Elon Musk

[Aeson]

Their net income in 2017 was -$2billion ... and has been negative every year. Not only that, but their losses have been accelerating. This is in the 9th year of an economic expansion with the Fed pumping free money into the economy. When the crash comes, and it will come eventually ... it's going to be very hard for these debt fuelled corporations to continue to find suckers to give them money to lose. I'll believe in TSLA when they at least break even (after factoring out subsidies).

Judging by how well shorts do is silly. You and I both know the stock market is in a debt fuelled bubble right now. The only thing stopping either of us from becoming billionaires off this knowledge is timing it right. If you can time it right, you can own the world in a couple months. Timing these things is essentially impossible though, and shorts tend to be especially time sensitive. Shorts can get crushed even when a stock really is headed to oblivion. A lot of shorts got crushed on Lehman for instance. There's always short squeezes along the way down even if there's no "good" news, as shorts take profits and it squeezes the rest, sparking fear.

I'm not saying TSLA is a 0, there's definitely value there ... but I do believe it's quite overvalued for what it's current position is.

[Dinner]

Most of that had to do with construction costs and new model design costs. You expect it to cost a lot of money up front when you build a giant factory like the Gigafactpry and it costs several billion to design a new car model. The payback comes when the factory is up and running and actually selling cars. Remember they already have a backlog of 150,000 buyers who put down payments for a new Model 3.

Once their economies of scale have been reached it will actually be cheaper to make electric cars than ICE cars as the engines are so much less complicated with few moving parts yet they will be selling them for slightly more money so their margins will be great.

[pchang]

Comparing engines is misleading. The complicated parts of ICE are the engine and transmission. The complicated parts of the Electrics are the batteries and power management. It is not clear to me that Electrics will be cheaper to manufacture than ICEs for quite some time.

[Dinner]

I guess that is the million dollar question. A lot of really smart people say yes but I guess we shall see.

[Dinner]

https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4182419-tesla-semi-losing-appeal-rivals

For the negative, I do think an electric semi truck would be a money loser. There is one large established rival already doing it along with at least three start ups and one additional established player racing to reach this market. Most semis are for ling haul trucking which is the market electrics are least suitable for. Electric semis are most suitable for short haul daily route driving which is a much more limited market.

Musk should not bother with a Semi imho.

[ricketyclik]

Most of that had to do with construction costs and new model design costs. You expect it to cost a lot of money up front when you build a giant factory like the Gigafactpry and it costs several billion to design a new car model. The payback comes when the factory is up and running and actually selling cars. Remember they already have a backlog of 150,000 buyers who put down payments for a new Model 3.

Once their economies of scale have been reached it will actually be cheaper to make electric cars than ICE cars as the engines are so much less complicated with few moving parts yet they will be selling them for slightly more money so their margins will be great.

Electric engines are clearly the way to go, particularly once the grid is powered by renewables, but Musk is a fvckin' wanker who in true capitalist tradition takes all the glory while exploiting his workers for all they're worth.

[Dinner]

https://electrek.co/2018/07/01/tesla...elon-musk/amp/

7000 Model 3s built this week. About 2000 over the goal of 5000. This is said to be sustainable and they are still working to optimize the lines. The next goal is 10,000 a week which seems well with in reach. BTW most of these being sold are top of the line models with just about every option. They still have several hundred thousand preorders still to fill so every car built already had an owner before it is built.

Yes, they are going to be making a lot of profit on these model 3s. Production cost seems to currently be around $30k (and dropping quickly with scale) while average sale price is just under $70k. Those are giant profit margins. Most car companies are lucky to make $4k profit on a car while Tesla is getting 100% mark ups. Do you understand why analysts are practically jizzing in their pants at such profit margins?

[Dinner]

I saw an artist rendering of a Tesla RV/Motor Home which is said to be built on the semi frame. That might squeeze out a few more units for the semi depending on how much parts commonality they have but it still seems like a niche product line.

[Elok]

Well, if his big dreams and big promises never quite pan out, he's at least picked an appropriate name for his company. But I do hope Tesla keeps going.

[Dinner]

Hmm, actually he made 5000 model 3s and 2000 of Model S and Model X. For a total of 7000.

[pchang]

Tesla built a second assembly line (supposedly from spare parts) inside a huge tent. Most analysts believe that while they can produce more cars this way, the car quality will be quite bad.

[Dinner]

I heard of these fears. We shall see. So far their car initial quality ratings are higher than Toyota. I am willing to see if that changes but their record so far is really good.

[pchang]

The biggest news out of the tent assembly line is that Tesla had to give up on their visions of an almost fully automated production line. They have had to rip out a number of automated processes and hire a lot more workers. This cannot be good for their margins.

[OneFootInTheRave]

[OneFootInTheRave]

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