Prediction Thread: When Will Russia Conquer Ukraine

[Donegeal]

Russia put out it's official number of dead so far: 1,300. I'm sure it's more, but I'm going to plug away with this "official" number.

US dead in Afghanistan
2,420 in 238 months. Just over 10 casualties per month. Ukraine has been 130 times as deadly for Russia than Afghanistan was for the US.

US dead in Vietnam
58,281 in 234 months. Just over 249 casualties per month. Ukraine has been 5.22 times as deadly for Russia than Vietnam was for the US.

Eeee... things are NOT going well for Putin.

[pchang]

That assumes anyone in Russia cares about their casualty numbers. The Russian army is mostly constituted from their ethnic minorities. The “white Caucasian” Russians make up less than 20% of the casualties. No one in Moscow sheds tears for the killed ethnic Russians from the rural areas.

[Dinner]

It appears that never wins. Russia states their intent was never to take over Ukraine. They just wanted to degrade Ukraine’s military and consolidate their hold on the Eastern part of Ukraine.

They do seem to be down grading compared to their original demands. That is a good thing.

[Berzerker]

what original demands

[Donegeal]

That Ukraine doesn't deserve to exist as an independent county.

[Dinner]

That assumes anyone in Russia cares about their casualty numbers. The Russian army is mostly constituted from their ethnic minorities. The “white Caucasian” Russians make up less than 20% of the casualties. No one in Moscow sheds tears for the killed ethnic Russians from the rural areas.

Putin seems to care enough to at least lie about the number of dead and wounded to the Russian people. Thus why he is only reporting about 10% of the KIA. He knows that when he loses public opinion at ho!e he is done thus all the propaganda lies and hiding of facts.

[BlackCat]

They do seem to be down grading compared to their original demands. That is a good thing.

Honestly, no sane person will ever consider anything than a total redraw of all russian forces from all Ukranian areas as reasonable.

[Dauphin]

That assumes anyone in Russia cares about their casualty numbers. The Russian army is mostly constituted from their ethnic minorities. The “white Caucasian” Russians make up less than 20% of the casualties. No one in Moscow sheds tears for the killed ethnic Russians from the rural areas.

I think those in the firing line might. Desertion, surrender, etc.

[pchang]

Russians have Chechens acting like the old NKVD. They are the enforcers who shoot troops who desert or retreat.

[Dinner]

Yeah, moral was so low and desertion so high Putin supposedly brought back Stalin's old death squads. At least according to several Russian P.O.W.s.

[Dinner]

Honestly, no sane person will ever consider anything than a total redraw of all russian forces from all Ukranian areas as reasonable.

I agree. That was why Biden's coffee the cuff comments about possible territorial concessions was so wprrying. Then again, the guy literally doesn't know where he is most of the time, has dementia, and craps his pants regularly so... I doubt he remembers what he said much less why he said it.

[-Jrabbit]

But you digress. Focus, dude.

[N35t0r]

Yeah, his spelling is certainly also top-notch.

[BeBMan]

Honestly, no sane person will ever consider anything than a total redraw of all russian forces from all Ukranian areas as reasonable.

Bah, the mighty Russian army will never withdraw!

Otoh they might consider redefining their objectives to "border defence" at some point, and claim victory

[Gertrude]

The level of security this paranoid president has is certainly going to be absurdly enormous and thorough. Also things look a lot less desperate in Russia than in Ukraine and despite huge bounties and people hoping it might end the war, there doesn't seem to be many domestic attempts by Ukrainians to assassinate Zelensky so I would think Putin's odds of being assassinated by a Russian are likely much lower than Zelensky's of being assassinated by a Ukrainian.

OTOH, speculation about a serious health condition is stoked not only by his puffy fragile appearance lately but also by his actions. One justification he gave for his special military operations was that he didn't want to leave it for future rulers of Russia.

Many rulers have been assassinated by one their guards or advisers or household staff. There are even examples of guards watching and doing nothing while their leader is killed. This invasion is looking increasingly like a major blunder by Putin with negative consequences for Russia, mountingcosts and casualties with decreasing outlook for a victory.

[Geronimo]

Many rulers have been assassinated by one their guards or advisers or household staff. There are even examples of guards watching and doing nothing while their leader is killed. This invasion is looking increasingly like a major blunder by Putin with negative consequences for Russia, mountingcosts and casualties with decreasing outlook for a victory.

Nobody close enough to Putin to kill him is close enough to the truth about Ukraine to be desperate enough to try.

[Serb]

Putin will be killed before Ukraine falls.

What would you do when your Washington D.С. will be vaporized in retaliation?

[Serb]

Russia put out it's official number of dead so far: 1,300. I'm sure it's more, but I'm going to plug away with this "official" number.

US dead in Afghanistan
2,420 in 238 months. Just over 10 casualties per month. Ukraine has been 130 times as deadly for Russia than Afghanistan was for the US.

US dead in Vietnam
58,281 in 234 months. Just over 249 casualties per month. Ukraine has been 5.22 times as deadly for Russia than Vietnam was for the US.

Eeee... things are NOT going well for Putin.

Afghanistan was in blockade for decades, aside Ukraine supplied by the West for decades.

Wanna compare the numbers with US performance in Vietnam?

[pchang]

He already did.

[BeBMan]

rofl

[Serb]

I've mean the total number of casualities. We won't stay there for a decade.

[giblets]

What would you do when your Washington D.С. will be vaporized in retaliation?

Celebrate?

[Wezil]

Are Serb's excuses a tacit admission that things aren't going well?

[EPW]

Interesting thread contemplating the collapse of Russia:

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507819508609679364

[-Jrabbit]

Serb should definitely read this. Excellent example of Western zombie brainwashing via excessive use of historical facts.