MLB - 2010 Spring Training!

[snoopy369]

Kenny Williams has an amazing ability to fleece other GMs with relatively low risk to his team. Even when his moves don't turn out to be great ones, they typically have very little downside. Both of his moves this season were low risk, high reward; and for that matter, the worst thing he's done lately was the Nick Swisher trades, neither of which were really all that bad (despite his hot start for NY, he cooled back down to normal suckiness).

[Arrian]

Kenny Williams has an amazing ability to fleece other GMs with relatively low risk to his team

The Rios pickup is pretty good, especially if they play him in CF. Thanks for Swisher, though (Swish's overall numbers are just fine by me, especially for Wilson Betemit!).

-Arrian

[snoopy369]

Yeah, I sort of wish we still had Swish, but in the scheme of things, if that's the worst trade Kenny's made in a while, I'll take that in a heartbeat. I'm fairly sure most teams could come up with worse GM decisions without having to think too hard

[OzzyKP]

Jurrjens for Renteria

[Imran Siddiqui]

I'm going to give a cautious cheer to this news:
White Sox aquire Alex Rios via waivers

Assuming he reverts to form, this is a great deal. But, if he's hurt or something else is causing him to underperform that Toronto didn't disclose, this could be a problem.

Toronto loves this deal because it means Chicago gets to take on Rios's large contract

[Imran Siddiqui]

Rios's contract is $60 mil guaranteed through 2014.

Rios, 28, was signed to a seven-year extension worth nearly $70 million in April of last season. The right fielder -- likely to patrol center field for the White Sox -- is still owed roughly $2 million this season and is scheduled to make $9.7 million in 2010. Over the 2011-14 campaigns, Rios' salary jumps to between $12 million to $12.5 million annually.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090810&content_id=6354958&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

[Imran Siddiqui]

Kenny Williams has an amazing ability to fleece other GMs with relatively low risk to his team. Even when his moves don't turn out to be great ones, they typically have very little downside. Both of his moves this season were low risk, high reward; and for that matter, the worst thing he's done lately was the Nick Swisher trades, neither of which were really all that bad (despite his hot start for NY, he cooled back down to normal suckiness).

Normal suckiness? In 2006, Swisher had an OPS+ of 125. In 2007 it was 127. So far in 2009, his OPS+ is 122. The guy is a DAMNED good player. Consistently hitting 20% above the average player aside from his one year in Chicago.

[Arrian]

Plus, he's a roughly average defender in RF (if you trust UZR) and has been a plus defender there in the past. Though I must say he's not very graceful!

Rios is owed a lot of money, but he's nowhere near the mistake that Vernon Wells is... assuming he can still play a good CF and doesn't fall off a cliff like Wells has (as opposed to simply having a down year this year).

-Arrian

[Ben Kenobi]

Vernon Wells is trash. I can't count the times when they've had a man on base, needing a run or so to tie and Vernon Wells just fans on it. You want your cleanup hitter to clean up.

[snoopy369]

Rios's contract is $60 mil guaranteed through 2014.

Rios, 28, was signed to a seven-year extension worth nearly $70 million in April of last season. The right fielder -- likely to patrol center field for the White Sox -- is still owed roughly $2 million this season and is scheduled to make $9.7 million in 2010. Over the 2011-14 campaigns, Rios' salary jumps to between $12 million to $12.5 million annually.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...=.jsp&c_id=mlb

That's a fine contract for his normal performance level, which I have no reason to believe he won't return to. The Sox certainly were expecting $12m/yr or so for an outfielder next year, if not two. I'd rather have Rios than Dye if it comes to that.

On Swish - yes, he's at 122 now, but take his first month or so out; then where is he? And, while he walks a lot and that's swell, he doesn't bat in a position where that's altogether helpful. Pujols' OPS+ might go up if he walked every at bat, but I highly doubt Tony LaRussa would appreciate that. If he had enough speed to bat at the top of the order, that might be different, but he's expected to hit for power and hit runners in.

[-Jrabbit]

So if the deals net out at Swisher for Rios (plus Betamit ), I'm totally down with it.

Kenny Williams is a PLAYAH. He has missed at times, sure. But over his 9 years, I am extremely satisfied with his body of work. I love the fact that he doesn't often tip his hand, and he always seems to be working on something. (Turns out he was working on a Rios deal at the trade deadline.)

Activist GMs

[Imran Siddiqui]

That's a fine contract for his normal performance level, which I have no reason to believe he won't return to. The Sox certainly were expecting $12m/yr or so for an outfielder next year, if not two. I'd rather have Rios than Dye if it comes to that.

On Swish - yes, he's at 122 now, but take his first month or so out; then where is he? And, while he walks a lot and that's swell, he doesn't bat in a position where that's altogether helpful. Pujols' OPS+ might go up if he walked every at bat, but I highly doubt Tony LaRussa would appreciate that. If he had enough speed to bat at the top of the order, that might be different, but he's expected to hit for power and hit runners in.

These two in a row is actually funny as Hell. You realize that Rios' best season was an OPS+ of 122, right (and then slowly went down the two seasons afterwards)?

As for Swisher's first month being taken out... he's still really good? He slid in May, but had an OPS+ of 140 in June, 108 in July (not a great month, but above average), and 136 so far in August:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=swishni01&year=2009&t=b

As for "he walks a lot and that's swell" . Obviously you don't realize that OBP is the stat most closely correlated with scoring runs. And scoring runs is kinda the aim of the game. Talking walks in any position in the lineup is helpful.

Oh, btw, Swisher has 70 BBs this year. Pujols... 84 (granted, Pujols has ~70 more PA's).

I believe Baseball Prospectus showed that in Barry Bonds' best years, that the Giants would score far more runs if Bonds was walked every at bat than if he hit as he did. There is something about being on base all the freaking time that tends to result in your team scoring runs.

[Fve Crathva]

On the other hand, the Blue Jays under John Gibbons had one of the highest walk totals in the league, and one of the lowest run totals. You can't walk in runs.

SP

[Imran Siddiqui]

They only really had bad luck in 2007 (and hardly "one of the highest walk totals" unless that's an expansive definition). The rest of his tenure was very closely linked.

In 2005:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2005.shtml

Toronto was 6th in the AL in walks, and 5th in the AL in Runs Scored per game.

In 2006:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2006.shtml

Toronto was 5th in the AL in walks, and 7th in the AL in Runs Scored per Game

In 2007:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2007.shtml

Toronto was 6th in the AL in walks, and 10th in the AL in Runs Scored per Game

In 2008 (when Gibbons was fired in the mid of the year:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2008.shtml

11th in the AL in walks and 11th in Runs Scored per Game.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Damn DP!