NFL 2013 Season Thread

[Ben Kenobi]

Bengals, Colts, and Packers fans might be blacked out since not enough tickets have been sold. Of this weekend's games, only the Eagles have sold enough tickets.

Apparently having all the games played in cold weather areas isn't exactly conducive to ticket sales.

[snoopy369]

What does Cutler provide that McCown does not? I'm happy to see the Bears spending money on Cutler to find out that they never really needed him in the first place. I believe I said they were trading away the better QB in Orton and that Orton was never the problem. I stick with that. Is an 8 million dollar insurance policy really what's going to improve the Bears?

Cutler provides a quarterback who is highly physically talented, and at least apparently able to learn the position, which is Trestman's great skill (see Gannon, Rich). McCown was a nice guy, and I'm glad he gave us something to root for, but he's old, he has a history of being a terrible quarterback, and he's not ever going to start for an NFL team week one (unless the nominal starter is hurt in the preseason). Nobody who knows football would suggest otherwise.

Cutler realistically is someone who could be a top NFL QB physically, if his mental issues are corrected. If Trestman says he can do that, I see no reason to disagree. I wish the Bears had signed somebody cheaper because I think the value added for a good QB is not that great in a Trestman offense - sort of like the White Sox really never paying big money for starting pitching because Don Cooper can turn anybody into a temporary star - but Cutler is a very good QB and capable of winning us a significant number of games. He was 13th in DVOA this year, so it's not like he was bad - even in only half-ish of a season, he was a top-half QB. Give him a full season, as our newly amazing OL should be able to do, and another season of Trestman's coaching, and who knows.

As a side note, Orton is not a good QB, as the fact that he was unable to hold a starting job should indicate. He was a competent QB for a team who just needed competence, but he wasn't a highly talented QB. He probably should be a backup on a team that has a passing-focused offense - as he is.

[Ben Kenobi]

Cutler realistically is someone who could be a top NFL QB physically, if his mental issues are corrected

Maybe five years ago. He's thrown for 4k plus only once. Over the last 3, he's been injured twice. It's looking like that 4k+ was an aberration and that his true level is about 3.5k, and a mediocre QB when compared with his contemporaries.

Active passer rating by career.

Rodgers
Manning
Rivers
Romo
Brady
Brees

(The big six). Hey, lookee that. Romo's right up there.

The middle three:

Roethlisberger
Ryan
Schaub

The bottom half:

Newton
Hill*
Carson Palmer
Garrard*
Dalton
Cutler
Flacco
Stafford
Hasselbeck
Campbell
Luck
Eli Manning
Smith
Cassell
Orton
Bradford
Tannehill
..................................................

Sure, Cutler's better than Bradford and Tannehill. But this ranking also puts him above Luck. He's also contemporary with Dalton (who's already better + younger), Flacco (about the same), and Stafford. He's at the peak of his career stats before a drop.

Cutler's really nothing special. He's QB 13 by this active rank, giving the Bears zero competitive advantage at the QB position. He's better than Eli, sure, but that's not saying much. I'll concede that he's younger than McCown, that's for sure. And that he should be getting Flacco/Dalton/Stafford money.

[snoopy369]

Having a top-half QB is actually worth a ****-ton of money, or at least 32 NFL GMs collectively agree that is the case, even if 'career passer rating' were a logical determination of current ability (Carson Palmer? Ha, ha). Your cut-lines made no sense, unless you were intending to make Cutler look bad, in any event. Having a QB that is better than Ryan Tannehill is fairly important to having a successful team, hence the money.

[Ben Kenobi]

Having a top-half QB is actually worth a ****-ton of money, or at least 32 NFL GMs collectively agree that is the case

What ranking system do you propose that would put Cutler in the top 10 of Active QBs? He's relatively invarient regardless of the system. You said, "I believe he has the ability to be in the top ring of QB"? When was this? When he threw for 4.5k yards once?

If you were to look at the past three seasons - he does much worse than with a career ranking like this. I'm actually being quite generous to him.

And yes - Carson Palmer is the better QB, career wise. See what he's done with Arizona. Arizona is a better team here - and I doubt anyone would put Cutler above Luck. So that will put him in the mid tier.

There's a substantial dropoff from the top 6 and everyone else - you *can* really can get serviceable QBs on the cheap like Tannehill, for a fraction of what Flacco, Cutler, Stafford and Manning (all non playoff teams), provide. Of the top 6, only Romo isn't in the playoffs, and that's not because of Romo.

Top 13-15 isn't good enough to make the playoffs. It means that the Bears are going to have to be better in the other areas of their team than other playoff teams. That's what I mean by 'competitive advantage'. He's also in his decline phase now, so we should expect his numbers to drop.

Your cut-lines made no sense, unless you were intending to make Cutler look bad, in any event. Having a QB that is better than Ryan Tannehill is fairly important to having a successful team, hence the money.

Cutler has a career passer rating of about 84. Tannehill is at 80. Roethlisberger + Ryan + Schaub are at 88. Romo et all are all 93, 92. The distance between Cutler and Tannehill is equivalent to the distance between Cutler and Ryan/Roeslisberger/Schaub.

[Al B. Sure!]

Kyle Orton has never had a 4000 yard passing season and his career passer rating is 79.9. According to Ben, he should suck.


I was looking at ESPN's QBR system and since Palmer was brought up, apparently the best game since 2006 according to that system was Carson Palmer vs. the Bears in 2009. Palmer had a 99.9 QBR. He went 20/24 233yds 5TDs.

[SlowwHand]

Having a top-half QB is actually worth a ****-ton of money, or at least 32 NFL GMs collectively agree that is the case, even if 'career passer rating' were a logical determination of current ability (Carson Palmer? Ha, ha). Your cut-lines made no sense, unless you were intending to make Cutler look bad, in any event. Having a QB that is better than Ryan Tannehill is fairly important to having a successful team, hence the money.

Interesting that Romo gets blasted while Cutler gets praised. That's the kind of thing that makes everything said here suspect.

[Ming]

Top 13-15 isn't good enough to make the playoffs.

Gee... Flacco is Number 16 and Eli is 21 based on how you want to rank them... Don't both of them have Super Bowl victories?

[Al B. Sure!]

Look how high Matt Schaub is. And Hill? Shaun Hill? Why is he even on the list? He hasn't played in 3 years. Neither has Garrard.

I wonder where Newton would stand if Ben used something that wasn't passer rating which fails to include rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, fumbles, or sacks. One would think Newton's AVERAGE of 677yds and over 9 rushing touchdowns per season, not included in the passer rating calculation, would boost his overall worth. If each one of his 28 rushing TDs were a 1yd pass for a TD, his passer rating jumps from 86.4 to 92.7.

Really puzzled with Ben's list anyway. Not only does it include some strange choices, but it's 26 QB's long, yet the bottom half starts with the 10th QB?

And that he should be getting Flacco/Dalton/Stafford money.

Wut?

Dalton isn't even in the same universe as Stafford in terms of getting paid. Dude, Dalton is on a 4-year $5.2M contract. Stafford's guaranteed money alone is 10 times that.

Did you forget that Stafford was a 1st overall pick during the ridiculous rookie payscale and Dalton was a second rounder on the new CBA?

[SlowwHand]

Gee... Flacco is Number 16 and Eli is 21 based on how you want to rank them... Don't both of them have Super Bowl victories?

No QB ever won a Super Bowl by themselves. A Super Bowl is a cumulative effort.

[Al B. Sure!]

No QB ever won a Super Bowl by themselves. A Super Bowl is a cumulative effort.

So we agree that Troy Aikman was a mediocre QB on a really good team?

[SlowwHand]

No, he was a good QB with a good team. I don't think I ever said Troy Aikman won anything by himself, but keep twisting what I say.

This is why, in spite of my best efforts to like you, I always return to the "you suck" line of thought.

[Ben Kenobi]

Gee... Flacco is Number 16 and Eli is 21 based on how you want to rank them... Don't both of them have Super Bowl victories?

Good question. The Bears had the number 3 ranked defense in 2012. If Cutler were merely the equal to Eli and Flacco, why didn't he add a superbowl ring too? He was healthy.

The Bears were even 7-1 halfway through the season. What more did Cutler need?

Let's review, boys and girls.

Game 9 - Texans vs Bears. Texans win. 13-6.

Cutler's line: 18-33 134 and 2 INTs. Bears drop to 7-2.

Game 10 - Niners vs Bears. Niners win 32-7.

Cutler's line: 14-22 107 1 TD and 2 INTs. Bears drop to 7-3.

Game 12: Bears beat Vikings 21-14.

This was a grudge game. Here, Cutler threw for 23-31 and 188 yards, beating Ponder.

Game 12 against the Seahawks. Seahawks win in OT.

This is a team loss, as the Seahawks beat them in QB, RB, Run D and Pass D. Once again, Cutler is the 2nd best QB. Bears drop to 8-4.

Game 13: Vikings 21-14.

Now, in this game, Ponder threw for 91 yards. 91 yards. And yet, Jay Cutler threw for 260, 1 TD and 2 picks and got benched for Campbell. Bears drop to 8-5.

Game 14: Packers win 21-13.

Jay Cutler's line, 12-21 135 1 TD and 1 Int. Bears fall to 8-6.

So let's put this in perspective. 6 weeks. The 7-1 Bears drop 5 of 6. The only win is where Cutler manages to beat out Christian Ponder, barely. This is with an excellent Run offense and the third best D in the NFL.

Why doesn't Cutler have a ring? Because of the November to remember. That's why, Ming. This was his best shot at getting one. Amazing Bears D. Good Running and he was healthy. They were 7-1 halfway through. All they had to do was beat the Ponder-lead Vikings twice, or the Pack once and they were in with a home playoff game. Instead?

Cutler played crap and they lost, finished third and were out of the playoffs.

[Ben Kenobi]

Look how high Matt Schaub is.

Yep. Schaub's quite underrated. Someone's getting a good deal now that Kubiak is gone and Houston has imploded.

And Hill? Shaun Hill? Why is he even on the list? He hasn't played in 3 years. Neither has Garrard.

Still active as backups. I think that should hammer home just how mediocre Cutler is.

I wonder where Newton would stand if Ben used something that wasn't passer rating

Look at that top six, again. Rodgers, Manning, Rivers, Brady, Romo and Brees. The elite passers of the NFL. Newton's good, but a cut below.

If each one of his 28 rushing TDs were a 1yd pass for a TD, his passer rating jumps from 86.4 to 92.7.

He's a QB son. We're evaluating QBs.

Really puzzled with Ben's list anyway. Not only does it include some strange choices, but it's 26 QB's long, yet the bottom half starts with the 10th QB?

It's not my list. Its the active list of QBs ranked by career passer rating. I'm evaluating Cutler's ability as a passer. His ranking doesn't change too much, and I selected this one because it was generally more fair to Cutler.

Dalton isn't even in the same universe as Stafford in terms of getting paid.

Well then, his agent should change this. He's more productive than Stafford.

Dude, Dalton is on a 4-year $5.2M contract. Stafford's guaranteed money alone is 10 times that.

Perhaps he needs a new agent.

Did you forget that Stafford was a 1st overall pick during the ridiculous rookie payscale and Dalton was a second rounder on the new CBA?

I'm simply stating that given his overall career value - that he has performed at a similar level. Perhaps the fact that his contract is so reasonable is the competitive advantage that the Bengals gain over non-playoff teams like the Bears and Lions.

My point is exactly shown by Dalton. You don't have to spend Cutler money to get Cutler level performance.

[Ben Kenobi]

Kyle Orton has never had a 4000 yard passing season and his career passer rating is 79.9. According to Ben, he should suck.

That compares with Cutler who has just one 4000 yard passing season. He's not a great QB - but Cutler is no better with the Bears. Do you really want me to calculate Cutler's Bears numbers vs Orton's career numbers? It doesn't help your argument.

I was looking at ESPN's QBR system and since Palmer was brought up, apparently the best game since 2006 according to that system was Carson Palmer vs. the Bears in 2009. Palmer had a 99.9 QBR. He went 20/24 233yds 5TDs.

I don't use ESPN's system. I use the regular Passer Rating.