Prediction Thread: When Will Russia Conquer Ukraine

[Wezil]

Canada calls out Russia and the Russians accuse us of bad manners. I wonder where bombing civilians and killing children fit in on the etiquette continuum?

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/russia-and-canada-in-twitter-spat-over-kindergarten-level-un-letter-post-1.5824208

[My Wife Hates CIV]

[Wezil]

So true. The former "client states" of the USSR couldn't wait to sever their ties at the end of the Cold War and they were just oppressed. Ukrainians will be hating Russians for generations now.

Putin may ultimately occupy Ukraine with is army but he will not control it.

[BeBMan]

Almost a full month in, week 5 is to begin. Kremlin sez all is going acc. to the plan. Must be the bestestest plan ever.

Yesterday there was this rather amusing anecdote:

(...)

But on Monday, the Russian tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda, which frequently posts pro-Kremlin news reports, published a bombshell buried deep in a news story about the war: “According to Russian defence ministry data … 9,861 Russian soldiers had been killed in action and another 16,153 had been wounded.”

Just minutes later, the line was gone. No other Russian news agencies reported the remarks, and it was not clear why Komsomolskaya Pravda alone would have access to that information.

Screenshots and archived versions of the deleted report quickly went viral, as critics pointed to the article as evidence that the Kremlin was suffering catastrophic losses in the month-old war.

The paper later claimed that its site had been hacked. “Access to the administrative interface was hacked on the Komsomolskaya Pravda website and a fake was made in this publication about the situation around the special operation in Ukraine,” the website wrote. “The false information was immediately deleted.”

(...)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/22/how-many-russian-soldiers-died-ukraine-losses

[N35t0r]

So 0.61 dead:wounded rato.

For comparison, US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan suffered a 0.13 dead:wounded ratio, and in Vietnam, 0.24.

[Geronimo]

Almost a full month in, week 5 is to begin. Kremlin sez all is going acc. to the plan. Must be the bestestest plan ever.

Yesterday there was this rather amusing anecdote:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/22/how-many-russian-soldiers-died-ukraine-losses

Accurate casualty estimates are probably handled as top level state secrets by Russia, not sent to tabloids. The tabloid was probably hacked.

[N35t0r]

The numbers match western estimates.

[Wezil]

The numbers match western estimates.

That would support the "hacked" theory would it not? If they were Russian numbers they would be far less imo.

[N35t0r]

That would support the "hacked" theory would it not? If they were Russian numbers they would be far less imo.

If they had reported ""official"" Russian numbers, they wouldn't have pulled the article. If someone there actually managed to get a source in the Russian MoD, then a more accurate number is to be expected.

If it was hackers, they might as well have exaggerated deaths, so to me it's not conclusive (either way).

[BeBMan]

Even if it's the result of a hack, removing it, and not providing any plausible numbers themselves over weeks shows how problematic this whole issue is for them.

[Proteus_MST]

So, how is russias invasion going?

Obviously not so good

Ukaines airspace is still contested

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-22-22/h_cfe46c842a06a799d25f01a6c6e03c74

Russia evacuated all choppers from a conquered airport that they had used in there days before as base for its air attacks.
The choppers were driven away by trucks ... seems like it either was too dangerous to sart them (due to ukrainian stingers or the like),
or that the choppers have been damaged beyond field repair (or that Russia is lacking the manpower (either field mechanics or pilots) to repair and/or fly them

https://twitter.com/cliffordlevy/status/1506375568362774532

https://twitter.com/serg_south/status/1504895577158475785

Ukraina reconquered a village west of Kiev ... Makariv ... and are working on retaking another village, Borodyanka
Also in the south, Ukrainian counterattacks have driven the Russian troops away from the north of Mykolaiv

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-22-22/h_bdadbe59d3c959936ed6322a6dcbc51a

Seeems like things currently aren't working well for Goliath Russia (in its fight against David Ukraina)

[Buster Crabbe's Uncle]

I'd venture the clown -someone high up in the Ukraine gov, anyway- has been preparing for this....

[BeBMan]

Russia evacuated all choppers from a conquered airport that they had used in there days before as base for its air attacks.
The choppers were driven away by trucks ... seems like it either was too dangerous to sart them (due to ukrainian stingers or the like),
or that the choppers have been damaged beyond field repair (or that Russia is lacking the manpower (either field mechanics or pilots) to repair and/or fly them

https://twitter.com/cliffordlevy/status/1506375568362774532

https://twitter.com/serg_south/status/1504895577158475785

Didn't know they evac-ed the helis...but earlier there were reports that Ukraine hit this airport (I assume it's that one) after Russia took it over:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/ukraines-military-says-it-hit-kherson-airport/articleshow/90284992.cms

[BeBMan]

Also some reports (nothing that can be confirmed from what I've seen) that Ukraine is counterattacking on several fronts. Which would be huge if true. Their situation will deteriorate when (if?) Mariupol falls, and reportedly they were running low on water and ammunition.

To come back to that, there are now several of these counter attacks confirmed. No idea how much on an impact this will have in the long run, but so far some seem to be successful:

One is the recapture of Makariv Proteus mentioned above. There's also progress reported near Mykolaiv and some counterattack near Kharkiv, tho without any hint on how it's going in the latter case. Right now Ukraine also claims to have regained control over "almost" all of Irpin:

Almost all of the town of Irpin, which has seen fierce fighting in recent weeks, is in Ukrainian hands, the mayor of Kyiv has said.

Earlier in March, thousands of residents fled Irpin, which is just 20km (12 miles) north-west of Kyiv, across the remnants of a blown-up bridge as Russian artillery and air strikes pummelled the area.

Vitali Klitschko told journalists Ukrainian forces had pushed back troops there and also in the town of Makariv, west of Kyiv.

(...)

Bibs



Who knew we'd sit here in 2022 and study news from the front lines...

[N35t0r]

Yeah, I've seen a couple of reports that works place a lot of Russian forces NW of Kiyv very close to encirclement.

If they manage that, and to push the Russians off the west back of the Dnieper, it would mean a major improvement to Ukrainian positions.

On the other hand, there were reports that Russian air sorties were ramping up to ~300 power day (which would still be comically low for a first-rate air power), as Ukrainian barely have enough planes to manage anything close to 50. Ukrainians are mostly targeting Russian planes, while Russian sorties are mostly ground support. With Ukrainian AAA assets in the east severely degraded (with the notable exception of manpads), the Russians can do high-altitude missions without much risk. A possible upside is that they have been mostly firing smart munitions from inside Russia or Belarus to avoid getting close to active Ukrainian SAMs, and they don't seem to have a lot of those left.