Prediction Thread: When Will Russia Conquer Ukraine

[Uncle Sparky]

Perhaps Serbia is buying on behalf of Russia in addition to their own wants.

Bosnia is disintegrating again. I wouldn't be surprised if they 'protect Serbian interests' in Bosnia.

[Geronimo]

it has bought a ton of chinese stuff but i think russia could get it directly if it wanted it.

it has a deal for french jets, I'm positive the french have clauses that won't allow these jets to go to russia

she might want to re-take kosovo with russian aid.

that's all guesses. noonne know for sure yet

but it is confirmed and it is strange

If Serbia retakes Kosovo it would be pretty much exactly as bad or good as Ukraine retaking the Donbas region.

[Geronimo]

I guess Ria Novosti didn't judge the appallingly supportive mass of 1400+ comments to be sufficiently denazified. The whole lot of comments has been removed.

[BeBMan]

A lot of the electronics in the more modern (or modernized) Russian tanks is French. The French will sell arms and military equipment to pretty much anybody...

There was a news bit quite some time ago that (one of ?) the main tank factories in Russia basically stopped working. Not sure if that ever got confirmed.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...e-claim-2022-3

[Proteus_MST]

I am sure the russians won't publicly tell, if this indeed is the case

But it surely sounds likely, that especially repair (or assembly) of the electronic equipment of the tanks may have problems due to the lack of supplies of ICEs/microchips from western countries

[N35t0r]

There was a news bit quite some time ago that (one of ?) the main tank factories in Russia basically stopped working. Not sure if that ever got confirmed.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...e-claim-2022-3

Yeah, Uralvagonzavod, it manufactures the T-72, T-90 and T-14 tanks. It already suffered from the 2015 sanctions, between those and general teething issues, T-14 production which was supposed to total over 2000 units in the period since, hasn't managed more than a handful of units.

[Bereta_Eder]

If Serbia retakes Kosovo it would be pretty much exactly as bad or good as Ukraine retaking the Donbas region.

I agree even if serbs maltreated muslims in a way that ukrainaes didn't maltreat russian minorities, it's still very similar.

Actually the "intervantion" the bloody murderous war of NATO is what made serbs wary of the west and you have countries like croatia or even albania or even north macedonia, far inferior in whars regards sociopolitical maturity being admitted to western strictures and the serbs, quite understabdably but tragically refusing to do so.

[Bereta_Eder]

very nice description of what's happening by a young russian

it's sad when fascists win

[BeBMan]

Russia's defence ministry said that an explosion aboard Moskva, the flagship of the country's Black Sea Fleet, has "seriously damaged" the vessel.

The ministry's statement said: "The cruiser Moskva's ammunition has detonated as a result of a fire on the warship.

"The vessel is seriously damaged. The entire crew have been evacuated. The cause of the blaze is being investigated."

It did not specify the cause of the fire, saying it was under investigation.

Ukraine said the 186m-long vessel was struck by their Neptune missiles.

(...)

Bibs

[Proteus_MST]

So, when will the rest of the russian black sea fleet sing:
"I follow the Moskva ..."

After all, a good fleet should follow its flagship

[Geronimo]

So, when will the rest of the russian black sea fleet sing:
"I follow the Moskva ..."

After all, a good fleet should follow its flagship

It was hit with Ukrainian missiles. Given Ukraine is in no shape to manufacture more and will not have left a lot of them laying about by this point, maybe that's going to be the first and only such success.

[N35t0r]

It was hit with Ukrainian missiles. Given Ukraine is in no shape to manufacture more and will not have left a lot of them laying about by this point, maybe that's going to be the first and only such success.

Why do you say that? The biggest use for anti-ship missiles to Ukraine is in discouraging/repelling Russian amphibious invasions. It was only recently that these stopped being an immediate threat (and I don't think it has been 100% taken off the table), so it would make sense that Ukraine has not been wasting them willy-nilly (and we haven't heard of pretty much any other strike on Russian ships with ASMs).

Now with the lower risk of a naval operation on the side of Russia, and the UK delivering some lower-ranged ASMs, it makes sense for Ukraine to start being a bit less stringent with their stockpile.

[Geronimo]

Why do you say that? The biggest use for anti-ship missiles to Ukraine is in discouraging/repelling Russian amphibious invasions. It was only recently that these stopped being an immediate threat (and I don't think it has been 100% taken off the table), so it would make sense that Ukraine has not been wasting them willy-nilly (and we haven't heard of pretty much any other strike on Russian ships with ASMs).

Now with the lower risk of a naval operation on the side of Russia, and the UK delivering some lower-ranged ASMs, it makes sense for Ukraine to start being a bit less stringent with their stockpile.

I hope you're right. It does seem risky to delay using such assets in this kind of existential threat conflict given the risks of them being destroyed or captured.

[Wezil]

So, when will the rest of the russian black sea fleet sing:
"I follow the Moskva ..."

After all, a good fleet should follow its flagship

The Ukrainians have begun liberating oppressed Russian ships.

[Proteus_MST]

The Ukrainians have begun liberating oppressed Russian ships.

Ukrainian farmers already see their chance:
https://twitter.com/uasupport999/sta...58467280183300