Vancouver Canucks 2013 stanley cup run!

[Ben Kenobi]

Last time the Canucks came out on the plus side in PPs in a series was four years ago.

Says it all. Says it all. 7th most penalized team of all playoff teams (and about the average) this year. Number one in opposition penalty ratio.

If you look at the regular season, the Canucks are about average in terms of penalties. If the games were called fairly in the playoffs we'd expect to see the Canucks on the plus side in the playoffs for at least half of their series. Instead, we see that in the last 8 playoff series, the Canucks have gone 0/8...

That's got a 0.3 percent chance of happening randomly. In 256 playoff series, you'd expect to see it once. Over 4 years, that would be:

8(4) + 4(4) + 2(4) + 4 = 32 + 16 + 8 + 4 = 60 series.

[Ming]

Again, you are making the assumption that fair means equal. Penalties are not something that falls under random distribution that should equalize over time.
When your players do stupid things and break the rules, they get called for penalties. And when your team does it more than the other team, they get more penalties then the other team.

This is not about probability, this is about a team full of thugs and morons getting penalties for breaking the rules.
So stop pulling numbers out of your ass.

Your team sucks and has been outplayed.

[Ben Kenobi]

Again, you are making the assumption that fair means equal.

Not so. I'm making the assumption that the game should be called the same way between the playoffs and the regular season. In the regular season the Canucks are about average for infractions.

Going from this assumption and this assumption only - you can conclude that the Canucks should see calls be even in the playoffs. You would be suspicious if a team that was average for penalties started getting called for nothing at all.

Again, 8 series. The Canucks ended up with more penalty time than their opposition in all 8 series. Given a 1/2 chance of being on either side of the equation - math says that the streak of 8 series would be expected to be seen once out of every 256 playoff series.

That's just simple math. Given that the sample is only 60 playoff series, you can conclude there's no chance of this being simple random distribution. There is something going on here.

Penalties are not something that falls under random distribution that should equalize over time.

Hence the accusation of bias.

This is not about probability

This is everything about probability.

Your team sucks and has been outplayed.

Not on Corsi - which measures 5/5 play. Take the refs out - the Canucks have the higher Corsi rankings than San Jose.

Again, all the numbers add up. There is bias against the Canucks. If it were about the Canucks taking penalties, then you'd expect to see similar behaviour across the regular season. That - we do not see. Only in the playoffs do we see such a skewed ratio.

[Sava]

Again, you are making the assumption that fair means equal. Penalties are not something that falls under random distribution that should equalize over time.
When your players do stupid things and break the rules, they get called for penalties. And when your team does it more than the other team, they get more penalties then the other team.

This is not about probability, this is about a team full of thugs and morons getting penalties for breaking the rules.
So stop pulling numbers out of your ass.

Your team sucks and has been outplayed.

HE SHOOTS AND SCORRRES

[-Jrabbit]

Last time the Canucks came out on the plus side in PPs in a series was four years ago.

Says it all.

Yes, but not in the way you think. It says that Vancouver consistently breaks the rules more than their playoff opponents. Almost like it's part of their culture, or how they are coached.

In fact, if your "probability" assessment shows anything, it's that the Canucks' consistent playoff failings are cause-based. I would tend to point the finger at the coaches, who seem incapable of learning from past mistakes.

One more note: In professional sports, true champions rise above the officiating.

[Ben Kenobi]

I haven't seen diving this bad since this. This actually seems more real...

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x5bi5e_shawn-michaels-mocks-hulk-hogan-by_sport#.UYmNV50o7IU

[Ben Kenobi]

Yes, but not in the way you think. It says that Vancouver consistently breaks the rules more than their playoff opponents.

Then why isn't that the case for the regular season?

Almost like it's part of their culture, or how they are coached.

Then why isn't that the case during the regular season?

In fact, if your "probability" assessment shows anything, it's that the Canucks' consistent playoff failings are cause-based.

Indeed. It shows that this *isn't* just random bad luck. It demonstrates that the refereeing has been so bad for so long, that it proves that there is substantial bias against the Canucks.

One more note: In professional sports, true champions rise above the officiating.

If I do this analysis of past NHL champions how much would you wager that none of them 'rose' above the officiating?

[Ben Kenobi]

Ott/Mon : 33/39 = 6
Stl/Las : 16/19 = 3
Nyr/Wash : 13/16 = 3
Pits/Nyi : 17/19 = 2
Anh/Det : 18/19 = 1
Min/Chi : 11/11 = 0
Bos/Tor : 17/17 = 0

San/Van : 10/21 = 11

Says it all, doesn't it.

The differential for Vancouver/San Jose is > the differential for 6/7 series. Combined.

Standard deviation of around 4 so about 3 standard deviations.

99.73 percent chance again. So we get the exact same number.

[Ming]

Indeed. It shows that this *isn't* just random bad luck. It demonstrates that the refereeing has been so bad for so long, that it proves that there is substantial bias against the Canucks.

It's not about bad luck... it's all about BAD PLAY. All it proves is that the Canucks haven't learned their lesson. The fact that this has been going on for so long proves it's the players, not the league or all the different officials involved with the games.

Only a moron would point to a league conspiracy vs seeing the facts.

The facts here are quite simple. You play stupid, you get called for penalties.
And the Canucks play stupid.

[Ming]

Says it all, doesn't it.

Yep... it sure does.
Vancouver has more stupid players and thugs than any other team in the league.
Thanks for proving it.

[Ben Kenobi]

Vancouver has more stupid players and thugs than any other team in the league.

Ott/Mon : 33/39 = 6
San/Van : 10/21 = 11

Not so.

Not even close.

Take 3 penalties away from the Canucks and they are right on their season average. So they are about 1/7th about 21 percent overcalled. San Jose on the other hand is about 80 percent undercalled.

[Ming]

Doesn't change the fact that they have more stupid players and thugs than SJ.

There is no conspiracy here... Just more stupid plays.

[Ben Kenobi]

It's not about bad luck... it's all about BAD PLAY. All it proves is that the Canucks haven't learned their lesson. The fact that this has been going on for so long proves it's the players, not the league or all the different officials involved with the games.

Why then don't we see it in the regular season? If it's the players, we'd expect it to show up there. We don't.

Only a moron would point to a league conspiracy vs seeing the facts.

If I can prove that it's not random, that there's systematic bias against the Canucks, then yes, I'm going to go with what the stats actually show. Do the stats show that what is happening to the Canucks isn't random? Absolutely. Do the stats show that this differential doesn't exist during the regular season, with the same players? Absolutely. So what explanation is there for this discreprency.

And the Canucks play stupid.

Then why did Sedin get a penalty against off the faceoff dot while the Sharks tossed a puck out of their end during a penalty kill? That's a penalty right there. You can't pick up a puck and toss it out of the zone?

All I want is a fair game. Call it fair or not at all.

[Ben Kenobi]

Doesn't change the fact that they have more stupid players and thugs than SJ.

How does that explain that San Jose is 80 percent undercalled?

[Ming]

Just because there is a difference in number of penalties doesn't mean they are "undercalled"

It just means that one team is more stupid and makes more bad plays.