Tweet
Orban seems to be Putin’s ace in the hole.
-
“It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”
― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of Man -
putin has no hole.Comment
-
The comment feature just doesn't have enough functionality.
Putin surely believes it would work with Trump or Biden. Probably hoped Trump would see nothing in it for the US to answer article 5 and probably believes Biden, Macron and Johnson would cave to any demands rather than answer a strategic missile attack.
For Biden it is incredibly important that he not appear to fear war with Russia more than he fears anything else or, ironically, his apparent rejection of any possible risk of open warfare could unintentionally invite such an attack.
In the unfortunate circumstance that trump had remained president the important thing would have been to demonstrate support for allies as well as continuing to appear to be a completely bat**** loose cannon. Something which seemed to come naturally to him.Comment
-
Gotta love wild speculations, so here's mine: No president can afford to let Putin establish himself as European hegemon since it would essentially mean to abandon US superpower status, and not only in a symbolic way, it would also mean to be degraded to a far less influential country, with others calling the shots in many parts of the world.BlahComment
-
lol, even if Putin somehow managed to conquer Ukraine, the Baltics, and whatever else, Russia will only get worse in the medium term. They have a serious demographic problem, a ton of corruption, and a lot of the wealth they generate gets siphoned off by the oligarchy. Most of their economy is dedicated to extractive industries, including oil and gas, which has an uncertain future.Indifference is BlissComment
-
All true. But Putin would see them faced with the choice of capitulation or nuclear exchange. I'm sure he sees himself as one of the only leaders with the will and vision to do what is "necessary" in such a choice. Hint, for Putin it wouldn't be to choose capitulation.Originally posted by BeBro View PostComment
-
Where has Russia been putting most of its military spending? It hasn't been conventional forces. Putin may have intended his special Ukrainian operation to serve only as a suitable setup for his big miracle hypersonic WMD play in "retaliation" against NATO for the domestic audience. Now that the op is more liability than demonstration of Western weakness all that really changes is how he spins it into an excuse to strike, and what the setup will be.Originally posted by N35t0r View PostComment
-
It's also sobering to those who are any putting faith in sanctions to restrain or at least punish Putin, that after collapsing to a historic low at the end of February, the rouble has rebounded to its pre-war level. How many currencies are anywhere near that resilient?Comment
-
Putin successfully made several nuclear threats that so far are being ignored. Since then he's successfully united the US and its allies and is bravely enduring both foreign sanctions vs. Russia and arms deliveries to Ukraine without using WMDs. The emperor has no clothes.BlahComment
-
Take a look at traded volumes. The rouble is only 'stable' because the Russian central bank is propping it up using reserves and the foreign cash they've forced private enterprises to sell. There's also restrictions on buying foreign currency in place. Furthermore, a lot of the places where they used to spend those dollars (importing products from the US and Europe) are no longer available, so that does reduce the demand a bit. All of this can only be held up for so long, and is happening at the expense of the Russian economy.Originally posted by Geronimo View Post
For an example, look at the ARS / USD exchange rate in December 2015. There was a ~30% reduction in the value of the Argentine peso overnight, and the only change was that existing restrictions to buying dollars were lifted.Indifference is BlissComment
-
if trump gets elected the baltics are gone.
poland not so much because it will take an attack there for the whole EU to get off its ass and force a united military force that will be the end of all those wanna be dictators from putin to erdogan.
and NATO would ne no more too if trump gets electedComment
-
It's not about making nuclear threats. It's about making one and following through. So far Putin has only made vague warnings. If he actually follows through with a WMD attack on NATO, then the die will have been cast.Originally posted by BeBro View PostComment
-
Probably. Although Putin could have pushed this any time and chose this year, so maybe he thinks Trump would retaliate. Regardless, I'd be desperate to see the fool actually do something concrete to support NATO or the risk of Putin assuming Trump didn't care would be huge.Originally posted by Bereta_Eder View Post
Again though, the danger isn't so much that Putin will assume Washington won't care and do nothing but that it will care but be too terrified of the apocalypse to act.Comment
-
I'm constantly surprised when i listen to the news.
for example i was suprirsed when i heard that putin invaded ukraine. I'd never have thought this to be possible/likely.
and just two days ago I was surprised that ukraine but also various other european countries are stocking up onm iodine pills (for radiation after a nuclear attack)
I was dumb to think putin won't attack and possibly I'm dumb about a milloin other things.
but my instinct says that a trump witha putin now, is the end of nato, an invasion to the baltics and a unitied european armyComment
-
The greatest danger to Nato right now is a Le Pen victory in France. One wonders what the French electorate is thinking.“It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”
― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of ManComment
Comment