Wot no coronavirus thread? Thread broken - see new thread

[giblets]

Let's hold a gender reveal party for Covid

[BeBMan]

Putin has decided to not allow a virus gap.

[MOBIUS]

I'm worried about KH. Has he followed his own advice and caught coronavirus....?

[Egbert]

Do not worry about KH. It will be his dented ego keeping him away because his poasts were regarded by all as errant nonsense rather than as the wishom he thought he was imparting.

His ego will recover.

[-Jrabbit]

He will be back to declare victory when he feels vindicated by cherry-picked data.

[pchang]

Perhaps he was just anxious because he did not have a “lockdown sex buddy”, like the Dutch recommend.

[Dauphin]

He’s around. Just lurking.

[Dauphin]

U.K. survey suggest about 10% infection, meaning 0.5% IFR based on attributed deaths, or closer to 0.8% on an excess mortality basis.

I don’t trust survey data, so margin of error will be large, but large population stats are pointing towards a 0.6-0.8% IFR, accounting for unattributed deaths.

[pchang]

R0 looks to be about 4. Herd immunity would require 1 - 1/R0 of the population to get the disease or be vaccinated, so this would be 75%. Without a vaccine, using the US we get 330 million *.75 * .007 =~ 1.7 million deaths to achieve herd immunity.

[Dauphin]

As long as they are all poor, old plebs. No problem!

Seriously though, it’s not a happy number to see.

[Jon Miller]

Well, he was wrong about one specific but he might be close to right if you modify it a little to 'let it happen as long as the hospitals are not overwhelmed'. This is because (https://www.themoneyillusion.com/som...ive-caseloads/) the US as a whole is a bit of a 'failed state' and so can't get on a Germany or South Korea track.

This, of course, still assumes that pchang is not correct, and that we don't get a significant treatments over the course of the March-August. There are currently three promising routes: interferon beta-1b + Lopinavir-ritonavir (an HIV drug) + ribavirin, remdesivir and human antibodies.

The 20% (of New Yorkers) is from 3 weeks ago now, so it might be that significantly more New Yorkers have now had it. The epidemic in New York is definitely decreasing though.

JM

[pchang]

There is already Remdesivir. Also, there are the camelid nanobodies. The problem is scaling up production of these treatments fast enough. Even so, I believe treatments can reduce the IFR by at least half.

[Dauphin]

Also, the completed NYC antibody study was revised downwards, so the estimated IFR has gone up since.

[Dauphin]

Apparently a vaccine has proved successful in monkeys, and successful results in other animals as well.

[pchang]

This is a pretty decent list of things that are going on currently. I have high hopes for the Moderna vaccine. I know one of the principals there and he has an incredible track record.

[BeBMan]

I'm waiting for those Llama antibodies. Hope they extract the redundant "l" in the process

[Uncle Sparky]

But... the extra L might end up in your bllood!!

[Dauphin]

It gets annoying in Spain. Are you asking my name or inquiring about my llama?

[pchang]

Mexico is opening up without doing testing. Looks like they are willing (129 million *.75*.005 =~ 500,000) to deal with 500,000 excess deaths in order to get to herd immunity.

[Dauphin]

Looking at stats on deaths that could be caused by lockdown. Essentially, the numbers suggest they are ‘trace’ on the short term.

Countries with large volumes of recorded Covid cases AND lockdowns have large volumes of unattributed cases. The unattributed cases are weighted to early days of outbreaks or low levels of testing, not to hospital usage. (UK, NYC, Italy, France, Spain, etc...)
Countries with large volumes of recorded Covid cases WITH NO lockdown have large volumes of unattributed cases. The unattributed cases are weighted to early days of outbreaks or low level testing. (Sweden, South America to varying extent)
Countries with smaller volumes of recorded Covid cases AND lockdowns have virtually no unattributed cases. If lockdown were a measurable cause, there would be a measurable uptick. (Austria, Denmark, Greece, Germany, etc).

On the longer term, we may see upticks in things like cancer due to lack of diagnoses or earlier treatment.