David Dreier, R, 26th
Darrell Issa, R, 49th
Howard McKeon, R, 25th
Wally Herger, R, 2nd
Richard Pombo, R, 11th
George Radanovich, R, 19th
Dana Rohrabacher, R, 46th
Ed Royce, R, 40th
Devin Nunes, R, 21st
Dan Lungren, R, 3rd
Duncan Hunter, R, 52nd
Jerry Lewis, R, 41st

That's one of every four representatives. 34% doesn't look so bad with that in mind.

[GePap]

Except they got that much on the backs of a popular President AND then Governor.

Now they are far less popular.

I thought a nice bright kid like you might see the implications. Maybe not.....

[Jaguar]

The statewide approval rating is indeed trouble for Arnold.

But honestly, those seats in the House are safe, and the House nationwide is even safer.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Jaguar
The statewide approval rating is indeed trouble for Arnold.

But honestly, those seats in the House are safe, and the House nationwide is even safer.

Yeah, I am sure the Democrats in '94 (what were you, 3?) thought that they were similarly safe.

No, when support for the Congress is this low, the House is no longer "safe".

[Jaguar]

You don't seem to be very familiar with Gerrymandering. House incumbents don't die easily.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Jaguar
You don't seem to be very familiar with Gerrymandering. House incumbents don't die easily.

Actually, I am far more aware of it than you, given I have actually had it mean something to vevery day political actions I have taken.

The point is that Gerrymandering is decades old, as is the general rule that incumbents win 95-98% of the time. That though was true in 1994 also, and yet the Republicans won 74 new seats that year.

So, yes, most incumbants most of the time are safe. That does not make them all safe, especially when the public is getting fed up an willing to chuck anyone who is an incumbent.

[Jaguar]

Basically, the first election I was politically aware for was 2000. Every year since then, I have called that the Democrats will get their asses kicked, and I have always been right.

I think this is the end of the Republican steamroller, though. Certainly in the House, this is the best they will get. They have a long shot at sixty seats in the Senate, though.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Jaguar
Basically, the first election I was politically aware for was 2000. Every year since then, I have called that the Democrats will get their asses kicked, and I have always been right.

Wow, three elections. A regular modern nostradamus

I think this is the end of the Republican steamroller, though. Certainly in the House, this is the best they will get. They have a long shot at sixty seats in the Senate, though.

They have a very unlikely shot at 60 senators. They will be lucky if they add two, I would expect them to lose a couple, since the Democrats coming up are safer than some of the Republicans, like Santorum.