Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Serb]

A Hollywood clowns!

[Serb]

So, tell me. a Hollywood clown, how do you plan to "strategically defeat" Russia, if you haven't won a single war during the last century?

(With the exception of WW2, where your allies - Russians have destroyed over 600 German divisions or 3/4 of your Nazi enemy (who had declared war on you, not visa versa)

You are good only for movies, not for a real war.​

[BlackCat]

Interesting

[Geronimo]

I generally respect Anders Puck Niesen's views on the Ukraine war but here he seems to suggest that time is on Ukraine's side and that Russian defeat is probably inevitable and I completely disagree. I think there are far more scenarios where Russia totally defeats Ukraine and gets away with it than there are where Ukraine emerges without crippling concessions on territory and sovereignty let alone with no concessions at all. Ukrainian victory of any kind remains unlikely.

[Dinner]

Ukraine's best bet is that Russia runs out of cash and inflation makes living standards collapse inside Russia. This why Ukraine attacks oil facilities to try to bring that about

[Geronimo]

Ukraine's best bet is that Russia runs out of cash and inflation makes love standards collapse inside Russia. This why Ukraine attacks oil facilities to try to bring that about

last I heard the Biden administration was trying to twist Ukraine's arm to make those attacks stop with the moronic idea that the attacks would promote inflation in the US.

[Dinner]

last I heard the Biden administration was trying to twist Ukraine's arm to make those attacks stop with the moronic idea that the attacks would promote inflation in the US.

The Biden campaign did try to make Ukraine stop. Then it got bad press and NATO members told the Biden admin it was completely wrong, that Ukraine has to be allowed to win, and then countries like France and UK gave public permission to use their weapons on targets inside Russia. A week or so later the Biden admin flip flopped again and gave Ukraine permission to use US weapons on targets inside Russia.

Fair is fair as Russia attacks inside Ukraine so it should have to face Ukraine doing the same back to Russia. All of this happened a month or so ago back when Russia launched its now failed offensive towards Kharkiv.

[Dinner]

Looking stuff up back in May 30th the Biden admin give limited permission to strike assets inside Russia near Kharkiv. France and UK didn't limit use of their weapons nearly so much.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/30/biden-ukraine-weapons-strike-russia-00160731%23:~:text%3DThe%2520Biden%2520administrat ion%2520has%2520quietly,defend%2520its%2520second% 252Dlargest%2520city.&ved=2ahUKEwiZ3fLdkY6HAxWawK0 AHfKAARQQFnoECBAQBQ&usg=AOvVaw0T6qfW7dUheQ36kYBYbK Ha

In the month since there are claims the US expanded the list of ok targets to include a wider area as well as a wider target list Logistics hubs, oil and gas facilities, military industrial plants, etc... BTW the strikes on oil refineries have been particularly successful as Russia is now a net importer of refined oil products.

[Dinner]

About a month ago Russia stopped reporting its weekly production of refined oil products. Official states even three months ago showed a 45% drop in output and those numbers were probably doctored by the Kremlin to make the situation look better than it actually is.

https://youtu.be/Jt6FRyRJ8Zg?si=NgBqzaxrOvmioipg

Now, what happens when there are shortages of gasoline and diesel? Or the prices rise causing large amounts of inflation? Will dirt poor farmers have enough diesel to harvest their crops? Will there be diesel for trucks to transport those crops to factories and markets? What about fuel costs for everyday Russians? Yes, Putin subsidized gas and diesel prices for people in Russia but that costs a lot of money and money reserves are drying up. It is extremely expensive to import fuel at market rate only to sell it at a subsidized rate. The money crunch is coming as all the cash Putin saved up to cushion the Russian economy is almost gone, he can't borrow on international financial markets due to sanctions, so he has two choices. 1) Raise taxes (which he has already done probably as much as he can without crushing regular people) or 2) Money printer goes burr which will result in mass inflation. Not good options.

[Dinner]

About the UK allowing its weapons to be used inside Russia.

https://youtu.be/TIfWR7Q30bs?si=Ao-moM6E0ImeEtBK

France and Germany did the same a month ago.

https://youtu.be/chCRsTj_XEs?si=Dvv9SAzLam1sOb49

[Geronimo]

Interesting

As much as I respect Anders Puck Nielsen's expertise on the Ukraine war he has now made so many predictions and analysis part of his public reputation and literally staked his career on their veracity and success. If it turns out that his reasonable, informed, well thought out predictions on this vast, extremely opaque and grotesquely complicated start to look inaccurate I suspect he will increasingly succumb to temptation to filter his future analysis, both consciously and unconsciously, to protect and defend that verbal investment along with his reputation.

I've been seeing more and more recent analysis along the lines of the link below which contradict the broad predictive narratives and analysis of Anders that time is on Ukraine's side or that Russian victory is not in the cards.

[BlackCat]

I've been seeing more and more recent analysis along the lines of the link below which contradict the broad predictive narratives and analysis of Anders that time is on Ukraine's side or that Russian victory is not in the cards.

After reading that stuff, I think the guy has demoted himself to armchair general, and I guess that the same goes for similar analysis. It's quite horrible that he back in 22 suggests that the Ukrainians should collect their tanks, armoured transports etc. and make a counterattack somewhere. Then there are the comments of russias access to lots of raw materials, which is quite true and is pretty good if you have to build wast amounts of T-34 but is quite uninteresting if you have to build a modern tank. About that, yes, the russians are building new modern tanks, some 40-60 a year - that is what Ukraine destroys on a sloppy week.

Here is a more recent and reliable evaluation of the situation

[Serb]

Ukraine's best bet is that Russia runs out of cash and inflation makes living standards collapse inside Russia. This why Ukraine attacks oil facilities to try to bring that about

That was your initial blitzkrieg plan and it 's failed.

Now you suck your own balls hard, because your snactions cripples your financial babble economies with ease, while our real economy of industry and resources is growing at a rate you Western suckers can only dream of.​

[Serb]

The Biden campaign did try to make Ukraine stop. Then it got bad press and NATO members told the Biden admin it was completely wrong, that Ukraine has to be allowed to win, and then countries like France and UK gave public permission to use their weapons on targets inside Russia. A week or so later the Biden admin flip flopped again and gave Ukraine permission to use US weapons on targets inside Russia.

Fair is fair as Russia attacks inside Ukraine so it should have to face Ukraine doing the same back to Russia. All of this happened a month or so ago back when Russia launched its now failed offensive towards Kharkiv.

You do realize that no Western missile can be fired without a flight plan, entered by WESTERN specialists, based of WESTERN sattelite and Western drone data?

That such attacks make you a 300% side of the conflict, despite all your whining that you don't fight with Russia?

The single fact that you are sending weapons in a war zone is a casus belli in accordance with the international law.

So, when our patience will be finally over, don't be so surprised your cities start to fire and ALL OF YOU WILL DIE!!!​

[Serb]

The Russia alone has more warheads than your entire NATO and the carriers of those warheads is one generation ahead of yours.

So, stop playing with a nuclear fire, for your own good, idiots!