2016 Fantasy Football

[SlowwHand]

I figure there are certainly 10 decent starting QB's.

[rah]

Yeah, in our league he went in the 8th round as a back up.

[-Jrabbit]

Yeah, I took him as the 10th QB overall at FFZ, basically to cover the first 4 weeks for Brady.

Won that league last year with Rivers at the helm.

[Ben Kenobi]

Won that league last year with Rivers at the helm.

I didn't get him till the eighth round. Ridiculously undervalued. Now he's undervalued, but not by that much of a margin.

I had his true value at the end of the first round, tbh. So he's still probably the most undervalued player out there.

[-Jrabbit]

I agree Rivers is undervalued, but there are at least a dozen playable QBs this year.

In 2015, 12 QBs were over 4K yds, and that's without Rodgers, Luck, Big Ben, or Cam. Similarly, 11 had over 30 TDs throwing. On the high end of that scale, no one had 5K yards, and no one had 40 TD passes.

The days of Brady and Manning being head and shoulders above the rest are over (for now). The differential between QB1 and QB10 has shrunk so much that, as far as draft value, calling any QB a 1st-rounder this year is a bit of a stretch. IMHO.

[Ben Kenobi]

I agree Rivers is undervalued, but there are at least a dozen playable QBs this year.

Sure, but Rivers was QB2 last year by our measurements with Brady being suspended. QB2 in the late first round is not a stretch. This year is the first that we've not seen a QB go in the first round at least in Poly IDP draft.

In 2015, 12 QBs were over 4K yds, and that's without Rodgers, Luck, Big Ben, or Cam. Similarly, 11 had over 30 TDs throwing. On the high end of that scale, no one had 5K yards, and no one had 40 TD passes.

Yep, but Brees and Brady were above the crowd.

The days of Brady and Manning being head and shoulders above the rest are over (for now). The differential between QB1 and QB10 has shrunk so much that, as far as draft value, calling any QB a 1st-rounder this year is a bit of a stretch. IMHO.

Brees and Rivers have the history of performing well. IMO, Brees, Rivers, Rodgers and Luck could all go in round 1 or 2. And nobody would blink an eye.

[-Jrabbit]

Yep, but Brees and Brady were above the crowd.

They (along with Rivers) were slightly better than the next tier, yes. But not head-and-shoulders above. That gap has been narrowed, as evidenced by Rivers '15 being #3 in QB points yet failing to get 30 TDs. As for where to draft who, that's obviously the whole point, eh? But yes, our league overvalues QBs vs standard settings, so you can make a case for early selection. It's just not as compelling as it was a few years back.

[Ming]

Yep... in past years, we did have QB's that could provide a strong point differential and were worth first round picks.
This year, the groupings are much closer and not providing the type of advantage as in the past.

This can be seen in the Draft here, and was also seen at our other draft where only Cam was picked in the first round.
In past years, at least 3 QB's were always taken in the first round.

[rah]

I had him slated 7th round, btw, accounting for the usual Rivers prejudice here.

If you thought that you should have taken advantage of it. That's the true skill in drafting, judging the other managers and using it.
You drafted Drew probably higher than most. He went a little later in our draft (4th qb picked) and was not the first or second quarterback taken in most mock drafts.
You could have taken another value position and waited for the a later round and taken Rivers knowing due to the prejudice here that he would go later.

Not saying which works out better in the end due to all the uncertainties but that is usually the sign of a better manager.

You CORRECTLY judged your fellow managers but didn't take advantage of it.

[Ben Kenobi]

If you thought that you should have taken advantage of it. That's the true skill in drafting, judging the other managers and using it.

Did last year. Cousins is a drop of about 3, 4 percent.

You drafted Drew probably higher than most. He went a little later in our draft (4th qb picked) and was not the first or second quarterback taken in most mock drafts.

I have him slated as QB1, so drafting in the second round is not bad at all.

You could have taken another value position and waited for the a later round and taken Rivers knowing due to the prejudice here that he would go later.

True, but now I have QB locked down and paying less than I did last year with A Pete in round 1. Not too shabby.

You CORRECTLY judged your fellow managers but didn't take advantage of it.

Getting QB1 and RB1 off my list ain't bad in my book.

Highest marginal pick utility for pick number 2 would be QB1, you literally could not have a better marginal pick utility for that pick. You could lower your pick utility by picking up RB2 in that position, however, that would increase your risk for very little marginal gain from Jonathan Stewart.

Not worth it, IMO. Risk increase of not getting Brees >> getting a better RB2 than Stewart.

Slowwy has my picks. I'm at work today.

[rah]

In our league Peterson was the the 6th RB picked in the middle of the 2nd round.
I picked him with the 2nd pick last year and I passed on him this year since he's no longer a 3 down back. So he doesn't get the receptions he used to get. 5 other of our managers agreed.
The only reason he led the league in rushing was he was one of the only ones that played in all 16 games. I'm not willing to bet on that this year.
Also Brees was the the 4th QB picked in the 3rd round. But I'll admit he had more love in most of the mock drafts.
So if they were both #1 on your list, I and it seems many others, would question your list, but it's all opinion. There is no definitive right. That's why we play the game. I'd wish you luck but since I have neither, I'll be rooting for them to suck. And I'm sure many would question a few of my picks.

[Ben Kenobi]

I'd wish you luck but since I have neither, I'll be rooting for them to suck.

LOL I've been rooting for Peterson to suck for ages. Also, cancellations suck!

[Ben Kenobi]

Sorry guys for the delay!

[Flatlander Fox]

PM sent to Ben.

Goodnight!

[-Jrabbit]

Sorry guys for the delay!

To be fair, very unusual for you. We're making good, steady progress.