Prediction Thread: When Will Russia Conquer Ukraine

[Wezil]

He's the "End of History..." author, which was optimistic and wrong. I don't hold it against him though as political science is an educated form of tea leaf reading.

Let's hope he gets this one right since what he describes would be one of the better outcomes.

[BlackCat]

The cost that Ukraine is paying is enormous, of course. But the greatest damage is being done by rockets and artillery, which neither MiGs nor a no-fly zone can do much about. The only thing that will stop the slaughter is defeat of the Russian army on the ground.

Local news has said that only eight out of 43 missiles hit in the latest attack (in the west) because the rest was shut down.

[N35t0r]

*shot down

[pchang]

Reports are that one of the things that Russia asked China for was food (in the form of military rations). Since China never does things for free, I think we may see a new Oil for Food program.

[Bereta_Eder]

It doesn't matter if it will conquer it or not.
It will never really conquer it btw.

What putin has managed is turn people that indeed some time might have had brotherly feelings towards eachother into vicious enemies. The hatred that Ukrianians have now for Russians will last generations. Ukraine will always be a thorn in Russia side, it will never be subdued and it will prompt immense pain for the average russian and the end of Putin.

Ever nuclear war shouldn't phase anyone. This is light against darkness. Democracy against Dictatorship. What is a planet worth if it is not free? Democracy and freedom untill the end freckers. That's what I say. That's what everyone says.

Some of the ground to ground missiles Greece sent would have taken out some russian tanks by now. We want to "kindred" spirits with these murderers. Freck them.

A serious side effect of this crisis is the de-dictatorshiation and de-russifipropagandation of whole european countries. Russia is murder. And everyone knows it.

Millions should go out and topple the regime. The west is not the enemy. It's just a bunch of *******s like everyone else. Russians should get out and bring that dictatorship down. Many countries have done it, including Greece. With cost of lives. When you stand silent and let evil reign, that's what you get.

Anyway soon Russia will be bankrupt and a chinese concumbine. I guess it has decided to kiss europe goodbye for ever. This will last generations.

[BeBMan]

Interesting article. I doubt things are quite as dire for the Russian forces as it suggests, but the line about troops carrying their dress uniforms into battle is priceless...

There was this vid a couple days ago showing a Russian tank formation near Kiyv driving closely together in 2 or 3 parallel columns down the street, with a long single column of other vehicles following behind.

I don't claim to be a military expert, but seeing this I was thinking immediately "what are they doing, looks like they are on a parade".

Then there were a couple hit and those still intact started to crawl backwards.


Re the bit about China/Taiwan, FWIW I read a while ago that Taiwan would be difficult to attack - at least if China wants to actually take it (what everyone assumes), not just destroy everything by air/missiles. It would require a huge amphibious ops, like DDay on steroids. Which, the article said, is something China is not able to do currently - they might be at some point in the future tho.

No idea how accurate this is


Re the Ukraine/UN bit - Wondering if we see UN humanitarian convoys going to those besieged cities, as things are reportedly desperate there in regards to food, water, medical aid etc. Of course this is something that the UN can't just "enforce" on its own, but maybe those negotiations are producing something positive.

[pchang]

1 good attack submarine and your whole amphibious assault could wind up at the bottom of the sea.

[Uncle Sparky]

Wishing Putin and his generals a traditional Ides of March!

[Proteus_MST]

Wishing Putin and his generals a traditional Ides of March!

Seems like the Ides of March came and went without anyone sticking daggers in Putins body

[BeBMan]

Yeah, major disappointment about the lack of PutinBrutus so far...maybe the logistics are a prob

Otoh week 4 is about to begin, and the first poll option is moot now. Fortunately nobody voted for it.

Just sayin'

[Proteus_MST]

I am surprised Serb didn't vote in the poll.

I have no doubts that he would have chosen "Before March 15th"

[EPW]

The last few days have made it clear that the war is lost for Russia. The only question now is how long it will take Putin to accept that fact.

[EPW]

There are also some whispers filtering through of mutiny in the Russian ranks...

[N35t0r]

Also some reports (nothing that can be confirmed from what I've seen) that Ukraine is counterattacking on several fronts. Which would be huge if true. Their situation will deteriorate when (if?) Mariupol falls, and reportedly they were running low on water and ammunition.

[pchang]

Putin thinks he IS Russia and that Russia is him. If he thinks he will be ousted, he will order the use of nuclear weapons. It will then be up to the Russian generals to decide that Putin != Russia or proceed with the destruction of the planet.

[Proteus_MST]

L´etat, c`est moi

[Jon Miller]

I am worried about that.

JM

[BlackCat]

Also some reports (nothing that can be confirmed from what I've seen) that Ukraine is counterattacking on several fronts. Which would be huge if true. Their situation will deteriorate when (if?) Mariupol falls, and reportedly they were running low on water and ammunition.

According to a local military expert (active danish colonel or like) claims that the Ukrainans are doing an unfair fight :

1) they make strongholds in the destroyed civilian areas.
2) they attack high ranking russian command posts which is pretty bad since russian soldiers need to be told what to do.
3) when the russians attack, they just not defend and destroy what is comming, but also make small counterattacks to clean up

They even do it against russian units that has been heavily decimated and don't wait for fresh russian replacements that apparently are on the way from far away sites like siberia.

[giblets]

How unsportsmanlike