Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Uncle Sparky]

It's about a 6 hour drive from Kursk to Moscow... unless they stop for a couple of meal breaks.

[Dinner]

WaPo on the new raid into Russia's Belgorod area.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/10/ukraine-belgorod-kursk-russia-occupied-war/

[Dinner]

Apparently the second mobile group that was sitting on the border has also now moved and is pushing in near Belgorod.

https://youtu.be/lSAkXsHd6BI?si=TjnY_rHOK6o0Wl0i

Assuming this video is correct that is.

[Geronimo]

Interesting question: is this strategically insane incursion into Russia Ukraine's Battle of the Bulge moment...?

One final desperate roll of the dice that ****s their last remaining reserves.

Looks like it to me 🙄

What's the cute face supposed to tell us? Anyway be careful what you say about this foggy situation. Even if Ukraine ends up withdrawing from all of Kursk this decision to invade Kursk could have done overwhelming damage if Russia made the mistake of piling tons of valuable targets just beyond HIMARS range.

Also Third Reich didn't fail in the West because of the Battle of the Bulge. They lost because the Axis couldn't hope to begin to match Allied economic and manpower advantages.

Tell us how the incursion is insane however.

[Dinner]

It actually makes a lot of sense as all the military experts in the West have been telling them they need to engage in mobile warfare using combined arms. That is literally what they have done. Also, looking on the map, they can actually straighten their defensive line and position themselves on the high ground behind rivers if they can successfully reach those areas. Plus the east has endless mine fields, trenches, and fortifications but inside Russia there are almost none of those things. That is what makes mobile warfare possible.

As for last reserves .. They literally have a second mobile army sitting Abbot to the east so that if Putin foolishly weakens the defenses there to counter the original forces then the second mobile group can push through near Belgorod. Russia's problem is most of its real army of contract soldiers are in Eastern Ukraine where as the north only has conscripts who legally can't be deployed in Ukraine. This creates a dilemma for Putin: Does he redeploy forces from Eastern Ukraine or does he through poorly trained and under equipped conscripts into Ukraine s best mobile forces? Public opinion is generally ok with volunteers dying in war but would get very upset when conscripts start dying in large numbers.

[BeBMan]

Nice little chitchat indeed. I found the bits about conscripts at the end interesting,

[Dinner]

This is quite interesting

I got beaten to the punch.

[Dinner]

If you are interested in a real explanation by an educated person about possible motivations for this offensive then this video is pretty good. He admits not everything is clear yet but what he does say makes a lot of sense and does account for the information we do have available.

https://youtu.be/A4mg1ZUb-7s?si=u6zPq8c9jPkq2jiO

[BlackCat]

This is quite interesting

[WigIaf]

"russia was knocked out of world war one by a revolution"

it didn't even "conquer" germany

the soviet union did and collapsed within one person's lifetime

ukraine never forgets (i hope)

[Geronimo]

Maybe to encourage the very kind of strategic blunder that Ukraine is committing...?

I think politically this will not play well in Russia regardless of how badly Ukraine wastes resources in this operation. I doubt Putin or senior Russian military leadership would accept any political embarrassment for any amount of material gain with respect to the Ukrainians in the special military operation. That says to me that whatever the reason Russia didn't extensively fortify the border, they probably didn't do so to encourage a Ukrainian invasion of Russia.

[N35t0r]

Maybe to encourage the very kind of strategic blunder that Ukraine is committing...?

Or overconfident that Ukraine would be leashed by fear of offending their western benefactors by striking at Russia.

[Dinner]

That they haven't built defensive works demonstrates a special kind of arrogance in Russian strategic planning.

I agree though I would point out that Russia did build much more extensive defensive works in eastern Ukraine. Far more than Ukraine itself has built. I suspect the Russians have concentrated their resources on eastern Ukraine and have let defensive lines in Russia itself go without. They probably thought they were safe and Ukraine would never dare go into Russia itself

The reports are kind of worse because supposedly these sections were held by Chechen fake tik Tok soldiers who spent most of their time acting as blocking units shooting Russia conscripts who dares to retreat. Those Chechens ran away the second they heard Ukrainians were coming. The rest were untrained and poorly equipped green conscripts who did try to defend but didn't know what they were doing and many of whom ended up surrendering in mass.

[The Mad Monk]

That they haven't built defensive works demonstrates a special kind of arrogance in Russian strategic planning.

[Geronimo]

Technically right, but in practice totally wrong. The Ukrainians hasn't met any unmanned trenches yet, if they had, they would have steamrolled it. The russians can't cover all the front of the Ukrainian/Russian without decimating their military currently active in Ukraine.

they'd man a well-prepared defensive line with raw green conscripts and even elite well-equipped Ukrainian attacks could be stopped. For that kind of defence manpower isn't as much of an issue. Part of Ukraine's recent woes relate to the far less extensive defence infrastructure that Ukraine was able to place in the way of Russia's counter offensive than what Russia was able to lay in front the the Ukrainian offensive. The over whelming majority of Ukrainian well prepared defences predate the special military operation.