Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Thoth]

One has to wonder what understanding Putin had of the real state of his military before he invaded. Hopefully the "no limits" partnership with China will include sharing Russian corruption techniques.

Perun has a couple of excellent videos on corruption and the culture of lying in the Russian military. Well wroth the listen IMO.

https://youtu.be/i9i47sgi-V4

https://youtu.be/Fz59GWeTIik

TLDW: In between a culture of corruption, vranyo, and the inherent tendency of authoritarian power structures to become disinformation networks as superiors get told what the subordinate thinks they want to hear, I think it is safe to say that Putin had no clue just how bad things were with the Russian military or how strong an opposition they were likely to face in Ukraine.

[BlackCat]

Meh, as far as I have figured out, then all the leaked material is a bit old and obsolete, so considering the war, it has no influence. The real headache is that someone in the US system apparently have had access to something and sent it out on some minecraft site - maybe US should strengthen their security a bit

[PLATO]

Maybe the janitor from Mar-a-lago gave them to him????

[Dauphin]

My defense would be Trump (or sitting President) told me (s)he'd think about declassifying the records, hence I thought that meant they were declassified.

[PLATO]

So who is responsible to watch the people who have access to secrets like this?

[ZEE]

And here I thought I used to be an arrogant person...

But posting government secrets on Discord and not expecting them to get out? Wow!

[Dauphin]

How or why they got to see unencrypted data, is another question. But access itself seems plausible.

[Dauphin]

I read somewhere that they are 'cyber transit' specialists, responsible for keeping the force’s communication network running.

https://www.102iw.ang.af.mil/

[pchang]

Can anyone explain to me why an Air National Guardsman in Massachusetts has a need to know about operational things in Ukraine?

[PLATO]

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/04/13/from-only-professionals-to-closing-the-borders-for-draft-evaders

Putin is a flip-flopper.

So Putin is a liar. Shock! Surprise! Someone should tell Berz (but gently...he is soooo bought in on the murdering megalomaniac)

[BeBMan]

From ‘only professionals’ to closing the borders for draft evaders
A timeline of Russia’s official statements on who it’s sending to war

March 5, 2022

Russian President Vladimir Putin says that “only professionals — officers and contract soldiers — are taking part” in the “military operation” in Ukraine. He assures Russians that “not even a single conscript” is involved in the war and says the Russian authorities have no intention of deploying any. Putin thanks citizens who have reported to enlistment offices to volunteer, but he says “their help is currently not needed.” “And I’m confident we’re not going to need it,” he adds.

March 8, 2022

In his International Women’s Day address, Putin reiterates that mandatory service conscripts “are not participating in combat and are not going to.” He also vows that Russia will not draft soldiers from the reserves.

March 9, 2022

The Russian Defense Ministry acknowledges that there are conscripts fighting in the war. “Unfortunately, several instances of conscripts serving in units of the Russian Armed Forces and participating in the conduct of the special military operation on the territory of Ukraine have been discovered,” reads the ministry’s statement. Ministry spokesman Lieutenant General Igor Konashenkov says that several conscripts have been taken captive.

September 13, 2022

Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says that there will be no mobilization in Russia. “At the moment, no, this is not on the table,” he tells reporters. The previous day, Peskov declined to answer a question about mobilization and advised journalists to speak to the Defense Ministry. The ministry declined to comment.

September 21, 2022

Putin declares mobilization. He says the measure is necessary because Russia is now facing “the entire military machine of the collective West,” which seeks to “weaken, divide, and ultimately destroy our country.” At the same time, he maintains that the campaign is only a “partial mobilization.” Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu says that 300,000 people will be called up, but the section of Putin’s official mobilization order that presumably contains the number of soldiers to be drafted is classified.

Putin assures Russians that the draft will primarily affect people who have undergone mandatory military service, who have a “military occupation specialty,” and who have relevant experience. In reality, the army called up numerous people who had no military experience at all, and many of them were sent to the battlefield without any training.

October 31, 2022

The Russian Defense Ministry declares that mobilization is complete. Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov says that no more draft orders will be served and that enlistment offices are returning to normal operations. At the same time, Putin does not issue a decree ending mobilization. His spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, will later say that the president has “consulted with lawyers” and determined that such a decree is legally unnecessary.

April 11, 2023

The Russian State Duma rushes through a set of amendments that make it significantly more difficult to evade military service. The legislation lays the groundwork for the creation of a digital registry of draft-eligible citizens and eliminates the requirement that a military summons be served in person, making it legal to issue draft orders online or by registered mail instead. It also deprives draft dodgers of numerous rights, making it illegal for them to leave the country, drive a car, buy property, and take out loans.

Dmitry Peskov says the changes are a necessary part of “refining the military registration system.” When asked whether the authorities will use electronic summonses if a second wave of mobilization is declared, he responds: “There will be no second wave.”

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/04/13/from-only-professionals-to-closing-the-borders-for-draft-evaders

Putin is a flip-flopper.

[-Jrabbit]

That was my thought.

[Berzerker]

I can't decide about the leaks either? Could it be disinformation? Is there anything that we know can't be disinformation and would harm Ukraine's allies?

a 3rd option, lying works to sell weapons so why not the truth? Winning or losing, Ukraine still needs weapons. From what I've heard the west doesn't have enough bombs and Ukraine doesn't have enough cannon fodder. There was nothing in the leak that will change Russia's plans other than possibly signaling the USA is closer to throwing in the towel. Glenn Greenwald thought it might be the Biden WH leaking it for several reasons, one being whistle blowers and the state dont typically leak the same way these days.

[Dinner]

The guy barely leaves his bunker and won't let anyone with in 30 meters of him because he is deathly afraid of COVID as well as being assassinated. So, no, he probably had no idea just how terrible his army was even though he is a big cause of the corruption and incompetence. The video covers this topic because Putin feared getting overthrown by a military coup so he made sure he replaced every high ranking officer with cronies who were corrupt and not very good at their basic jobs. Not to mention people didn't get promoted based upon merit or skill so you got a bunch of loyal but incompetent half wits who could afford to pay bribes for promotions because they literally stole everything not nailed down.

[PLATO]

One has to wonder what understanding Putin had of the real state of his military before he invaded. Hopefully the "no limits" partnership with China will include sharing Russian corruption techniques.