AHL- Apolyton Hockey League III-- Olympic edition

[Flubber]

The Flames remain tantalizingly close to a playoff spot. At 7-3-0 in their last 10 they HAVE been good enough to gain in most scenarios but Detroit was 7-2-1 while Nashville matched their 7-3-0--

Oh and all those strength of schedule discussions haven't really come to much yet since Edmonton is stubbornly winning while the Flames beat SJ and then lose to Minny ( a very very costly loss)

The Flames chances are still not great-- lets say they manage to go 7-2. I see this as optimistic (but possible) so that would give them 97 points. Here are the records the teams they are chasing would need to get to 97 points

Detroit 6-4
Colorado 5-5
Nashville 4-4
LA 4-7

The first 3 records are possible-- heck its probably even LIKELY that one of the top 3 there may be around .500.

But the bottom line is that a Flames team that has not shown itself to be consistently very good, needs to be very good down the stretch to have a chance. It is "possible" I just don't see it as likely. Its also possible that someone will falter completely but I wouldn't count on that.

Interstingly, the Flames best chance may be against Colorado. The Avs play the Flames in what will be a must-win for the Flames, plus the Avs have LA TONIGHT with a Phoenix and SJ back to back on the weekend. But I am not counting on anything-- I seem to recall a week or so ago, Nashville had a tough California swing and damn near swept the thing

[Flubber]

The Avs actually have a very tough schedule. I don't look at teams ahead as tough and teams behind as not-- instead I look to how teams are playing and what they ahve to play for -- In their next three the Avs have the team that is playing fine but still not secure in a playoff spot, then the red-hot Coyotes (please please wait before cooling down) and then a SJ team that is a bit embarrassed by their recent skid and who should be still motivated to play well. By March 31 Anaheim should KNOW they won't make it so you have to hope they have some spoiler fight left in them

OH and dang the Avs anyway. The Flames only win over them was probably the game they dominated least of their 5 prior games this season. In their 4 losses I seem to recall a lot of Flames dominance with an inability to beat Anderson who was other-worldly in those games. Reverse just one of THOSE results and it would be a very different picture.

But that s just "coulds, woulda, shoulda"-- I bet every team has a few games like that that they "should " have had

Wed Mar 24 LOS ANGELES COLORADO
Mar 27 COLORADO PHOENIX
Mar 28, 2010 COLORADO SAN JOSE
Wed Mar 31, ANAHEIM COLORADO
Fri Apr 2, 2010 CALGARY COLORADO
SAN JOSE COLORADO
Apr 6, 2010 COLORADO VANCOUVER
Apr 7, 2010 COLORADO EDMONTON
Apr 9, 2010 CHICAGO COLORADO
LOS ANGELES COLORADO

If the Flames come through their eastern road swing ok that game in Colorado on April 2nd COULD be a crucial contest -- Personally where the Flames are now, I am just hoping they can make it that they are playing meaningful contests down the stretch

Oh and I don't see any realistic scenario for St Louis, Dallas or Anaheim to bridge the gap. You saw the match for Calgary. Try the smae math if you are 5-7 points further back AND need to leapfrog the Flames. Those teams need to go undefeated the rest of the way to get to 96 or 97 pointsm and as I showed before, all the existing playoff teams can achieve that total without needing much more than an ok record down the stretch

[Flubber]

Wow

Holy "worst results possible for a Flame fan" batman

Detroit wins--ok I expect that-- Colorado wins-- again not that strange but did it HAVE to be in a shootout ???

The math just got a couple of points worse for the Flames against pretty much everyone (3 of the 4 that they could conceivably catch)

Optimism is not high

[Ben Kenobi]

My thought as well. Once again, Calgary takes it in the ***.

[Flubber]

My thought as well. Once again, Calgary takes it in the ***.

and a loss to the freaking NYI almost seals their fate. Its almost done. Too bad . . . they "should" be a playoff team. But they let go far too many games where they simply failed to score enough despite having more and better scoring chances. It just seemed too many of their forwards lacked the ability to finish

The math now is getting into the incredibly improbable range. hell Nashville has run away from everyone lately

so here it is

Flames 8GR
Detroit 4 points ahead 9GR
Colorado 6 points ahead 9GR
LA 7 points ahead 9GR
Nashville 8 points ahead 7 GR


If the freaking Flames did the impossible and went 8-0 down the stretch here are the records their opponents would need to match them

Detroit 6-3
Col 5-4
LA 4-4-1
Nashville 4-3

I see all of these records to be well within the capabilities of those 4 teams. Each of them have been at or above the required record through their last 10

[Kontiki]

I for one am shocked that the winning formula isn't to stack your team with a bunch of guys that weren't even wanted by the Leafs.

[Sparrowhawk]

I wonder how those players feel about just missing with the Flames, over being gone by a long shot with the Leafs? At the end of the day, it still means missing the playoffs either way.

[action=Sparrowhawk][/action]

[Asher]

I for one am shocked that the winning formula isn't to stack your team with a bunch of guys that weren't even wanted by the Leafs.

Yeah, it was ****ing retarded.

The Flames have no first-round pick this year either due to the Jokinen trade a while back, which also did not work out at all.

I'm hoping to see Daryl Sutter replaced this year, as he's had enough chances. I doubt it will happen, though

[notyoueither]

The magic number is now six (in points).

Go Leafs, go!

[Sparrowhawk]

I heard a rumour last night that Edmonton is offering Hemsky for the #2 pick in hopes of becoming the first team in league history to take 1st and 2nd pick overall.

Anyone else hear anything like this? Or think there could be any validity to it?

[action=Sparrowhawk][/action]

[Asher]

I doubt anyone would take Hemsky for the 2nd overall pick. You'd have to be extraordinarily stupid to make that deal.

Sounds like an Oiler fan dreaming out loud.

[notyoueither]

I heard a rumour last night that Edmonton is offering Hemsky for the #2 pick in hopes of becoming the first team in league history to take 1st and 2nd pick overall.

Anyone else hear anything like this? Or think there could be any validity to it?

[action=Sparrowhawk][/action]

There are a lot of rumours, but nothing reliable.

To begin with the draft order isn't set yet, and won't be until they hold the lottery close to the draft. So, who would they be offering Hemsky to?

I think it is a lot of noise.

[notyoueither]

I doubt anyone would take Hemsky for the 2nd overall pick. You'd have to be extraordinarily stupid to make that deal.

Sounds like an Oiler fan dreaming out loud.

A GM like Sutter who is willing to burn down the franchise to try to win now would do it.

I think a lot of the rumours are based on the assumption that Chiarelli is in that sort of position.

[Guynemer]

Sadly, it looks like curtains for the Flames.

[notyoueither]

I can tell you're all ripped up about that.