Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Geronimo]

I agree with #1.I would add:
4.) Push Russia back to the lines as they were on February 23, 2022. 90%

I think this is the most likely unless Russia uses nukes or Ukraine makes an enormous strategic blunder that Russia actually manages to exploit.

[Ming]

The solution may be for the counter offensive to get close to Crimea and let Russia keep it as part of a peace deal.
Allowing Russia to save a tad bit of face...

[N35t0r]

That might be a hard sell in Ukraine. Also, **** Russia, and **** letting them save any bit of face.

[PLATO]

The solution may be for the counter offensive to get close to Crimea and let Russia keep it as part of a peace deal.
Allowing Russia to save a tad bit of face...

I guess it could come to that, but I think that is more and more unlikely. The war crimes have truly pissed the Ukrainian people off. Whenever I think of things like this, I try to put it into perspective from my country. Would we be willing to trade territory for peace? I don't think so. I think the Ukrainians are at the point that they don't think so either.

[Geronimo]

Will the Russians see Ukrainian control of territory as Russia trading territory for peace? I certainly hope not.

[Uncle Sparky]

It should be reasonably easy for Ukraine to retake Azov and Rostov-na-Danu... maybe Russia would trade them for Crimea and Putin's head on a spike?

[N35t0r]

I don't think it will be easier to capture Rostov than Crimea, and not only because the former is unquestionably Russian.

[Egbert]

If the Ukraine meets with too much military success we may reach the point where the "West" needs to compel the Ukraine to make peace.

A disintegration of the Russian Federation is a prospect too unpalatable to contemplate for a host of reasons starting with the potential loss of control of nuclear weapons and possible Chinese invasion of bits of Siberia. What then?

[Geronimo]

If the Ukraine meets with too much military success we may reach the point where the "West" needs to compel the Ukraine to make peace.

A disintegration of the Russian Federation is a prospect too unpalatable to contemplate for a host of reasons starting with the potential loss of control of nuclear weapons and possible Chinese invasion of bits of Siberia. What then?

Where is Putin coming up with his hysterical hyperbole about a "disintegration" of Russia anyway? How could any combination of events in Ukraine trigger a Russian disintegration?

[Jon Miller]

Catastrophic defeats, even in foreign countries, are known to cause the disintegration of authoritarian regimes.

JM

[Dauphin]

I don't think it will be easier to capture Rostov than Crimea, and not only because the former is unquestionably Russian.

Voronezh and Rostov are not recognised as Russian, at least according the very well-informed British Prime MInister/Former Foreign Secretary.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-cites-truss-error-evidence-west-doesnt-understand-ukraine-conflict-2022-02-11/

[N35t0r]

Voronezh and Rostov are not recognised as Russian, at least according the very well-informed British Prime MInister/Former Foreign Secretary.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ct-2022-02-11/

[Uncle Sparky]

There is more than one Rostov. The one on the Don River could be arguably part of Ukraine. So could Azov.
And I'm 100% sure that if the Ukrainian's held a free and fair (Kremlin like) referendum to have those areas freely join Ukraine, 98% of the citizens would freely vote to join Ukraine.

[BeBMan]

I'm sure those Russian referendumses will come in the form of fully democratic polls, esp. in areas Russia only controls partially. Maybe those from the Ukrainian side could vote by mail. This would also allow Putin to claim the results were stolen, so win-win.

[PLATO]

I read that soldiers were going door to door to hand out and collect ballots in order to "maintain the security of the vote".