Fantasy Football Discussion Thread

[Jaguar]

1. It takes a really good back to be above-average over hundreds of carries. +5% on hundreds of carries is really good. Use FO's cumulative metric; it's called DYAR. See if you can figure it out.
2. You're blatantly cherrypicking. Or am I really to believe that you entirely forgot about, say, Chris Johnson? You might have heard of him. He's the league's best running back, and his DVOA has been very high for three consecutive years.

[Ben Kenobi]

Umm yeah... real winners that bunch!

As a McGahee owner, the first half of the season, (thanks EPW), I'll testify that he actually was very fantasy relevant. Enough so that he was my number one back, ahead of LT. I'm not surprised DVOA would rank him highly. However, I also wasn't willing to risk the number of touches resulting in TDs, at least not with a draft pick.

[Ben Kenobi]

2. You're blatantly cherrypicking. Or am I really to believe that you entirely forgot about, say, Chris Johnson? You might have heard of him. He's the league's best running back, and his DVOA has been very high for three consecutive years.

And what about McCoy? If DVOA is a good assessment tool, what has changed about him this year? DVOA is like anything else, a measure of effective yards, that helps show us who got the tough yards, and who we can count on next year to do the same. However, past performance is no indicator of future performance.

[Ben Kenobi]

The top 5 RB's so far in yards per game are AP, Foster, Mendenhall, McFadden, and Bradshaw.

Albert, remember this is PPR, so it's probably best to convert to the scoring system.

Edit, Harrison survives another cut, for another week sucks up a roster slot.

Lets go with Admiral Armbar again.

[Al B. Sure!]

1. It takes a really good back to be above-average over hundreds of carries. +5% on hundreds of carries is really good. Use FO's cumulative metric; it's called DYAR. See if you can figure it out.
2. You're blatantly cherrypicking. Or am I really to believe that you entirely forgot about, say, Chris Johnson? You might have heard of him. He's the league's best running back, and his DVOA has been very high for three consecutive years.

Umm... CJ's DVOA the year before he was CJ2K was 9% which is marginally higher than Shonn Greene's last year and well below the guys you describe.

Jacobs and Ward got hundreds of carries and they had the #3 and #2 DVOA's on their big years but the next year sucked.

You're not making a compelling argument if I can easily find examples that destroy your hypothesis that the previous year's DVOA is good indicator of next year's performance.

In this year alone, the performances of McCoy, Mendenhall, and McFadden who all had NEGATIVE DVOA'S show there's a definite problem with using DVOA to determine how good a player will be next year.

[Al B. Sure!]

Also, Jag, care to take my gentleman's wager?

Matter fact, I'm going to make a prediction right now and here that Foster is going to look very pedestrian by year's end. He has racked up enough yardage so far that he's bound to finish the season with a good final tally but he's going to have a lot of sub-100 yard rushing games and a lot of sub-4.0 ypc games. I'm predicting 7 of the next 10 games will see him fall below one of those two metrics, either less than 100 yards or less than 4.0 ypc.

[Jaguar]

That's a stupid bet. The metric is far too difficult for even the best backs to achieve.

LaDainian Tomlinson is the last tailback to win the MVP award. He failed to reach that metric six times. Shaun Alexander, the MVP before that, also failed to reach it six times. Barry Sanders in his final season failed to reach it nine times.

I'm sure Foster will fail to reach it seven times. He could do that and still have one of the best running back seasons in history.

He's not going to quite get there; he'll have about 1480 yards on the season - about 84.5 yards per game for the rest of the season.

[Al B. Sure!]

That's a stupid bet. The metric is far too difficult for even the best backs to achieve.

LaDainian Tomlinson is the last tailback to win the MVP award. He failed to reach that metric six times. Shaun Alexander, the MVP before that, also failed to reach it six times. Barry Sanders in his final season failed to reach it nine times.

I'm sure Foster will fail to reach it seven times. He could do that and still have one of the best running back seasons in history.

He's not going to quite get there; he'll have about 1480 yards on the season - about 84.5 yards per game for the rest of the season.

Right now, he's on pace for 1693 yards. I bet he'll have less than 1400 yards. I just don't buy him coming out of nowhere and being one of the league's top backs. I have a feeling if Slaton was in there or Ben Tate, they'd do just as well. Look at how Derrick Ward looks when he comes in to spell Foster.

I think Foster is a mirage and even with everything going for him and his high numbers he's tallied so far it still won't be enough for him to exceed 1400 yards.

[MRT144]

2-4, 3rd most points in the league, and didn't get dinged for failing to put Calvin in. Too bad I'm still -2 from .500

[Imran Siddiqui]

Jag, you can say all that now retroactively and you can point to stuff about a lot of guys who have blown up. Arian Foster truly had no reason to blow up. You took a gamble (which was cheap because people were relatively low on him) and it paid off but I don't believe you can say "I looked at the data and saw he would be a star" because there was absolutely no reason to think he would turn into anything.

What nonsense. Just about every fantasy football publication had Foster picked as a great sleeper pick at RB. I was pissed when he was picked right before I was planning on getting him (I thought I timed it right).

[-Jrabbit]

What's interesting about Houston RBs is the fact that, 2 years previous, Steve Slaton was the out-of-nowhere star, followed by a 2009 where he was a consensus FF 1st-rounder and, in season, epic fail.

Arrian Foster, on first blush, is following a similar arc. The key difference is, Arrian became the de facto load back once Tate got hurt in preseason - before we drafted. If Tate - an early draft pick - had stayed healthy, Houston would likely be just another RBBC team. 2011 will be interesting.

I would dispute Imran notion that "just about every" FF pub had Foster as a great sleeper pick. That was definitely true on the Interwebs, but I question it for print books, which have significant lead times (which is why I don't buy the print rags).

[SlowwHand]

The "print rags" serve a purpose. Veteran analysis is valid, but on all it's the same as watching the movement on betting lines.

[Al B. Sure!]

Question for you Chicagorillas... how is the Bears Run D holding up? I know the Giants ran all over them and Carolina did alright but those were games with immense failure at the Bears QB position. Seattle also ran well, however, last week, something which they haven't been able to do all season (it wasn't just Lynch; Forsett had 10 for 67).

How are Ryan Torain's prospects this week? Do the Bears look susceptible to him?

[-Jrabbit]

Yes, they look susceptible. Quite.

I don't know if you can expect 20+ points again, but I would start him.

[Al B. Sure!]

Yes, they look susceptible. Quite.

I don't know if you can expect 20+ points again, but I would start him.

Over Bradshaw against Dallas and Jamaal Charles against Jacksonville though? I also have Marshall and Maclin who are definite starts and Fitz but can only start 4 total guys (though no more than 2 RB's). Crabtree is another one I have and he's suddenly on fire.

Last week I had retarded judgement and started Gaffney over Maclin and lost by 4 points. I have a tendency to get cute if left to my own devices (and over-value things like injuries in secondaries) so I want to hear from someone who's been watching the game for years.

Marshall and Maclin look definite starts. Now the question is which two? Torain, Bradshaw, Charles, Fitzgerald, Crabtree. Everything I've read has said that all those guys are must-start RB2's and WR2's but not RB1's or WR1's

I do this every year where I have a bunch of good guys but no one great and I screw myself up by starting the wrong guys each week I had 96 points on my bench this week with many bye players. 27 from Maclin, 22 from Torain, 11 each from Crabtree and Charles. Sigh...