Predict the US midterm results.

[ZEE]

I love bets.


OK so Spambot and Ben Kenobi in an avatar bet. Let's make it happen!

[spambot]

If I were to quote the predictit odds on ND alone it would be around 5 percent, and that's just for one state. All that has to happen is that one of those states flips the other way and you lose. 20 percent? My ass. Again, he's taking advantage of people not understanding how probabilities work.

Silver claims that the Democrats have a roughly 1 in 4 chance of holding North Dakota. I don't know much about his methodology, but I'm guessing it doesn't consist of quoting betting markets.

[spambot]

Heck, if you trust Predictit, just look at the prices for the Republicans holding 49 or fewer seats, 50 seats, 51 seats, etc.:
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...-2018-midterms

Evidently betters think there is a roughly one in eight chance of the Democrats holding the Senate, and their median expectation is around 52 seats for the Republicans.

[spambot]

Here's the market for "Which party will control the Senate after the 2018 midterm elections"

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/2703/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2018-midterms

14c for the Dems, 86c for the Republicans. Since you evidently know that the Dems have a 1% chance of taking the Senate, this looks like easy money for you.

[Jon Miller]

Voted, first time in a midterm.

JM

[Kidlicious]

I don't think that many Ds are going to vote.

[Ben Kenobi]

Silver claims that the Democrats have a roughly 1 in 4 chance of holding North Dakota. I don't know much about his methodology, but I'm guessing it doesn't consist of quoting betting markets

So how do we price this? Avatar bet over time? 4 months for me, one for you if the Democrats take the Senate..

[ZEE]

Now we are having a real conversation. Lets sign a..

CONTRACT.

[Ben Kenobi]

14c for the Dems, 86c for the Republicans. Since you evidently know that the Dems have a 1% chance of taking the Senate, this looks like easy money for you.

Yeah. Problem is that with, say, 100 dollars I'd net about 114. There's an opportunity cost of tying up 100 dollars. If I could do more I'd pay off a few bills that way, but I'm pretty sure it's capped.

[spambot]

So how do we price this? Avatar bet over time? 4 months for me, one for you if the Democrats take the Senate..

The time duration isn't as important as the fact that you won the bet. I'm not going to bet on the Dems taking the Senate.

[-Jrabbit]

Voted.

I always vote a little after 10am, when there's rarely much of a wait.
Today, that polling place was significantly more crowded than usual.

[Ming]

Yeah... I went in at the same time as I did last mid terms, and it was much more crowded this time as well
But then again, we vote at the same place

[rah]

I voted just after lunch, and there was no line, as expected

[Dinner]

I have noticed several pundits predicting Dems pick up 32 in tye house and one in the Senate. My prediction is less rosie but I am sticking with it.

[Aeson]

Christ. 20 percent Democrat chances to win the Senate? It's more like 1 percent. Anyone here want to take that bet up with me? Seriously, 538 is taking advantage of people's lack of numeracy.

So to be clear, you’re offering a payout of 99 for every 1 bet?