Fantasy Football Discussion Thread

[Al B. Sure!]

So you're saying he drafts and manages better, but you're luckier?

To be fair, Jrabbit, my guys have performed WAAAAY below anyone's expectations. Randy Moss was a non-factor, Shonn Greene isn't even starting, Crabtree decided to take the month of September off for the second straight year, Brett Favre was terrible, etc. Those were 4 of my top 5 picks and I've been unlucky enough to have all of them suck but Favre to Moss and the improving Crabtree might save my season. I'm very lucky that I had an easy schedule so far because it's put me in a position to still be competitive if Favre to Moss develops into something.

[Al B. Sure!]

I meant the run. I'm 5-0. No Rivers to Gates this week. I'm relying on the Oakland run D to contain Frank Gore.

So that's what happened! I was watching my money league like what the hell is up with Rivers? He was giving me 2 fantasy points well into the 3rd quarter! I would have won for sure if I had not gotten cute and started Gaffney over Maclin Now, I have to pray Jacksonville can contain Chis Johnson and the Redskins LB's can contain Dallas Clark. Sigh.

I might have to start Flacco next week. Rivers without Gates... last time he didn't have Gates a few years ago, Vincent Jackson shined but Malcom Floyd was a non-factor this week.

It was bound to happen, I guess. Rivers was on pace for 5700 yards passing and that obviously wasn't going to happen. Something was going to happen to bring Rivers' numbers back to earth.

[Koyaanisqatsi]

Those were 4 of my top 5 picks and I've been unlucky enough to have all of them suck

Uh. Not sure that qualifies as "unlucky" at this point.

[Ben Kenobi]

It was bound to happen, I guess. Rivers was on pace for 5700 yards passing and that obviously wasn't going to happen. Something was going to happen to bring Rivers' numbers back to earth.

He had a decent night. Just not getting the +14 points of a Gates - Rivers TD has been what has had me beasting all year.

Of course, LT scored two and Collie put one up, so I'm back in it again!

[Al B. Sure!]

The two best receivers in football this week were virtually blanked... Miles Austin had 12 yards and Hakeem Nicks had 8. Just interesting. Everywhere I read, both were being expected to have huge games.

[OzzyKP]

To be fair, Jrabbit, my guys have performed WAAAAY below anyone's expectations. Randy Moss was a non-factor, Shonn Greene isn't even starting, Crabtree decided to take the month of September off for the second straight year, Brett Favre was terrible, etc. Those were 4 of my top 5 picks and I've been unlucky enough to have all of them suck but Favre to Moss and the improving Crabtree might save my season. I'm very lucky that I had an easy schedule so far because it's put me in a position to still be competitive if Favre to Moss develops into something.

I wasn't really convinced about Shonn Greene myself during the draft. I was very excited to get LT when I did. My gut was right.

[Al B. Sure!]

Uh. Not sure that qualifies as "unlucky" at this point.

What else would you call it? I don't think anyone here could honestly have predicted that Randy Moss, Green, Favre, and Crabtree were all going to be THIS bad.

You can act all high and mighty now and say well there were questions around those guys etc but we go back in time to August and for them to be my 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounders respectively in a very deep league, well that's about where or maybe even later than they should have gone.

Hell, check these summer rankings from ESPN's fantasy honcho, Matthew Berry:
http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=TMR100604

These are not positional but OVERALL rankings... Moss was the #10 fantasy PLAYER (he was our 20th or so player), Greene was 18th (he was like the 40th player taken in our draft), Favre was 42nd and 8th among QB's (and mind you, he was my 4th round pick in a 14-team league! So we're looking at like ~50th pick in our draft), and Crabs was 52nd (around 70 in our draft).

I got everyone significantly later than they were supposed to go... which should translate to them having been downright bargains!

Everyone has some top round guys who flame out but I've had all of my top 5 guys except for Gore be downright terrible. That's pretty unlucky if you ask me.

My guys performed way below consensus expectations and even below my bargain bin prices. What else would you call that?

[OzzyKP]

unlucky

[MRT144]

What else would you call it? I don't think anyone here could honestly have predicted that Randy Moss, Green, Favre, and Crabtree were all going to be THIS bad.

You can act all high and mighty now and say well there were questions around those guys etc but we go back in time to August and for them to be my 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounders respectively in a very deep league, well that's about where or maybe even later than they should have gone.

Hell, check these summer rankings from ESPN's fantasy honcho, Matthew Berry:
http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=TMR100604

These are not positional but OVERALL rankings... Moss was the #10 fantasy PLAYER (he was our 20th or so player), Greene was 18th (he was like the 40th player taken in our draft), Favre was 42nd and 8th among QB's (and mind you, he was my 4th round pick in a 14-team league! So we're looking at like ~50th pick in our draft), and Crabs was 52nd (around 70 in our draft).

I got everyone significantly later than they were supposed to go... which should translate to them having been downright bargains!

Everyone has some top round guys who flame out but I've had all of my top 5 guys except for Gore be downright terrible. That's pretty unlucky if you ask me.

My guys performed way below consensus expectations and even below my bargain bin prices. What else would you call that?

Bull****. I've been more unlucky because my actual performance hasn't been enough.

[Al B. Sure!]

Bull****. I've been more unlucky because my actual performance hasn't been enough.

You're right. But just because you've been unlucky in one way doesn't mean I haven't been unlucky in a different way

[Jaguar]

If fantasy football was about trying to get the highest-rated "consensus" guys, then we wouldn't even need to hold the draft. You're supposed to use your own judgment. And yes, it can be better than expert consensus. They're subject to systematic biases, and they don't necessarily have as good scouting as you do with your own eyes. Believe me, there's a reason I had Arian Foster in all three of my leagues. I had seen him play at the end of last year.

Slavish devotion to consensus charts is not a good thing, especially when they *aren't even geared to our league settings.*

But I will be completely fair to you and say that I thought Randy Moss would be really good too.

Greene, Crabtree, and Favre, though, were just bad picks. Gore, also, I wouldn't have made, but I recognize that he has done well.

I could explain each one of them, briefly:

Greene had 1 career reception, and this is a points-per-reception league. His running behind the Jets' excellent OL was not especially impressive. (+5.7% DVOA.) Compare that to Jamaal Charles and Pierre Thomas (+20.3%, +26.2%). Snoopy and I took those guys first, despite having access to the exact same fantasy cheatsheets as you. Use your eyes, use your stats, decide whether the player is actually exceptionally good before you make him your 3rd rounder.

Favre: far lower interception rate in 2009 (1.3%) than his career average. (3.3%). Historical precedent shows that a sudden improvement in interception percentage, for a long-established player, basically never "sticks." Remember how David Garrard and Jake Plummer each had great INT-free seasons? What happened to them in the years after? An increase in INT rate hurts yardage and TD totals everywhere, simply because drives get cut short. I'll tell you a secret - I was sure he was going to play the whole time, and I simply didn't want him, even at the spot where you got him.

Crabtree and Gore: The fantasy experts began to fetishize an offense without any reasonable cause for it. The SF offense was 32nd, 27th, and 23rd in DVOA the past three years. Even if that's an "improving trend," it's not a very good one. And worse, if you see a "trend" like that, it's actually something more like random luck, and you should expect the trend to reverse, not continue. Like, if the Colts ranked 1st, 3rd, and 4th in consecutive years on offense, would you expect them to continue down to 6th or 7th? Of course not. You expect them to return to the top of the league. The 49ers are roughly the same thing, except with the bottom of the league. Their rank of 27th this year is right in line with their historical average, and doesn't surprise me in the least.

[-Jrabbit]

It's basically a 2-pt game (pending overnight changes) with Ben, and we each have one guy going on MNF -- Tulloch for him and Bironas for me. Sitting Bowe will probably cost me another close loss. Of course, I blame Cutler. (Actually, I blame the Bears' O-line. But whatever -- my alternative, Favre, was just as bad.)

However, squeezing out a close win against the feared and undefeated Kenobis would shoot me up EPW's Luck Chart.

[Koyaanisqatsi]

My guys performed way below consensus expectations and even below my bargain bin prices. What else would you call that?

Pretty much what Jag said. I'd just throw in that "lucky" or "unlucky" in fantasy football are the same as in real football and comes down to things that are more or less random like fumble recoveries and injuries. For instance, it was unlucky that my primary QB, Kolb, was injured and lost his job when he has no history of injuries. It was not unlucky that the backup I picked, Palmer, has consistently sucked in recent years. Taking him was a gamble on TO/Ocho upside and I lost. Performance of players isn't lucky or unlucky, it just is...if you're good then you pick players that perform, if you're not you pick Shonn Greene.

Edit: And it's not about high horses, it's just the way it is. I'm not unlucky to be worried about having MJD vs. Chris Hope+3 points tomorrow night. He was supposed to be the second or third best player in the league. He hasn't been. Oh well.

[Ben Kenobi]

Won't be the first time I've been taken to monday night. Tulloch has been an absolute beast. Have to figure out what I'm going to do about my DBs though.

Man I hope Gates is alright. I have soo many players out next week with the Indy and Houston byes.

[Ben Kenobi]

What else would you call that?

Errors in your assessment process. I picked Jerome Harrison in the 6th round thinking that he would start in Cleveland and get serious touches even if the TDs were lacking. He was to be my number 4 RB behind a solid rushing attack of LT, FJax and SJax. That didn't happen. I've been able to patch over the pick with Tolbert who has been excellent, but he's basically a McGahee that I didn't need to spend a pick on.

My middle round picks of Floyd, FJax and Harrison have all been weak. It's worth noting that I picked them all based on my personal preferences without examining the draft for the best available player. Now, I'm expecting Fred Jackson to perform better now that he's in his rightful spot, but what am I to make of the rest?

Do I cut Harrison for roster space this week with the Houston and Indy byes?

I feel that my assessment of the first 4 rounds has been strong. My defensive drafting has been strong with the exception of Goldson (again a preference pick), my WRs have been very strong. So overall, my draft was pretty good.

What does that tell me about my middle rounds? I need to do a better job of assessing the second tier players. I can find great players late, sleepers who work out, but I have a hard time deciding between two players, both of whom are solid, but are a necessary part of a winning team. You need these second guys to shore up the team, week after week.