Canadian Election: It's On

[Hot Mustard]

I'm on the edge of the St. Paul's (Toronto) riding.

The candidates:
A) Carolyn Bennet (Liberal) (Incumbent)
B) Barry Cline (Conservative)
C) Norm Tobias (NDP)
D) Peter Elgie (Green)

Some information about my riding. And more!

The way I see the choices:
A) if you want more of the crap we have;
B) if you want more of the crap we had;
C) if you believe they can change anything;
D) if you want change and a party that will follow through with it.

Of course, Green doesn't have a prayer in my riding (affluent, heavily Jewish), but they always get my vote.

[Agathon]

I live in this riding, not too far from Forest Hill. I have to share the local Loblaws with hordes of disgustingly stupid and tasteless yuppies. Having said that, the market has some nice foreign stuff in it because of them - although I did buy what purported to be pickled onions (a Yorkshire delicacy) but turned out to be turds.

[Ben Kenobi]

Libs 35%
Tories 26%
NDP 18%
Greens 5%


Tories are over 30% in other polls.

I predict that should the Tories get 31%, and the BQ hold up in Quebec, that the Liberals and the NDP will still fall a few short of forming a minority government.

[Ben Kenobi]

Bloc 50%
Libs 28%
NDP 8%
Tories 7%

Yow!

Sweep for the BQ.

I didn't include that in my figures.

[Ben Kenobi]

I'm in the riding of Vancouver South, formerly Vancouver /South Burnaby.

We have several candidates in the riding, a former Premier of British Columbia, Bev Meslo, whom I've never heard of and a Dentist and sessional instructer at UBC for the Conservatives.

Pics forthcoming.

http://www.ujjaldosanjh.ca/

That's one.

http://votevictor.ca/

That's two.

(Thanks joncha!)

http://www.vcn.bc.ca/vsbndp/

[joncha]

Originally posted by Arrian
VOTE DUMBASS!

What party is he in?

[joncha]

Bev Meslo is the NDP candidate for Vancouver South. She was a moderate leftist mature student on the AMS council at UBC, and a personal friend of mine. She ran for the "socialist caucus" in the NDP leadership race (which shocked those of us who knew her at UBC). I'd suggest that you vote for her, BK, but she's strongly pro-choice.

[joncha]

She gained some notoriety in the leadership campaign for saying she believed that marijuana should be "grown like grass."

Here's her pic.

[Ben Kenobi]

I'm actually torn over who I would vote for in Vancouver/ South.

Check the other candidates and you'll see why.

I'm a personal friend of the Heritage Party candidate.

[Ben Kenobi]

mature student on the AMS council at UBC,

I've had numerous clashes with the AMS council. The fact that she served there recently only further dissuades me from voting for Meslo.

[Ben Kenobi]

Using the election forecaster, http://esm.ubc.ca/CA04/forecast.html

this is what I figure:

(have to adjust for Quebec.)


BC

6 LIB
4 NDP
24 CON


Alberta:

25 CON
1 LIB

Ontario

54 LIB
3 NDP
46 CON

(Dropped the Conservatives 1 for Ottawa Centre.)

32.1/33.9/33.9

Prairies: (Manitoba & Saskatchewan)

11 LIB
10 NDP
7 CON

Quebec:

8 LIB
66 BLOQ
1 CON

Maritimes:

26 LIB
3 NDP
3 CON

North:

2 LIB
1 CON

Totals:

108 LIB
20 NDP
108 CON
66 BQ

[joncha]

Ujjal is a jackhole. I wasted a vote on him two (provincial) elections ago when I lived near Main & King Ed.

[joncha]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


I've had numerous clashes with the AMS council. The fact that she served there recently only further dissuades me from voting for Meslo.

It wasn't that recently... I think she left in 2000/01. Not that you'd vote for her anyway.

[joncha]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Using the election forecaster, http://esm.ubc.ca/CA04/forecast.html

The problem with this one is it doesn't take riding-by-riding votes into account.

[Ben Kenobi]

Yes it does...

Try it out.

If you take the percentages, then the seats more heavily weighted in the last election towards the Liberals will stay Liberal, even when you drop the percentage.

The only assumption you are making is that the trends in the province will remain the same for all the ridings in the province.

Anyway, it's better than idle speculation. Trying to come up with a proper matrix for each province is some work, but quite worthwhile.