AHL- Apolyton Hockey League III-- Olympic edition

[Asher]

Sadly, it looks like curtains for the Flames.

Yep.

But the important thing is we have Stajan locked up...

[Guynemer]

I can tell you're all ripped up about that.

I'd much rather have the Flames in the playoffs than teams from freaking Nashville or Phoenix or San Jose or Los Angeles.

[notyoueither]

It is feasible for the Oilers to get another high pick (once the draft order is known) and Hemsky is likely enough (or a large part of enough) to get it done with at least one team.

Hall and Seguin are both good players, but neither is a Gretzky or Lemieux, nor an Ovechkin or Crosby. They are also a cut below Kane and others.

Here are their junior stats: GP, G, A, Pts

Crosby 62 66 102 168
Kane   58 62  83 145
Hall   57 40  66 106
Seguin 63 48  58 106

Gagner 53 35  83 118

I added Gagner's stats from his last year of junior for comparison.

I don't think it would be unreasonable for a team like the Bruins to trade the Leafs pick (assuming it ends up second) along with Ryder to Edmonton for Hemsky. That's a major upgrade for a team looking to win a Cup soon, and it leaves them with cash available for UFA's.

Perhaps a more likely scenario is that the Oilers 'win' the lottery (if they are not drawn, at least no other bottom five team is either) and they know the Bruins want Hall while they have decided they want Seguin, then they see if the Bruins will trade the Leafs second overall and their own (16 to 30 assuming they make the playoffs, or ~12 if they miss) for the first overall.

[Asher]

I don't think it would be unreasonable for a team like the Bruins to trade the Leafs pick (assuming it ends up second) along with Ryder to Edmonton for Hemsky. That's a major upgrade for a team looking to win a Cup soon, and it leaves them with cash available for UFA's.

I think the rose-coloured glasses are impacting your view here.

Hemsky is a decent player. He's an under a point-a-game kind of guy when he is healthy, but he is an injury-prone player. He's never, ever played a full NHL season.

I very, very much doubt he's a big target for acquisition by any team. He's also not exactly known for playing a very physical game or a very complete game, either. He's a fancy dangler who is perpetually underachieving to his potential.

He is simply not worth a top-10 draft pick...period.

Hemsky has 22 points this season. His best season ever is 77 pts. And that is 5 years ago. Hemsky has always been massively overrated by Oilers fans (and apparently management).

[notyoueither]

I believe you have your Flaming glasses on.

Seasons of 81, 74, and 72 games played do not make a player an injury risk. Part of shutting him down early this season was to properly repair his shoulder, so assuming he passes a physical there is no reason to avoid him due to injuries.

He is a point a game guy who is entering his prime time years and is under a very good contract for another two seasons, which would be the seasons that the Bruins are going to be looking to win, now.

As for his physical game, I believe you are mistaken. He is not known for throwing checks, but he is fearless going into hard areas on the ice and he can take a hit.

Also, part of what I outlined is a salary dump for the Bruins. There is considerable value in getting rid of underperforming $4 MM contracts, especially if the dumping team is a contender.

They may want another player as well, and that might not be unreasonable. It all depends on how bad the Oilers want Seguin or Fowler with the second high pick.

Finally, you have to consider the value of the players in the draft. Not every draft year has players of equal value. Alas for Oiler fans, there is no Crosby in this years class. At any rate, you do have to consider the strength of the draft class when you put a value on any pick.

Assume the Oilers pick first and take Hall. What is Seguin worth to the Bruins next year? Seguin was not ready for the World Junior team in Dec '09. Will he be the sort of player who will make a significant contribution to the Bruins in the playoffs of '11?

It comes down to the value the Oilers can offer. If the Bruins management consider the offer better than the pick (and that depends a lot on their opinion of the value of the player they would take with that pick) they make the trade. If not, then not.

[notyoueither]

One thing that speaks against it is that Boston really, really wants a shooter to replace Kessel. Hemsky is not that guy, and the Bruins may not put a high value on him as they already have some very good play makers.

But then again, they are set at centre. They really do not need Seguin assuming the Oilers take Hall at no 1. Would they want Fowler? Or do they have a Hickey in their sights? It really does come down to what the team thinks it can get with the pick, and the value they place on future vs now, and other factors (like salary dumps, etc.).

[Asher]

I believe you have your Flaming glasses on.

Seasons of 81, 74, and 72 games played do not make a player an injury risk.

He's been injured in every season he's played in, and the most recent injury took him out of the vast majority of the season. That makes him an injury risk. Add in the fact that he's coming off a season where he only played 22 games and is coming off surgery. How is this not a risk?

A player drafted 9 years ago without ever playing a full NHL season is an injury risk.

He is a point a game guy

The only time he's ever reached a point a game is this season, where the sample size is prohibitively small (22 pts in 22 games). He's never been a point a game guy outside of that.

who is entering his prime time years

That's just spin.

As for his physical game, I believe you are mistaken. He is not known for throwing checks, but he is fearless going into hard areas on the ice and he can take a hit.

Fearless, reckless, ineffective along the boards. All words that describe Hemsky and explain why he's an injury risk and why he's not known as an effective two-way player.

As I said, he's a good player but he's not worth trading a top 2 pick for. Not even close. Too many variables, too little proven production, too much injury risk, and coming off recent surgery to the shoulder (as I understand it). 2nd overall picks are incredibly valuable.

Every single year, Oiler fans tell us how this year is Hemsky's year. Every year he's a good player but never anything more. When you have a 2nd overall pick, you are looking at drafting exceptional player...

[Asher]

'Hemsky is not an injury risk'

2009/11/26	Left shoulder surgery, remainder of the season.
2009/11/11	Missed 2 games (shoulder injury).
2009/11/08	Shoulder injury, day-to-day.
2009/10/19	Missed 1 game (flu).
2009/10/16	Flu, day-to-day.
2009/01/18	Missed 10 games (concussion).
2008/12/30	Nose injury, day-to-day.
2008/04/05	Missed the last game of the regular season (knee injury).
2008/04/02	Knee injury, day-to-day.
2008/01/05	Missed 5 games (knee injury).
2007/12/29	Knee injury, day-to-day.
2007/12/27	Knee injury, day-to-day.
2007/12/05	Missed 2 games (knee injury).
2007/12/02	Knee injury, day-to-day.
2007/03/27	Missed 1 game (right shoulder injury).
2007/03/24	Right shoulder injury, day-to-day.
2007/03/23	Missed 8 games (right shoulder injury).
2007/03/04	Right shoulder injury, day-to-day.
2007/01/20	Missed 1 game (shoulder injury).
2007/01/18	Shoulder injury, day-to-day.
2007/01/17	Undisclosed, left Tuesday's game.
2006/12/15	Missed 8 games (right shoulder injury).
2006/11/30	Right shoulder injury, sidelined indefinitely.
2006/07/25	Re-signed as a restricted free agent by the Edmonton Oilers to a six-year contract.
2005/08/15	Re-signed as a restricted free agent by the Edmonton Oilers to a one-year contract.
2004/09/18	NHL lockout: Signed with the HC Pardubice of the Czech Extraleague.
2003/02/25	Missed 4 games (abdominal injury).
2003/02/22	Abdominal injury, day-to-day.
2003/02/18	Flu, day-to-day.
2003/02/05	Missed 2 games (abdominal injury).
2003/01/29	Abdominal injury, day-to-day.
2003/01/24	Missed 1 game (abdominal injury).
2003/01/22	Abdominal injury, day-to-day.
2003/01/16	Missed 0 game (pulled stomach muscle).
2003/01/14	Pulled stomach muscle, day-to-day.
2003/01/13	Pulled stomach muscle, left Monday's game.

[notyoueither]

81 ganes is a full season, effectively. Let's wait for the end of the season and look to see how many top players play 82.

74 and 72 games are fine. Missing 8 or 10 games is nothing major.

If you want to be pedantic, 71 points in 74 games is not PPG.

[Asher]

81 ganes is a full season, effectively. Let's wait for the end of the season and look to see how many top players play 82.

74 and 72 games are fine. Missing 8 or 10 games is nothing major.

I guess it's something you're used to. To me, a player who regularly plays 70-something games a season while missing 50+ games in the odd season is 'injury prone'.

[notyoueither]

He's missed 50+ games exactly once. That does not make him prone to anything.

70+ games is not a bad tally. Do you consider Datsyuk to be injury prone? Nash?

[Asher]

He's missed 50+ games exactly once. That does not make him prone to anything.

70+ games is not a bad tally. Do you consider Datsyuk to be injury prone? Nash?

Nash is mildly injury prone. Datsyuk is not. Hemsky is definitely.

Since the lockout, Datsyuk has missed 11 games.
Since the lockout, Nash has missed 41 games.
Since the lockout, Hemsky has missed 97 games.

[notyoueither]

In his first four years Datsyuk never played more than 75 regular season games.

[Asher]

I'm not interested in continuing a discussion with continually moving goalposts.

Fact is, Hemsky has missed a lot of games since the lockout and is regularly missing games for injuries. He's injury prone, and any argument to the contrary is nonsense. If you don't think missing 97 games over 5 seasons constitutes being injury prone, your definition is ridiculous.

Hemsky has missed 24% of all games since the lockout due to injury. What percentage do you think constitutes being "injury prone"?

[notyoueither]

No goal posts have been moved.

Playing 70+ games is nothing unusual for an NHL player.

Hemsky is missing a siginificant number of games in your count (60 of 97) due to he and the team electing to have a shoulder repaired early in a season.

An event in a single season does not make a player injury prone.