NFL - Are You Ready For Some Football?! - Regular Season

[Koyaanisqatsi]

The Bills had to fumble the ball away to give Brady a shot. Sure, Brady got them within 6, but the rest was all in the fumble.

Yeah, because once there's no other way the Pats could have gotten the ball back with 3 timeouts and the warning still left.

Of course it was a key fumble. But if you want to take that away, does that mean I get to take away Schobel's absolutely ridiculous pick-6, without which the Bills would have been getting the ball back already behind? It's been mentioned to you before, but football doesn't work that way.

[Ben Kenobi]

Yeah, because once there's no other way the Pats could have gotten the ball back with 3 timeouts and the warning still left.

If they had stopped the Bills, yeah I would have given credit to Brady. Key, timely fumbles aren't going to win you games every week.

Of course it was a key fumble. But if you want to take that away, does that mean I get to take away Schobel's absolutely ridiculous pick-6, without which the Bills would have been getting the ball back already behind? It's been mentioned to you before, but football doesn't work that way.

Brady was behind the whole game, up until the warning. That to me is a sign that the Pats have some serious problems. Say what you want about the Chargers, they were tied at the half. As for the pick-six, Brady gave up an INT. Poor decision on his part.

[-Jrabbit]

1. I have trouble believing that Rivers can't be successful under a different (and simpler) system. His stats are basically unchanged-to-slightly-better since Marty was run out of town. In fact, his completion % and TD % both went up last year.

2. Kaeding? WTF does the kicker have to do with the offensive system???

[snoopy369]

Slight nitpick, Thome had the highest OPS+ of any White Sox player this year .

On your last paragraph, so your impression is bad coaching has been what has ultimately doomed the Chargers? Of course a huge problem was LT running at only 3.8 yards per attempt. But perhaps that is offensive line issues as well.

Thome had been struggling of late; and if you assume Rios will play reasonably frequency due to his additional defense, Thome would sit quite a few games anyhow, so losing him isn't a huge deal. Certainly we don't make that trade if we're in first place, but it's not a big loss.

Coaching, maybe; more likely, inability to do the things that they'd done before, particularly on defense (PASS RUSH), and LT's lower YPC was certainly a lot of it - they couldn't count on consistent running from him, presumably due to a combination of OL and his age decreasing the number of big runs he could muster.

I don't think Sabermetrics in football = west coast offense explicitly, though certainly it's not a bad offense. The run game is very important statistically, with some medium range passes (8-15 yards) and some screens alongside a few long passes to keep safeties honest. However, having *consistent* rushing is the most important factor; just like in baseball, you get only 3 outs an inning, in football you get only 4 downs [and really 3 in most situations], and throwing one away on either an incomplete pass or a stuffed run is the worst thing you can do [short of a turnover]. I'd guess it's probably:
* Consistent running for 2+ YPC every rush, with very few stuffed runs
* Accurate passing, with less consideration of length
* 3rd down and 6 or less every time
* No turnovers or penalties

That formula is a very effective offense. Add in the defensive scheme, which focuses on secondary and pass rush, IIRC, to prevent the big play and force incompletions through pressure on the QB, and you have what I'd call a 'sabermetric' team.

[Ben Kenobi]

1. I have trouble believing that Rivers can't be successful under a different (and simpler) system. His stats are basically unchanged-to-slightly-better since Marty was run out of town. In fact, his completion % and TD % both went up last year.

This would be expected as a QB becomes experienced. Rivers is known for his accuracy and his 2-1 TD/INT ratio. He doesn't throw long bombs over 20 yards all that much, but the difference between Norv's system and Marty, is that Marty used to have him throw short stuff to get warmed up and then try some long ones. Norv pretty much always goes long.

2. Kaeding? WTF does the kicker have to do with the offensive system???

Kaeding is a high percentage kicker, who rarely kicks over 45 yards.

[snoopy369]

I have an incredibly hard time believing any coach in the NFL designs any element of his 'offensive system' around what kicker he has. Decides whether to go for a FG on 4th and 3 on the 38, sure. But that's a tactical decision, not strategic.

[Ben Kenobi]

Marty was notorious for going for it on 4th downs over handing it over to Kaeding when they were out of his range. He was also notorious for punting and putting a significant part of his offense on pinning the opposition behind the 10.

[snoopy369]

Yes, Ben. Now would you address the question?

[Imran Siddiqui]

I don't think Sabermetrics in football = west coast offense explicitly, though certainly it's not a bad offense. The run game is very important statistically, with some medium range passes (8-15 yards) and some screens alongside a few long passes to keep safeties honest. However, having *consistent* rushing is the most important factor; just like in baseball, you get only 3 outs an inning, in football you get only 4 downs [and really 3 in most situations], and throwing one away on either an incomplete pass or a stuffed run is the worst thing you can do [short of a turnover]. I'd guess it's probably:
* Consistent running for 2+ YPC every rush, with very few stuffed runs
* Accurate passing, with less consideration of length
* 3rd down and 6 or less every time
* No turnovers or penalties

That formula is a very effective offense. Add in the defensive scheme, which focuses on secondary and pass rush, IIRC, to prevent the big play and force incompletions through pressure on the QB, and you have what I'd call a 'sabermetric' team.

I also think that people forget that the late 80s/early 90s 49ers were running a slightly different offense than the early 80s 49ers. The addition of Jerry Rice and John Taylor allowed for slighly deeper routes (even though high percentage passes were the norm and run after the catch was stressed). Also the 49ers used to have very good running games with Roger Craig and then Ricky Watters.

[snoopy369]

Indeed; I think the 49ers success was as much due to Craig and their OL as due to Montana-To-Rice. Certainly a superstar like Rice can change a game in a minute, but Craig's solid running meant that Rice couldn't be doubleteamed as often [or tripleteamed], and meant that when Rice was effectively contained, the 49ers still could run themselves into wins.

[Ben Kenobi]

* Consistent running for 2+ YPC every rush, with very few stuffed runs

Sounds like LT.

* Accurate passing, with less consideration of length

Half and half for Rivers.

* 3rd down and 6 or less every time

Sounds like Martyball to me.

* No turnovers or penalties

Yep, again.

[Koyaanisqatsi]

If they had stopped the Bills, yeah I would have given credit to Brady.

[snoopy369]

Ben, you're missing (my) point. I'm not arguing anything about the offensive scheme, as I don't know the Chargers that well. I am arguing that their talents towards that scheme fell off some last year, and THAT caused problems. LT wasn't nearly as consistent as he had been years past, and their defense (in particular, Secondary) was very weak. Rivers' accuracy was actually very good (65.2%), and that's why they were 8-8 and not 4-12. Their inability to do the things they usually did [run consistently, defend the pass] meant they performed poorer than their talent should have let them to.

But it's certainly possible the offensive scheme had some influence on that; I have no idea there.

[Ben Kenobi]

That's all I'm saying snoopy. Norv's scheme is Coryell's offense which is very different from Martyball. Martyball had LT, first last and always. If you look at LT in seasons past, he got better the more work he had. With marty, he'd routinely see 30 carries in a game. Martyball stressed TOP.

Norv, on the other hand, does not run nearly as often as with Martyball. The scheme is drastically different.

LT wasn't nearly as consistent as he had been years past, and their defense (in particular, Secondary) was very weak.

Look at the Denver game at the end of last year from the Saints game earlier on. The Chargers routinely got behind and had to throw to catch up. All this contributed to fewer carries for LT. I'm convince that Norv is a better game manager than Schottenheimer, but I'm not yet convinced that his scheme is a good fit for the Chargers.

[Ming]

Brady was behind the whole game, up until the warning. That to me is a sign that the Pats have some serious problems. Say what you want about the Chargers, they were tied at the half. As for the pick-six, Brady gave up an INT. Poor decision on his part.

You can read the signs however you want, but frankly, you obviously weren't objectively watching (or not watching) the same game everybody else was.

It was obvious that Brady was VERY RUSTY after missing 52 weeks of football. For the first 2 and half quarters, he looked like a guy who hadn't played in a while. But when the chips were down, he started getting into the swing of things and started looking like Brady of old. I don't see the "serious problem", I see a QB who is only going to play more consistently in the future.

And you can harp all you want about the fumble... and use it as "proof", but only a moron would do so. First, it was an excellent strip play by NE. The guy just didn't drop the ball, it was knocked out by a good play... something they practice all the time. But more importantly, turnovers, kick off returns, bad calls by the officials, missed calls by the officials, defensive lapses, stupid decisions, and whatever are all part of the game, and whether they happen early or late, THEY HAPPEN. What is important is the score at the end of the game... period! Brady led the team to two touchdowns when the chips were down... For you to say he doesn't deserve credit because they needed a fumble to get the ball again is moronic at best. He was brilliant down the stretch... when he needed to be... and NE won a close game.

While the rest of the world gives credit where credit is due to Brady... only an idiot would ignore his excellent play in the closing drives.