Canadian Election: It's On

[Ben Kenobi]

I think she left in 2000/01.

Then perhaps she is responsible for many of the shenanigans.

Our feud goes back to 1999.

[Flinx]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Using the election forecaster, http://esm.ubc.ca/CA04/forecast.html

I think the Election Prediction Project that dejon posted is a better predictor of the final outcome of the election than guessing at voter migration. There are some ridings where local issues suggest very big swings between parties that are quite different from regional or national trends. That said I have used the UBC election forcaster in the previous two federal elections, you can get some very interesting results.

[joncha]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


Then perhaps she is responsible for many of the shenanigans.

Our feud goes back to 1999.

Then I was probably on the other side of the shenanigans in question as well.


...and here's Bev's website:

http://www.vcn.bc.ca/vsbndp/

[Ben Kenobi]

Then I was probably on the other side of the shenanigans in question as well.

Were you at UBC then?

[Zevico]

LOLLOLO!!!11111
Canadars have elerctions! They rreal uselles
LLLLLOL

[Flinx]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Using the election forecaster, http://esm.ubc.ca/CA04/forecast.html
this is what I figure:
Ontario
54 LIB
3 NDP
46 CON

Putting my numbers into the matrix I get for Ontario:
LIB 75
NDP 5
CON 26

The NDP has a potential shot at probably 10-15 ridings but I suspect they will not pull through as people vote Liberal to prevent a Conservative government.

[joncha]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


Were you at UBC then?

Yes, which is why I'm pretty sure I know about the shenanigans of which you speak.

[Ben Kenobi]

Putting my numbers into the matrix I get for Ontario:
LIB 75
NDP 5
CON 26

The NDP has a potential shot at probably 10-15 ridings but I suspect they will not pull through as people vote Liberal to prevent a Conservative government.

My numbers are based on the polls showing the LIB and CON close in Ontario due to the recent backlash against the LIB provincial government deficit and increased taxes.

What are your poll numbers based on?

[Ben Kenobi]

Yes, which is why I'm pretty sure I know about the shenanigans of which you speak.

this is going to be SOME polymeet.

I wonder if I know you in RL.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Flinx
The NDP has a potential shot at probably 10-15 ridings but I suspect they will not pull through as people vote Liberal to prevent a Conservative government.

[joncha]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi




this is going to be SOME polymeet.

I wonder if I know you in RL.

Let's just say, if you invite Stephanie Grey along, I'm not coming.

[Lonestar]

Welcome, my Canadian friends.... welcome to the wonderful world of voting for the lesser of two evils. The numb exasperation will begin in 4...3...2...1...now.

[Ben Kenobi]

if you invite Stephanie Grey along, I'm not coming.

Rest assured, I will not.

And you've just proven you may very well know me in RL.

[joncha]

Originally posted by Flinx

The NDP has a potential shot at probably 10-15 ridings but I suspect they will not pull through as people vote Liberal to prevent a Conservative government.

As long as Layton sticks to the Liberals=Conservatives strategy, the NDP will win big (relatively speaking). If they fall back to on the Conservatives=Reform=brown shirts strategy, they'll be lucky to win more than 3.

The NDP supporter's failed "tactical voting" strategy dates to the free trade debate. The "lesson" of Mulroney's win was that NDPers should have voted for the anti-free trade candidate with the best chance of winning their riding. Then Chretien won big, and put a lie to that strategy. It's about time moderate lefties abandoned it.

[Ben Kenobi]

I don't think you really have a choice between those two strategies.

Pummel the Liberals, alongside the Conservatives, and watch the Conservatives get in.

Pummel the Conservatives alongside the Liberals, and watch the Liberals get in.

Either way you're stuck.