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I doubt that the US will 'fall' like the Roman Empire did.
It will probably suffer the fate of such countries as Spain, Holland, France and Britian - i.e. it will be overtaken by others first economically and then militarily.
The first part (the overtaking economically) has already been underway for some time:
GDP as % of USA:
1938:
USA: 100%
USSR: 47%
Germany: 29%
UK: 24%
France: 19%
1960:
USA: 100%
EEC-6: 55%
USSR: 38%
China: 20%
Britian: 19%
1980:
USA: 100%
EEC-9: 82%
USSR: 46%
Japan: 34%
China: 27%
2000:
USA: 100%
EU-15: 94%
China: 53%
Japan: 34%
India: 26%
In 1950 the US was in a very dominant position economically - it's economy was 115% the size of the next 4 largest - by 2000 that had fallen to 48%.
Admittedly some of this has come about by the EU adding more countries (the current 15 member states's share of the US's output peaked in 1975 and is currently down to the level of the mid 1960's) but remember that that is how the US became such a large economy in the first place (the original '13 colonies' have a combined economy slightly smaller than Japan's - large but not globally dominant).
Both India and China are likely to end up with economies larger than the US's within 50 years (remember that they only need to have levels of income per person around a quarter of the US level to do this - equivalent to Brazilian or Mexican levels).
Military power usually follows after economic power - but with a considerable lag.
The US was a major economic power 50 years before it became a major military one, likewise the British Empire was an important military power long after it's economic dominance had ended.
It will probably suffer the fate of such countries as Spain, Holland, France and Britian - i.e. it will be overtaken by others first economically and then militarily.
The first part (the overtaking economically) has already been underway for some time:
GDP as % of USA:
1938:
USA: 100%
USSR: 47%
Germany: 29%
UK: 24%
France: 19%
1960:
USA: 100%
EEC-6: 55%
USSR: 38%
China: 20%
Britian: 19%
1980:
USA: 100%
EEC-9: 82%
USSR: 46%
Japan: 34%
China: 27%
2000:
USA: 100%
EU-15: 94%
China: 53%
Japan: 34%
India: 26%
In 1950 the US was in a very dominant position economically - it's economy was 115% the size of the next 4 largest - by 2000 that had fallen to 48%.
Admittedly some of this has come about by the EU adding more countries (the current 15 member states's share of the US's output peaked in 1975 and is currently down to the level of the mid 1960's) but remember that that is how the US became such a large economy in the first place (the original '13 colonies' have a combined economy slightly smaller than Japan's - large but not globally dominant).
Both India and China are likely to end up with economies larger than the US's within 50 years (remember that they only need to have levels of income per person around a quarter of the US level to do this - equivalent to Brazilian or Mexican levels).
Military power usually follows after economic power - but with a considerable lag.
The US was a major economic power 50 years before it became a major military one, likewise the British Empire was an important military power long after it's economic dominance had ended.
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