Good Gawd! -- FY '03 Deficit of $450 Billion

[Gatekeeper]

According to a KRT report I ran across on the raw news wires, we will pay $156 billion in just interest this year on the $455 billion deficit we're running up.

In comparison, it apparently costs $7.6 billion to run the *entire* Environmental Protection Agency for a year. Do the math ... and imagine just what all that money being spent on paying interest on the deficit could be going towards instead if the deficit projections weren't so high.

Gatekeeper

[Drake Tungsten]

I wonder how bad the deficit will have to get before Congress finally buckles down and reduces spending?

Wait, that's a silly question. "How cold will Hell have to get before Congress finally buckles down and reduces spending" is a much more sensible question. Pardon me.

[Ben Kenobi]

Boris:

Tough to run a war without cutting spending and still balance a budget.

I'd love to see the Dems do that,

[Kramerman]

wow. thats a lot of billions

[el freako]

Originally posted by Fez
The real losers in the world today are France and Germany, after their totally mismanaged economies are starting to tank completely.

I wouldn't call the French and German economies mismanaged - after all they are more fundamentally sound than the US's which has only purged around half of the excesses of the 1990s (and almost all of that is in the corporate sector so the pain now has to fall on households).

Germany:
GDP per head as % of USA in 1997: 75.8%
GDP per head as % of USA in 2002: 76.2%
Unemployment rate in 1997: 5.2% above the US level
Unemployment rate in 2002: 2.8% above the US level

France:
GDP per head as % of USA in 1997: 71.6%
GDP per head as % of USA in 2002: 75.3%
Unemployment rate in 1997: 7.3% above the US level
Unemployment rate in 2002: 2.9% above the US level


To me this looks much more like a relative improvement of the French and German economies than a mismanagement relative to the US's performance.

Originally posted by Fez
Did you know deficits were much worse in the 50s and 60s than they are now? Much worse.

Once again Fez's political beliefs prevent him from seeing the truth.

US Budget Balance as % of GDP:
1951-60: -1.3%
1961-70: -1.2%
1971-80: -2.1%
1981-90: -4.3%
1991-00: -2.3%
2001-04*: -3.2%

* using OECD forecasts for 2003-04

Source: OECD and BEA

[RGBVideo]

Unemployment rate in 1997: 5.2% above the US level
Unemployment rate in 1997: 2.8% above the US level

[el freako]

oops, cut and past error - corrected

[Giancarlo]

Originally posted by el freako


I wouldn't call the French and German economies mismanaged - after all they are more fundamentally sound than the US's which has only purged around half of the excesses of the 1990s (and almost all of that is in the corporate sector so the pain now has to fall on households).

WTF?

Germany:
GDP per head as % of USA in 1997: 75.8%
GDP per head as % of USA in 2002: 76.2%
Unemployment rate in 1997: 5.2% above the US level
Unemployment rate in 2002: 2.8% above the US level

France:
GDP per head as % of USA in 1997: 71.6%
GDP per head as % of USA in 2002: 75.3%
Unemployment rate in 1997: 7.3% above the US level
Unemployment rate in 2002: 2.9% above the US level

NO!

Where did you get these wrong facts?

Germany has a unemployment rate of about 10-11% according to the economist. France has one nearing 10%.

You are a fool!

[Kramerman]

you could be more polite, fez, when arguing

[RGBVideo]

Hehe, I made that name up.

Wasn't he the chief of UN in the late 80's?

Germany has a unemployment rate of about 10-11% according to the economist. France has one nearing 10%.

CIA Factbook 2002 :
Unemployement,
Germany: 9.8% (2002 est.)
France: 9.1 % (2002 est.)

Germany:
Unemployment rate in 1997: 5.2% above the US level
Unemployment rate in 2002: 2.8% above the US level
[..]
France:
Unemployment rate in 1997: 7.3% above the US level
Unemployment rate in 2002: 2.9% above the US level

Unemployement,
USA: 5% (2002)

France:
9,1% - 5,0% != 2,9%
5 * 1,029 != 9,1%

Germany:
9,8% - 5,0% != 2,8%
5 * 1,028 != 9,8%

I agree with Fez

[HershOstropoler]

"Germany: 9.8% (2002 est.)"

That's by Germany's national standard. For comparison, use Eurostat data is it uses the ILO method like the US.

[RGBVideo]

Are the differences between statistical methods so radical that they explain the 2% difference between CIA's info and el freako's typed words?

[el freako]

Originally posted by Fez
WTF?

The imbalances in the US economy are best measured by the private sector financial balance - after being in the range of 0% to 4% of GDP during 1960-1995 it plunged to -6% in 2000.
Since then it has recovered somewhat to -1.5% in 2002, almost all of this improvement has come from companies reducing borrowing - so either there needs to be another large fall in investment by companies or US households need to cut back their spending.

Originally posted by Fez
Where did you get these wrong facts?

If I may draw your attention to the part in my post where I said "source: OECD & BEA" - but why am I bothering, you never look at anything that contradicts your political beliefs.

Originally posted by Fez
Germany has a unemployment rate of about 10-11% according to the economist. France has one nearing 10%.

You are a fool!

And you are a worse fool for knowing nothing about the differing methods of measuring unemployment.

For example, in Germany you are counted in the unemployment total if you work less than 28 hours a week.

If you measure unemployment using the same definition (has actively sought work in the last 4 weeks) then France's rate in 2002 was 8.7% and Germany's was 8.6% - this compares with the US's 5.8%

Of course I'm sure that you would prefer to compare apples with oranges if it furthurs your political agenda

[Giancarlo]

The US economy is actually growing. Germany is not and France registered minimal growth.

I am talking about 2003.

[HershOstropoler]

Originally posted by Tuomerehu
Are the differences between statistical methods so radical that they explain the 2% difference between CIA's info and el freako's typed words?

CIA info,

But the answer is yes, and I see Jon has already explained. Btw, there are also big differences concerning seasonal adjustment.