Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[PLATO]

I think some ghastly Dr Stranglovian nuclear WMDs would go a long way to explain why Putin was so confident in attacking despite his conventional forces being so underwhelming vs NATO. If all he had was bluff I don't think he would have kept doubling down. I also don't think anyone should back down in the face of those ghastly Dr. Strangelovian WMDs.

I think Putin's ego and Putin's friend's corruption caused him to vastly over rate his conventional military. You think he would have learned a thing or two from Saddam's "mother of all battles" thinking. Clearly, western weapons and tactics are beyond a third rate spy's military evaluation capabilities.

WRT nuclear delivery systems...why would they be subject to less corruption than any other part of the military supply chain? Is Putin smart enough to ask himself that question?

[Egbert]

It seems pretty well everybody over rated Russian conventional capability. I can not recall anybody predicting a Russian defeat, until the Ukraine actually started pushing the Russians back.

[N35t0r]

It seems pretty well everybody over rated Russian conventional capability. I can not recall anybody predicting a Russian defeat, until the Ukraine actually started pushing the Russians back.

Starting with the Russians themselves, clearly.

[N35t0r]

I think some ghastly Dr Stranglovian nuclear WMDs would go a long way to explain why Putin was so confident in attacking despite his conventional forces being so underwhelming vs NATO. If all he had was bluff I don't think he would have kept doubling down. I also don't think anyone should back down in the face of those ghastly Dr. Strangelovian WMDs.

You don't need any ghastly Dr. Strangelovian WMDs for that, just regular WMDs and the belief that Russian forces are as good as your advisors say they are, Ukrainian forces are as useless as they were in 2014, and the west will just appease away under the threat of expensive energy once the deed is done.

[BeBMan]

Fun to read old stuff again:

MOSCOW, July 17 (Reuters) - The refusal of Ukraine and Western powers to recognise Moscow's control of Crimea poses a "systemic threat" for Russia and any outside attack on the region will prompt a "Judgment Day" response, former president Dmitry Medvedev said on Sunday.

(snipsnap)

His comments were aired a day after a Ukrainian official suggested that Crimea, which most of the world still recognises as part of Ukraine, could be a target for U.S.-made HIMARS missiles, recently deployed by Kyiv as it battles Russian forces.

Bolding by me.

That was a red line in July. After strikes vs air base earlier, bridge now it's more orange-yellow.

[PLATO]

It seems pretty well everybody over rated Russian conventional capability. I can not recall anybody predicting a Russian defeat, until the Ukraine actually started pushing the Russians back.

Totally agree. On paper, Russia's military looked extremely formidable. It is a glaring failure of intelligence not to have detected the impact of widespread systemic corruption in the procurement system and the effects of inadequate training of personnel. One can only hope that the West actually knew this, but was not publicizing it. Things like offering Zelenskyy a ride out of town at the start of all this leads me to believe it was an intelligence failure.

[PLATO]

Fun to read old stuff again:



Bolding by me.

That was a red line in July. After strikes vs air base earlier, bridge now it's more orange-yellow.

Medvedev is quickly becoming the "Baghdad Bob" of this conflict.

[N35t0r]

The Ukrainian army also showed an amazing improvement from 2014 to now, and not all of it was that evident (for many reasons I guess) in the ongoing conflict with the Donbass separatists.

[The Mad Monk]

It's coming, Serb. They're just letting Crimea marinate for a bit longer...

[Uncle Sparky]

Did you know that 2 out of 5 Putin supporters are just as dumb as the other 3?

[Proteus_MST]

It's coming, Serb. They're just letting Crimea marinate for a bit longer...

What do you call a surrendering russian soldier?

"A smart Russian"

and/or alternatively:

"A Russian who will stay alive"

[PLATO]

Another "Emergency" meeting from Russia's military council coming up. This should be interesting. Does Putin dare full mobilization?

[BeBMan]

Dunno about that new one. But they seem to have a lot of emergencies these days...

Meanwhile, he (edit. Putin) declared martial law in annexed regions of Ukraine:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...herson-ukraine

People there must feel totally liberated now.

[Geronimo]

Another "Emergency" meeting from Russia's military council coming up. This should be interesting. Does Putin dare full mobilization?

What would change? Putin already has defacto full mobilization but with some trappings of "partial" mobilization for cheap political cover. Likely the current system will be used to mobilize 2+ million. The constraints will be equipment, logistics, and whatever passes their low training bar.

[pchang]

It appears that new troops are being deployed and are immediately killed because they have no idea what they are doing.

[BlackCat]

Interesting chat (but long) between Anders and some Jake Broe - he could be interesting. Think Serb will inhale some 3-4 liters of vodka and start ranting - especially in the nuke sections.