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When will the U.S. fall? God knows. No current trends or imbalances will make it fall but they might weaken it.
1) How long will America remain the safe haven for investment? This is the weakest leg on which American prosperity rests, an eventual devaluation of the currency could cause this to happen. As will the eventual ill effects of high consumer debt.
2) The first point leads into the second point, and that is the increasing disparity between the rich and the poor. This will eventually lead to a strengthing of the class oriented policies, which will mean a rise in wages but might hurt return on investments.
3) Baby boomer time bomb. Europe has got this worse than the U.S., but the Ponzi schemes are going to run out, which will cause a change in current social security and pension policies. Given the strength of the senior citizen lobby, I'd expect an increase in the current tax. Companies who still run a defined benefit pension will be hurting (See American Steel) but pensioners under defined contributions will demand an increase from the public purse.
4) The increasing cost of medical, the US already spends more per GDP then any other country this isn't going to change. Once again the Babyboomer timebomb will force the issue, hopefully there will be some kind of tort reform decreasing the rate of medical inflation.
As with all future prediction I'd have just as much success splitting open the guts of livestock or staring at the stars.
1) How long will America remain the safe haven for investment? This is the weakest leg on which American prosperity rests, an eventual devaluation of the currency could cause this to happen. As will the eventual ill effects of high consumer debt.
2) The first point leads into the second point, and that is the increasing disparity between the rich and the poor. This will eventually lead to a strengthing of the class oriented policies, which will mean a rise in wages but might hurt return on investments.
3) Baby boomer time bomb. Europe has got this worse than the U.S., but the Ponzi schemes are going to run out, which will cause a change in current social security and pension policies. Given the strength of the senior citizen lobby, I'd expect an increase in the current tax. Companies who still run a defined benefit pension will be hurting (See American Steel) but pensioners under defined contributions will demand an increase from the public purse.
4) The increasing cost of medical, the US already spends more per GDP then any other country this isn't going to change. Once again the Babyboomer timebomb will force the issue, hopefully there will be some kind of tort reform decreasing the rate of medical inflation.
As with all future prediction I'd have just as much success splitting open the guts of livestock or staring at the stars.
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