Is it inevitable?

[General Ludd]

Originally posted by Q Cubed
china's army could do it, if it got to the island. the problem is getting there, and china doesn't have enough amphibious forces.

They could build a bridge out of corpses if they really wanted to.

[Q Classic]

the chinese are good at that.

so are russians, who built their entire capital of yore on bones in a swamp.

[Lord Merciless]

Beside having America's corporate noses up in their ass, Taiwanese ones are even farther up in China's rectum. Addiction to cheap labors and unlimited markets is almost impossible to cure. Unless China shoots into its own foot seriously, I foresee a Hong Kong like solution for Taiwan within 10 years.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Ned
The problem Taiwan has is that it does not have a defensive alliance with the US as an independent nation. I don't think we have any obligation to Taiwan if they declare independence.

Taiwan has a 60-year alliance with the US and an explicitly stated and often repeated guarantee that the US will defend them in the event of a communist invasion. Since PRC has such a crap Air Force and Navy they really have no chance of actually landing in Taiwan with enough forces to do the job. All the US has to do is have a couple of aircraft carrier battle groups control the skies over the straights while subs block direct trans-straight military traffic and you have conditions under which the Chinese cannot successfully launch an invasion.

[Ben Kenobi]

Blame Canada! Blame Canada!

Nudges switch on STEALTH NATION DEFENSE.

Why do you keep slipping?

[Zylka]

Thanks for the contribution

Originally posted by Osweld
It's inevitable. Every country seems to go to war with it's neigbours at some point or another.

and you're a simple minded moron!

[Dis]

Originally posted by Oerdin


Taiwan has a 60-year alliance with the US and an explicitly stated and often repeated guarantee that the US will defend them in the event of a communist invasion. Since PRC has such a crap Air Force and Navy they really have no chance of actually landing in Taiwan with enough forces to do the job. All the US has to do is have a couple of aircraft carrier battle groups control the skies over the straights while subs block direct trans-straight military traffic and you have conditions under which the Chinese cannot successfully launch an invasion.

they can if the nuke the U.S.

[PLATO]

Chinese naval development has concentrated on developing attack submarines and anti-sub capabilities. They are now talking about a true blue water navy. Massive surface to air missle barrages, shore to ship missle attacks, and robust anti-sub and ship activities could nullify the impact that US naval airpower could have. The Taiwanese have a formidable defense capability in their own right and would provide major problems for the Chinese, but the Chinese simply have to much to close to be stopped without a massive US effort.

The security guarantees that the US has provided are verbal and nothing formal exists. In recent years the US has even backed off on solid verbal guarantees. It is likely that the US would through Taiwan under the bus if push came to shove. They would, of course, negotiate a "special status" for Taiwan, but the result would be the same...another expansion of an ever growing Chinese empire.

As far as nuking the US...not even the Chinese are that stupid

[:) Smiley]

Well, the USA has the world's most powerful army and it can barely control Iraq and Afghanistan. Ought to be lesson enough to anyone thinking of invading anywhere.

There'd still be an independence movement, and rather than it being a bunch of loudmouthed politicians, there'd be people blowing up buildings.

[David Floyd]

Militarily speaking, the Chinese could shoot missiles at Taiwan for weeks, and wreck the place beyond repair, but that might sorta defeat the purpose of trying to get Taiwan. The PRC would not be able to put enough ground troops on the island at one time to actually take it, from what I can see.

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by David Floyd
Militarily speaking, the Chinese could shoot missiles at Taiwan for weeks, and wreck the place beyond repair,

Pyrrhus could have used a man like you on his staff.

[Spiffor]

War is avoidable.

For now, China mostly uses the nationalistic rethoric on the home front, and the Chinese government will grow increasingly nationalistic as the economic growth will falter, and as the population will grow more restless against the regime.
Most likely, the Chinese government will become Milosevic-like, and it will try to get legitimacy by chanelling people's hatred toward other countries.

However, the shift to nationalism will become dramatic only when the economic growth will stop. Until then, the growth is enough to make sure the Chinese population stays calm.
When China will stop being growing, it will very probably be a real geopolitical danger for any other major power, including the US (I'm speaking about the 2010's or the 2020's). At that point in the future, the US will not run the risk of entering war with China only to support the tiny and unimportant Taiwan island.

Without US support, the Taiwanese will stand by themselves against an agressive China. Whether there will be war or not will depend on how much the Taiwanese and their leaders value their survival. The assimilation of Taiwan in Chinese territory is likely not to be too bloody if the Taiwanese don't resist. But since the Taiwanese are very independence-minded, chances are it'll be a horrid bloodbath

[Alex]

nah, no war at all. it would be economically ruinous both for China and Taiwan.

[Urban Ranger]

Yesterday, the Taiwanese legislature passed a mild form of the "referundum act" as proposed by the KMT and its allies. This takes the sting out of Chen's ploy as not to anger the PRC.

[DaShi]

Good for them.