Sid games C3C: how to improve our skills

[vmxa1]

I have to yield on that aspect. I have not tried an AI on Deity or Sid that have RR in place. It would scare me to death.

They will have about 1000 troops maybe 1500. They will have bombers. They do not use art on offense, but they will use bombers. They will pounding you with ships.

This is an under taking that would require an enormous force and corresponding shipping.

You have lots of time to catch the missing tech and should be able to muster a steal attempt every 4 turns, maybe less. Some techs can be skipped.

All I know for sure is they can will toss half of its standing force at you right away. With just roads, they can get there fairly fast, with rails it will be immediately.

My understanding of Mr Justice's forces are that he does not have them.

BTW you can often do as well as 5 turns to switch, 6 is quite common.

[sabrewolf]

3 questions on these tech steal attempts:
- what's the avarage success rate for each time you try?
- what's the chance of getting caught?
- what's the chance of war when caught?

always supposing we using the "safest" theft.

[Drachen]

Originally posted by vmxa1
I have to yield on that aspect. I have not tried an AI on Deity or Sid that have RR in place. It would scare me to death.

Hey Vmxa;

You make a number of good points as usual. I agree that taking on Russia would be very difficult and that’s why I suggested so many different steps in previous posts to get it done. The different steps work in concert to achieve the end result. I wouldn’t want to take on a KAI with RR either but the point is that they wouldn’t have a road network if you had been pillaging them on and off for 40 turns while building your military, planting your spy, switching governments, and building a beachhead. If they don’t have roads then reinforcements come in piecemeal and your troops can use the beachhead barracks to heal up between waves. I admit that I’ve never invaded an AI with bombers and it does seem risky but probably less risky than letting Russia get even stronger than it is now. The fact is that the game is still up for grabs and could go either way. The game will be at risk whichever way Mr. Justice chooses to go.

[Drachen]

Originally posted by sabrewolf
3 questions on these tech steal attempts:
- what's the avarage success rate for each time you try?
- what's the chance of getting caught?
- what's the chance of war when caught?

Here is some info I found when researching it but I can't remember who gets the credit and I didn't verify the info.

Rate of success
Base (Diplomat) 50% (safe and carefully), 30 (immediately).
Spy 66% (safe and carefully), 40% (immediately)
Veteran (Commie) spy 75% (safe), 66% (carefully), 60% (immediately). Still needs verification. Check if war has implication over vet spies only.

Chance of escape in case of mission failure
Base (diplomat/spy) 33%-50% (safely), 20-40% (carefully), 15-20% (immediately)
Veteran (commie) spy 75% (safely). Others need verification because state of war might change results.

War seems to INCREASE chance of escape to 60% (spy), 66%-75% (vet spy).
Some other factors might be involved as Oystein tests showed some inconsistencies with Aggie's.

[sabrewolf]

thanks dragon (or is it kite? )

so what vmxa1 said earlier, that you can attempt to steal every 4 turns is in fact a very big risk!
lets say, you've not yet got an IA and not yet in communism (to get that far, you must have been quite successful with stealing in the past ), you'll only get a tech in average every 8 turns and your diplomat will escape in average every 2nd time. that means every 16 turns, your facing likely war declaration and thereby often destruction. or am i missing something?

mountain sage: i hope you don't consider this as threadjacking... it's not completely on-topic, but may be of interest for sid-dreamers like me

[Drachen]

Originally posted by sabrewolf
thanks dragon (or is it kite? )

so what vmxa1 said earlier, that you can attempt to steal every 4 turns is in fact a very big risk!
lets say, you've not yet got an IA and not yet in communism (to get that far, you must have been quite successful with stealing in the past ), you'll only get a tech in average every 8 turns and your diplomat will escape in average every 2nd time. that means every 16 turns, your facing likely war declaration and thereby often destruction. or am i missing something?

mountain sage: i hope you don't consider this as threadjacking... it's not completely on-topic, but may be of interest for sid-dreamers like me

You’re welcome and it’s Dragons in German…easier to use a foreign language password for English language sites.

I’m not so sure I’d worry about destruction since the AI is so poor at invasion but I’d sure rather have veteran spies if I were trying to survive by tech theft.

[vmxa1]

Originally posted by sabrewolf
3 questions on these tech steal attempts:
- what's the avarage success rate for each time you try?
- what's the chance of getting caught?
- what's the chance of war when caught?

always supposing we using the "safest" theft.

I have usede it in maybe three games at sid, so I am not sure it has great meaning. Anyway I use the cheapest method for a long time.

Once I get to a point I do not want a war, I will move up from immediately to the second one or the third one.

It seems that in the last stage they are quick to declare if they cathc me, in the times before that I may have enough troops to make them think about it as they often just say they are not pleased.

I would say the rate is very high in the begining. Maybe 70% and then about 1 in 10 for war.

So in 10 trieds, 7 work, 3 fail and one is a war. That move down a bit in the end even though I am using the safest method.

Just a guess from memory, but maybe 5 or 6 works and half lead to war.

But as I said, I have no idea if this is going to stay that way for me or if it is unusal.

[vmxa1]

Originally posted by sabrewolf
thanks dragon (or is it kite? )

so what vmxa1 said earlier, that you can attempt to steal every 4 turns is in fact a very big risk!

I may not have been clear on that, but I only meant you would be in a position to try it every 4 turns. You hopefully would not need to steal constantly every 4 or so turns. what I meant is you can raise the cash needed for an attempt. Some timeit fails, but you escape, some times it works and others it fails and you are caught. They may or may not declare war.

They will not always be getting a new tech every 4 turns and you will not always want or need the one they researched.

[Drachen]

Originally posted by vmxa1


I may not have been clear on that, but I only meant you would be in a position to try it every 4 turns. You hopefully would not need to steal constantly every 4 or so turns. what I meant is you can raise the cash needed for an attempt. Some timeit fails, but you escape, some times it works and others it fails and you are caught. They may or may not declare war.

They will not always be getting a new tech every 4 turns and you will not always want or need the one they researched.

Very true my friend. But if it were your game wouldn’t you go after Russia? You are such a warrior and this is such a warrior’s gambit.

[vmxa1]

Well I would have to take a very hard look at the game to make that call. I only took a glance. Not having played it out to that point I don't have a feel for what the true status may be.

But given the impression I had that he had gotten rid of most of his troops, it would be a hard road.

If I had play to the same point, I would have enough of a force to attempt it.

To me it comes down to having mobile armies as they are the main means of not taking massive losses. Back them up with bombardment units and strong defenders and you can get by with very few losses.
I find that is critical as you cannot ship replacements over in large enough numbers in timely enough fashion to be losing scores each round.

Get up a few armies of defenders (be they muskets or rifles or what the current times provides) and back them with cannon/cat/arty and you can often kill 20 or 30 without a lose.

I know I have had a few rounds with up 80 killed without a loss. That involved a river and was against ancient units.

Until you get to airports, you have to use ships and they are too slow for massive replacements.

Then I use my horse types in armies to kill off lots of weaken attackers. Taking no risk, if I can avoid it. I like to be methodical when the game is on the line.

[Drachen]

Well Mr. Justice...you've read all the arguments. Let us know how it goes.

[vmxa1]

Mr. Justice, I forgot, why are you blocking the settler? I could not see any landing place for it to use inside your island.

Not to be argumentive, but for clarification and maybe I can learn something, but why did you not go for industiral before replacement parts.

I know you wanted the bump in workers speed, but by now you can have enough workers to not make a big difference.

I would want those factories asap.

I would come back around to plant a few more cities to get more support for a standing army.

Since you are in third place in land, you need more soon. I see some cities are starving, this could be addressed with rails, if you have the coal and iron.

I try to have a plan for where the most important rails are so they can be laid first. I will be moving workers over to be ready to roll as soon as I get the tech.

My keys are cities that are producing important things (units/wonders), cities that are not growing, connecting all cities, with an eye to having the borders prioritized.

Connecting cites moves to first if attacks are coming.

I want to be able to get troops to any cites first and then any perimeter. The perimeters lets me use arties on ships at times.

[Mountain Sage]

Originally posted by vmxa1
I want to be able to get troops to any cites first and then any perimeter. The perimeters lets me use arties on ships at times.

And then you create a 'rapid deployment force' and disband all old garrison troops. This should add significant amounts of gold to your treasury if you kept all border cities garrisoned.

[Mr Justice]

vmxa1, i went for Replaceable parts first cause (defore industrialzation) i bypassed nationalization , i needed a new defensive unit and wanted to bypass rifelmen and go straight for infantry. i knew russia had the techs.
i was not overly concerned with getting factories everywhere. at the time i needed to be able to defend myself against russia (SMs where my best defender prior to infantry) mind u i didnt need to build up a big force, just enuf that i could stop a small attacking force.

anyway my game has moved on. its ~1470. had a quick war with russia. but they discovered flight in the middle of it and i quickly made pease with them. i blocked a couple of their invasion forces using my galleons (well i forced them to land one at a time, thus face 4 units a time rather than 8, i only had 4 infantry and 3 artill (well 2 armies as well but they with knights and SMs ) however that was around 10 turns ago.

mongols also declared on me. ive sent almost my entire military (10 infantry, 10 artil). but mongol AI is unbelievibly stupid. im attacking their city with 4 spices in city radius. im whittling down the defenders (i dont have enuf units to take em all out, but 3 armies so wont be long) but the AI has stacks and stacks of units nearby but they aint moving! im just gunna take that city and then make peace. mongols best unit is keshick and musketmen.

my empire spreads out over 3 big islands and then 2 small cities on other islands. i can move units between any of those in 1 turn. combined with RR everywhere means defensively im covered (appart from bombers!!!!!)

currently im waiting for russia to finish reaserching Electricty casue ive a palace prebuild (with 6 turns left) ready for hoovers. russia got TOE before i even got the tech. but id already disregarded TOE. it gives me nothing that 10 turns of saving cant get me. unless im mistaken russia has really slowed down reaserch. ive already stolen refining and saved up enuf to steal again while waiting for electricty. if this is true then im on the pigs back

steals from russia costing 4000gold now, have to do safe cause i cant afford war. i got the nationaiazation brach from hittites (both traded and stole).

am considering building all my librarys and unis now and doing some of my own reaserch. the reliance on stealing has its drawbacks, ive no options in this regard. building them now would only take a few turns post factories (and hoovers hopefully)

im still at 100% tax, pulling in almost 1000 gpt. building lots of infrastructure atm (police stations, factories hospitals (where i allow greater than size 12 cities, i dont have to many free tiles on my home island) and stock exchanges)

my military is now back down below my support level.
once i get those spices frm the mongols i'll be happy.

thankfully the game is flying along now. wars are just so timeconusming at this level (mongolia is a joke atm, i'll try post an image tonight to show u just how stupid this AI is. i cant lose to that level of stupidity ) but that war is flying along. they dont attack me and i just deplete their city of units and they arent replacing them!
one or 2 turns at this rate then that city is mine (well i'll razre and resettle, my culture is still lower than any other AIs)

[Mr Justice]

Mr. Justice, I forgot, why are you blocking the settler? I could not see any landing place for it to use inside your island.

there is a tiny space just below my FP city (new amsterdam i could resist renaming it to that)

as for tech stealing i have found that on average i need to save for 5 turns to get enuf to steal at the safest level.

in the begining i was getting approx 200 gpt and steals were 1000.
now im getting nearly 1000 (975 or somethin) and steals cost 4040 at safe.
safely is great, only rarely is it not successfull and even rarer that they declare over it.

my average success is around 4 in 5 (ballpark) with the other 1 out of 5 rougly splitt 2/3 no war 1/3 war.
but thats from my memory. ive had about 3/4 tech stealing wars. but i have reloaded a couple of times as well, when i just couldnt afford war early on.

id say it averages that i attempt to steal every 6 turns or so. (when i include other spending)
imo is definbately a very viable strat for SID, also removes reliance on GL tactic, which shud give more freedom to choose other Civs other than those with alphabet.