Apolyton Fantasy Football (not soccer damnit)

[-Jrabbit]

The Arizona backfield is a disaster. They will be starting a 4th-stringer, who will share time with the likes of LaRod Stephens-Howling.

Stay away.

[Al B. Sure!]

Any one know whats going on with the Arizona backfield? They have had alot of injuries leading up to the game against the Bills this week and the the Bills are #30 against the rush.

Fantasy is about talent meeting opportunity. The opportunity is there in spades. But the talent?

The other matter is that the Cardinals offensive line is so bad.

Beanie had only 76 yards at 2.6 ypc over 3 games. Ryan Williams had 164 at 2.8 ypc over 5 games. Neither of them scored a single TD.

If Wells and Williams looked that terrible and they're the team's best backs, it doesn't matter who plays RB for the Cardinals... you'll get zilch out of them fantasy-wise.

[Sparrowhawk]

Now that 30th ranked Buffalo Defense on the other hand could be a cheap pickup for a team that needs them for a bye week and they might actually look good against Arizona....don't expect much for more than a week however, regardless of how good they look against the Cardinals.

[SlowwHand]

They're contacting Emmitt. Does that tell you anything?

[Al B. Sure!]

Now that 30th ranked Buffalo Defense on the other hand could be a cheap pickup for a team that needs them for a bye week and they might actually look good against Arizona....don't expect much for more than a week however, regardless of how good they look against the Cardinals.

They've given up at least 45 points 3x this season! I wouldn't risk it. There's got to be better waiver wire defenses out there than the Bills.

The Bills can't cover anybody and they get little pressure on QB's (10 sacks) even with Mario Williams. That just plays to the Cardinals gameplan. An unpressured Kevin Kolb is an effective Kevin Kolb.

The Bills will probably force a fumble. That's about the only thing they're good at.

[Donegeal]

Who is going to carry the load? I figure it will be RBBC, but when whomever gets the start performs well against the #30 rush defense, I figure they will keep feeding him the ball (and checking down to him in the passing game).

I'm hearing conflicting reports. Some are saying it will be William Powell. However I have a report that he got injured in the loss to the Rams and he has 10 days to pass a concussion test; on top of that, I have reports that he's already good to go. I also have other reports that say it will be LaRod Stevens-Howling, who missed last week due to an injury but is back this week. Still other reports say that it will be an even RBBC between Powell, Stevens and Alfonso Smith.

None of the reports have any confirmation. Any of you guys seeing anything that I'm not?

[Al B. Sure!]

Stephens-Howling is 5'7" 180lbs. If he is expected to carry the load, the Cardinals will be down another RB pretty quickly.


30th worst run D notwithstanding, I don't see the offensive line being there to let an RB do anything. Wells and Williams averaged less than 3 yards a carry. In Stephens-Howling's most significant action this year, he had 8 carries for -14 yards... negative 14.

There's no reason to think when the Cardinals 31st ranked rushing offense meets the Bills 30th ranked rushing defense that the Cardinals will get the best of the matchup.


The Cardinals are going to have to call up Tim Hightower but considering how Shanahan opted for Ryan Grant over Hightower, Hightower may still not be 100%.

[Jaguar]

Yeah, Bears D has been incredible. Their *worst* week was Wk2 vs Green Bay, and they still got 23 pts. Been over 50 twice, 40+ another time.

I suspect defenses are slightly overpowered in these settings.

Please continue to monitor how you feel about the relative power of different positions. I am interested in collecting this data for next year.

[Al B. Sure!]

My D/ST team sucks ass. Bears on bye means I have nobody.

Fortunately, I play the Trollhawks this week

Unfortunately, he has Matt Ryan who I have in two other leagues


I just realized joncha has only 1 RB rostered who can play this week... David Wilson (MJD on bye, Wells/Williams IR, Best not cleared). We could give him the joncha treatment by taking all the RB's. I'm doing my part with 5 rostered RB's.

[-Jrabbit]

Please continue to monitor how you feel about the relative power of different positions. I am interested in collecting this data for next year.

Based on the standings, I have reason to be a huge fan of the defense settings.

Seriously, I really need to see the ebb and flow of the year. Yet it seems that a top defense reliably outscores, say, a top TE. So it could be that we collectively undervalued defenses in the auction based on old draft habits. In fact, only 3 defenses went for more than $3 (SF $9, Chi and Balt, $5).

General comment: It just feels bizarre to have a 10-point week from a QB, multiple starters on bye, and still score 200+ points.

[Jaguar]

It's also bizarre to have a defense that has scored as many passing TDs as it has allowed. Enjoy it while it lasts. In essentially every fantasy scoring system, the Bears have been the most overall-valuable choice so far, and it's not particularly close. I did a quick calculation on how the Bears stack up vs an elite QB pick in my scoring vs Yahoo! standard scoring.

Yahoo default:
7.3 ppg between QB1 (Drew Brees, 24.9) and QB12 (Joe Flacco, 17.6)
11.0 ppg between DEF1 (Chicago, 19.6) and DEF12 (San Diego, 8.6)

Jaguar:
11.5 ppg between QB1 (Matt Ryan, 40.79) and QB12 (Matt Stafford, 29.29)
19.4 ppg between DEF1 (Chicago, 43.01) and DEF12 (San Diego, 23.61)

Take the ratio of Chicago's points over baseline to the QB's points over baseline, and you get that the Bears have been worth about 150% of Drew Brees in standard scoring, but 176% of Matt Ryan in Jaguar scoring. I conclude that the Bears are, in fact, somewhat more powerful in Jaguar scoring than in Yahoo! default. The bigger deal, though, is that the great-but-not-brilliant defenses have been substantially buffed. Houston has been worth 47% of Drew Brees in standard scoring, but Seattle has been 77% of Matt Ryan in Jaguar scoring. That's a more substantial buff.

Our managers seem to have absorbed this information, though. Yahoo! experts tend to treat defenses as trivial picks. In a 12-team Yahoo! and Rotowire experts league with standard scoring, we see one defense go in the 8th, and one in the 12th. Only twelve defenses, total, were picked. In our league, fourteen defenses went by the end of the twelfth round alone. It looks like people are internalizing the higher value of defenses.

Lastly, if Seattle DEF being worth 77% of Matt Ryan seems high to you, then wait another few games and try the comparison again. The elite QBs will hold their value much better over longer periods of time. By the end of the season, a top defense should be worth more like 60% of what a top QB is worth.

[SlowwHand]

Get back to me on that thought. You're talking the health of one vs. the health off 11.

[snoopy369]

We'll see what the health of one means to HOU in the next few weeks.

[Guynemer]

Leading the Auction League in scoring.

Sitting at 2-3.

I HATE THIS ****ING GAME

[-Jrabbit]

Ah, I've been waiting for that post.