Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[EPW]

How did Hunter Biden manage to pull this one off?

[The Mad Monk]

Russia investigates Wagner chief for ‘armed mutiny’ after call for attack on military

FSB opens criminal case after Yevgeny Prigozhin accuses Russia’s military of rocket attack and says ‘evil’ leadership must be stopped

Russia-Ukraine war: latest developments

Pjotr Sauer
Fri 23 Jun 2023 15.32 EDT
Last modified on Fri 23 Jun 2023 21.31 EDT

Russia’s FSB security service has opened a criminal case for armed mutiny against Wagner’s Yevgeny Prigozhin after the mercenary chief accused the Russian military of targeting his forces and vowed to “destroy” his rivals.

In an extraordinary series of audio clips released late on Friday, Prigozhin claimed that a Russian rocket attack had killed scores of his fighters, vowing to take “revenge” and “stop the evil brought by the military leadership of the country”.

“Those who destroyed today our guys, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished. I’m asking: no one resist,” Prigozhin said.

Prigozhin also published a video, which he claims shows the aftermath of the rocket attack on a Wagner camp in Russia’s southern Rostov region.

In a virtual declaration of war against his rivals in the Russian military, Prigozhin said he controlled 25,000 fighters and that together “we are going to figure out why the chaos is happening in the country”.

“Anyone who wants should join. We need to end this mess,” he said.

“Everyone who will try to resist, we will consider them a danger and destroy them immediately, including any checkpoints on our way. And any aviation that we see above our heads,” he added.

“I’m asking everyone to remain calm, do not succumb to provocations, and remain in their houses. Ideally, those along our way, do not go outside. After we finished what we started, we will return to the frontline to protect our motherland,” Prigozhin said.

The FSB said that Prigozhin’s statements and actions constituted “calls for the start of an armed civil conflict on the territory of the Russian Federation”.

Russian state news agency Tass, citing law enforcement agencies, reported that security measures have been strengthened in Moscow, with critical facilities taken under increased protection. Unconfirmed footage also appeared to show military vehicles on the streets of the Russian capital.

Amid rumours that columns of Wagner fighters were already on the move, General Sergei Surovikin, the deputy commander of Russia’s Ukraine campaign, released a video address ordering the mercenaries to remain loyal to Putin.

“I urge you to stop,” said Surovikin, who was previously understood to be close to Prigozhin. “The enemy is just waiting for the internal political situation to worsen in our country.”

Early on Saturday, State-run Channel 1 broke into regular programming for a special news bulletin in which the country’s best-known news anchor, Yekaterina Andreyeva, denied Prigozhin’s claims of a Russian military attack against his fighters and repeated the FSB statement.
As Russia’s armed forces fight among themselves, it’s hard to know who’s in control

The string of statements marked an unprecedented escalation of infighting among Russia’s elite, which has pitted Prigozhin against defence minister Sergei Shoigu and senior military commanders.

The FSB urged Wagner fighters “not to make irreparable mistakes, to stop any forceful actions against the Russian people, not to carry out the criminal and treacherous orders of Prigozhin, and to take measures to detain him”.

In a separate statement, prosecutors said that Prigozhin could face between 12 and 20 years in prison.

Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said the Russian president was “aware of the situation unfolding around Prigozhin”.

“All necessary measures are being taken,” Russian state media quoted Peskov saying.

Early on Saturday, Prigozhin released another voice message in which he claimed without offering any evidence that his forces had left Ukraine and were entering the southern Russian city of Rostov.

“Right now we have crossed all the border points... The border guards greeted us and hugged our fighters. Now we are entering Rostov,” he said. “If anyone gets in our way, we will destroy everything... We extend our hand to everyone. We move forward, we are going all the way!”

According to several Telegram channels linked to security services, emergency protocols were earlier implemented the city, involving the full mobilisation of the local security services.

Pictures published by local media showed armour vehicles appearing on the streets of the city. Baza, a Telegram channel linked to Russian security services, reported that helicopters were seen flying over Rostov.

It was not immediately clear what Prigozhin’s objectives were and whether his threats were directed at the Kremlin.

“This is not a military coup, this is a march of justice. Our actions do not hinder the armed forces in any way,” the Wagner chief said, adding that the “majority of soldiers” were on his side.

The warlord has been arguing with top military officials for months, singling out Shoigu, over battlefield failures.

Earlier in the day, Prigozhin accused Moscow’s leadership of lying to the public about the justifications for invading Ukraine, denying Moscow’s claims that Kyiv was planning to launch an offensive on the Russian-controlled territories in eastern Ukraine in February 2022.

“The ministry of defence is trying to deceive the public and the president and spin the story that there was insane levels of aggression from the Ukrainian side and that they were going to attack us together with the whole Nato block,” the Wagner head said.

Prigozhin also said Russia’s leadership could have avoided the war by negotiating with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Prigozhin’s tirades on Friday marked a new escalation of his war of words with political rivals, directly contradicting Putin’s rationale for the invasion, and implying it was based on lies in the harshest criticism by any prominent Russian war figure of the decision to attack Ukraine.

“What was the war for? The war needed for Shoigu to receive a hero star … The oligarchic clan that rules Russia needed the war,” he said.

While the warlord was careful not to directly attack the Russian president, Prigozhin did question several decisions made by Putin, including the Kremlin’s decision to exchange more than 100 captured Azov fighters for Viktor Medvedchuk, a close ally of Putin.

Prigozhin also accused the Russian military leadership of lying to the public about the scale of its losses and setbacks in Ukraine.

“The Russian army is retreating in all directions and shedding a lot of blood … What they tell us is the deepest deception.”

Tatyana Stanovaya, the founder of the political analysis firm R Politik, said that after months of testing the boundaries of his power, Prigozhin appeared to have reached a limit.

“The termination of Prigozhin and Wagner is imminent. The only possibility now is absolute obliteration, with the degree of resistance from the Wagner group being the only variable,” she wrote on Telegram.

She added that while there was no immediate sign that Vladimir Putin’s hold on power was under threat, the dramatic episode will likely damage his standing.

“Many within the elite will now personally fault Putin for letting the situation escalate to such extremes and for his lack of a timely adequate response.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ust-be-stopped

[Geronimo]

I was responding to someone using the term 'shelling civilians'. I think they wanted civilians protesting their coup to die and yes, those are/were civilian areas. The civilians eventually became 'separatists' or mostly got out of the way. Mariupol was Azov's strong hold. How many civilians have been killed by Russia since the 2014 war? How many since Feb '22? Looks to me like Russia has been trying to avoid civilians and could have leveled Kiev in Mar '22 but backed away before the USA told Zelensky to violate his own treaty.

Why didn't the Russian military invade the Donbas before the separatists begged for help and were they attacked by the civilians when they did intervene? Actions do speak louder than propaganda, the people of the Donbas rejected our coup and when we sent a Nazi army to attack them they fought back with Russia's help.

What "treaty", especially one somehow belonging to himself, did Zelensky get told to "violate"?

The Russian military certainly did invade the Donbas. Over and over. The only difference in 2022 was that they expanded it to a vast campaign over all Ukraine and they tried to establish occupation forces directly reporting to Moscow.

The people of the Donbas decisively rejected the Donbas separation, the Separatists and their Russian backers. Every poll, private and public indicated the large majority wanted to remain part of Ukraine...until little green men started running the polls at gunpoint.

Remember, as well that large areas of the Donbas remained under Ukrainian control. Journalists from everything from BBC to al Jazeera would talk to these people. They weren't being attacked by Azov. They wanted the separatists to leave. They didn't want the Donbas to stop being part of Ukraine.

They want to be represented by Zelensky...not Putin.

[pchang]

Prigozhin: 62 years was a pretty good run.

[Berzerker]

You constantly assert they "shelled civillians" for 8 years. Wth does that even mean Berz? Does that mean they wanted the civilians to die? If so given how much better Russia has proven to be at shelling civilians in one year than Ukraine was in eight, it's still obvious sending more arms to the Ukrainian side is the right move if we don't like civilians to die.

But really, if your BS about "civilians shelled" for 8 years were anything close to true, the most heavily shelled areas wouldn't be airports, farms and rural villages. Instead Donetsk and Luhansk would look like Mariupol.

Actions speak louder than propaganda Berz.

I was responding to someone using the term 'shelling civilians'. I think they wanted civilians protesting their coup to die and yes, those are/were civilian areas. The civilians eventually became 'separatists' or mostly got out of the way. Mariupol was Azov's strong hold. How many civilians have been killed by Russia since the 2014 war? How many since Feb '22? Looks to me like Russia has been trying to avoid civilians and could have leveled Kiev in Mar '22 but backed away before the USA told Zelensky to violate his own treaty.

Why didn't the Russian military invade the Donbas before the separatists begged for help and were they attacked by the civilians when they did intervene? Actions do speak louder than propaganda, the people of the Donbas rejected our coup and when we sent a Nazi army to attack them they fought back with Russia's help.

[Berzerker]

The Donbas didn't attack Kiev

[PLATO]

You're probably right but the point of this somewhat elaborate misdirection would be that Putin wouldn't have to admit defeat just admit having been betrayed by an ambitious Shoigu.

Russia still occupies a large part of Ukraine. Putin could claim victory, offer to withdraw to Feb 24 boundaries, say "Mission Accomplished", arrest Shoigu, and dare the world to support Ukraine attacking beyond the Feb 24 boundary. Essentially re-freezing the conflict and Russia maintaining Crimea and the industrial heartland of the Donbas. Ukraine would then have some decisions to make as would its supporters.

My guess at this point is that Ukraine has had enough of Russian occupation and would continue the fight. That could depend on the West's attitude toward continuing the fight. Hard to tell....

[Geronimo]

I am even more confused about the we shelling civilians part.

JM

Nobody can blame you that. For reasons only Russian stooges would attempt to explain, they believe that Azov was controlled by the US government which directed Azov to "shell the civilians" in the Donbas because "the civilians in the Donbas", "opposed the coup". Supposedly the US government spent 8 years trying to kill civilians in the Donbas by using Azov to continually shell the civilians until January 2022 when the US government had Azov dramatically increase the shelling forcing Russia which had been very busy getting hundreds of thousands of troops and equipment all around Ukraine for an invasion to suddenly respond by invading just after they finished deploying everything.

So you see..."we" were shelling the civilians for 8 years

[Jon Miller]

You constantly assert they "shelled civillians" for 8 years. Wth does that even mean Berz? Does that mean they wanted the civilians to die? If so given how much better Russia has proven to be at shelling civilians in one year than Ukraine was in eight, it's still obvious sending more arms to the Ukrainian side is the right move if we don't like civilians to die.

But really, if your BS about "civilians shelled" for 8 years were anything close to true, the most heavily shelled areas wouldn't be airports, farms and rural villages. Instead Donetsk and Luhansk would look like Mariupol.

Actions speak louder than propaganda Berz.

I am even more confused about the we shelling civilians part.

JM

[Geronimo]

Doubtful. Putin is incapable of admitting defeat.

You're probably right but the point of this somewhat elaborate misdirection would be that Putin wouldn't have to admit defeat just admit having been betrayed by an ambitious Shoigu.

[-Jrabbit]

Doubtful. Putin is incapable of admitting defeat.

[pchang]

Interesting interview with prigozhin:

https://nitter.net/i/status/1672177488535977984

Along other comments (from machine translation):

• Ukraine has not bombed Donetsk for 8 years, but only the positions of the Russians. All these years Donbass has been plundered, including by employees of the Russian presidential administration.

Could this be the beginnings of an exit plan? "Throw Shoigu under the bus!"

[BlackCat]

At least, they don't smoke as much as average russian marines.

[BeBMan]

Russia making efforts to increase the average IQ of its naval forces in the Black Sea:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/23/russia-security-sevastopol-black-sea-base-spy-dolphins

[Broken_Erika]

Self-proclaimed Tsar Prigozhin reappeared
"Ukraine has not bombed Donetsk for 8 years, only Russian positions. The Armed Forces of Ukraine were not going to attack Russia with NATO soldiers, the Russian Ministry of Defense is deceiving the public and the president."

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672157866222923781?