Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[pchang]

I tthink the real history lesson here is that an American must have stolen Mobius’ girlfriend and poisoned his dog in the distant past.

[MOBIUS]

This... doesn't exactly make the point you want to push.

NATO didn't expand in Eastern Europe because it invaded all those countries. It expanded because all those countries knew Russia would want them under their heel sooner or later... And they didn't exactly enjoy the last time they were.

NATO promised Gorbachev that it wouldn't expand further east after the reunification of Germany, but it broke that promise.

Technically after the collapse of the Soviet Union it had no further need to exist as it had accomplished its mission. And yet for some reason it decided not only to keep existing, but to expand right up to Russia's doorstep...

So then what you're saying to Russia is that we're still against you and we're going to keep expanding against you because you are the enemy. You know that Putin actually wanted to join NATO but was rebuffed, right?

So I guess if everyone is saying you're a bully and ganging up on you, you're pretty much going to develop a persecution complex. You're certainly going to think that everyone is unfriendly and actively trying to make you weaker.

Everyone knows the type of person Putin is. He set a red line and the West crossed it anyway, knowing full well the likely consequences - which is the war we see now.

What would have been the alternative? Not appeasement and certainly not an entire nation being ruined for some chicken hawk dick waving...

There's been two Western backed revolutions in Ukraine that have overthrown democratically elected governments that were not committed to joining NATO, then suddenly they were. Perhaps if the Ukrainians were allowed to get on with their own self determination in peace and quiet, none of this **** would be happening...?

I don't remember Russia being overtly hostile towards Ukraine until the 2014 revolution and when all that **** kicked off, where Russia sought to defend its strategic assets in Crimea as a result.

Incidentally, Crimea is historically a part of Russia and not Ukraine.

Take a leaf out of Geronimo's book and open your minds a bit. Don't simply assume I'm wrong, but do your own research. Start by learning a bit of history on the subject.

People like John Mearsheimer are a good start, or even George Kennan back in the day. These guys aren't Putin apologists and neither am I, but they are realists.

For people on a CIV forum, one could be forgiven for wondering if any of you have played the game at all...?

[BeBMan]

NATO promised Gorbachev that it wouldn't expand further east after the reunification of Germany, but it broke that promise.

Feel free to provide the text of the mutually agreed treaty.

Technically after the collapse of the Soviet Union it had no further need to exist as it had accomplished its mission. And yet for some reason it decided not only to keep existing, but to expand right up to Russia's doorstep...

Obviously there's still a very good reason to exist for NATO, as events in Ukraine show.

You know that Putin actually wanted to join NATO but was rebuffed, right?

Yes, and it's a good thing, since Russia is not ready to be in an alliance with other democratic states, and has not been at any point with Putin in power.

So I guess if everyone is saying you're a bully and ganging up on you, you're pretty much going to develop a persecution complex. You're certainly going to think that everyone is unfriendly and actively trying to make you weaker.

Everyone knows the type of person Putin is. He set a red line and the West crossed it anyway, knowing full well the likely consequences - which is the war we see now.

What red lines did Russia cross that Nappy was forced to invade back then?

What would have been the alternative? Not appeasement and certainly not an entire nation being ruined for some chicken hawk dick waving...

If there's a great alternative Russia did not follow it vs. Nappy. Ergo, Russia is responsible for everything Nappy.

There's been two Western backed revolutions in Ukraine that have overthrown democratically elected governments that were not committed to joining NATO, then suddenly they were. Perhaps if the Ukrainians were allowed to get on with their own self determination in peace and quiet, none of this **** would be happening...?

If Russia is serious about Ukraininan self determination it surely would not have any prob with Ukraine choosing its own path, be it in or outside NATO/whatever. Thing is that Russia only accepts self-determination when it can set the limits of it, which means in the end no self determination at all.

I don't remember Russia being overtly hostile towards Ukraine until the 2014 revolution and when all that **** kicked off, where Russia sought to defend its strategic assets in Crimea as a result.

Funny. I don't remeber Nappy being hostile to Russia until someone in Russia had the temerity to be against him (probably set a red line against being against him).

Incidentally, Crimea is historically a part of Russia and not Ukraine.

Esp. if you cherry-pick the point in history which supports this, and ignore the rest. Alaska never forget!

People like John Mearsheimer are a good start, or even George Kennan back in the day. These guys aren't Putin apologists and neither am I, but they are realists.

For people on a CIV forum, one could be forgiven for wondering if any of you have played the game at all...?

Civ had ideology and religion, which is rather irrelevant if you ask (neo)realists.

[N35t0r]

So then what you're saying to Russia is that we're still against you and we're going to keep expanding against you because you are the enemy. You know that Putin actually wanted to join NATO but was rebuffed, right?

Putin was told he was free to join if he followed the standard process. He expected to be treated like a princess, and when he wasn't he stormed off in a huff.

I don't remember Russia being overtly hostile towards Ukraine until the 2014 revolution and when all that **** kicked off, where Russia sought to defend its strategic assets in Crimea as a result.

Well, you could start with Viktor Yushenko, who ran on a pro-West platform and was poisoned (but survived) during the election campaign.
Although I guess you could classify that as being covertly hostile.

[Bereta_Eder]

about NATO promising not to expand east ward it's so funny what actually happened


there was a so called verbal ok to the russian demands by a low level american diplomat (under bush). when the american administration read the minutes of the meeting, the highest echelons of their power (may ne nush himself) said screw that, we will give money whatever guarantess russia wants but not a limit to NATO that has worked so well in keeping peace in europe/US for so many decades

( I DONT AGREE WITH ALL THAT BUT THAT WAS WHAT HAPPENED AND SAID)

so in future agreements and meetings there never was even an allusion that the US has promised to russia that there wouldnt be an eastward expansion


that is russian propaganda that is based ona grain of (irrelevent and somewhjat common in international meetings) instant misunderstanding

also ask the average baltic person what he wants, he wants to be a bot more safe vis a vis the russian bear

also

coming down to what I said before

Ukraine deserves to be free and european.....

free means free....



maybe i'm nore of the french ideological school that says that ideals are worth defending above all else


and mobius is more of the british pragmatic approach.


sill ukraine had a chance to be peaceful and udner putin's boot.


who would want that....

[N35t0r]

Do you think Turkey and Greece wouldn't have been at war several times if neither was in NATO?

[Bereta_Eder]

Also I think that at this point it's about china 100%.

[Bereta_Eder]

Do you think Turkey and Greece wouldn't have been at war several times if neither was in NATO?

I think that probably yes there would have been numerous greco turkish wars because there are not enough mature polititians in either side to prevent it.


Since both ARE in NATO though, this is the canary in the mines,


future NATO destruction will not happen with russia invading the baltics or poland but with a full blow greek turkish clash

Obviosuly I do not wish it

[Geronimo]

International law experts. How does article 5 work if Greece and NATO go to war and both claim that the other is the aggressor?

[BlackCat]

International law experts. How does article 5 work if Greece and NATO go to war and both claim that the other is the aggressor?

Question doesn't make sense - NATO doesn't go to war on claims, there must be an attack on a member from a foe not a NATO member that are serious, ships sunk, flights shot down, military units killed etc. IIRC if both parties are member of NATO, then NATO uses only political weight.

[N35t0r]

Also the attack would need to happen in Europe, North America, Turkey, the Mediterranean Sea, or the North Atlantic (above the tropic of cancer).

It's why Argentina's invasion of the Falklands didn't trigger it.

[Dauphin]

So a fresh attack on Pearl Harbor won't trigger Article 5 then?

[giblets]

Good thing Manhattan is north of the tropic of cancer

[MOBIUS]

You all don't see the stupidity of your arguments:

All of you would rather see a country in ruins for generations to come that is forced to declare neutrality - than a country choosing neutrality...

All just wishful thinking, lacking in any pragmatism or realistic understanding of the world.

But hey, to the last Ukrainian and all that...

[MOBIUS]

You all don't see the stupidity of your arguments:

All of you would rather see a country in ruins for generations to come that is forced to declare neutrality - than a country choosing neutrality...

All just wishful thinking, lacking in any pragmatism or realistic understanding of the world.

But hey, to the last Ukrainian and all that...

[Was gonna say DP, but I've decided to keep it for emphasis]

The Comedian was cynically misled

[BeBMan]

I don't think neutrality is going to stop Putin from ruining Russia.