Okay, what can we realistically expect from a Trump presidency?

[Giancarlo]

By the way, he is already going to face significant legal problems. With a potential RICO charge.

[Giancarlo]

Of course not. We preserve order via the police, military, and law enforcement agencies like the FBI, which . . . erm . . . all seem to be pretty pro-Trump, really.

The judicial system is not. And as far as the FBI, I am sure Obama will do some purging before he leaves.

[Elok]

All those guys with guns better watch out. RBG is very spry for her age, and knows some sweet gavel-fu moves.

[Giancarlo]

All those guys with guns better watch out. RBG is very spry for her age, and knows some sweet gavel-fu moves.

All those guys with guns will wind up dying by the sword if they try anything. there is still enough independence in law enforcement. Stop exaggerating.

[Aeson]

I think Trump has to continue to represent his base. He can't get re-elected without them. He might not even be able to get the party nomination for a second term without them. He has to play to the base and then use them to force the other Rs to vote party lines.

Though without the looming SCOTUS position I don't know if that works. Against Hillary, the second least liked candidate in modern history, he basically won by a couple hundred thousand votes in PA, WI, and MI. (Or whatever other combination of swing states you want to use.) While perhaps losing in the overall popular vote. It's definitely razor edge stuff in the best possible circumstances. All those traditional R voters who held their nose to get conservative SCOTUS nominees may not be able to do so next time. Certainly they won't be as motivated to turn out.

To get re-elected he has to at least appear to be working to do the things he's promised about immigration/refugees, infrastructure, foreign policy, and trade. And he probably has to do something "good" in the eyes of traditional Republicans while avoiding too much "bad". That can be done if he isn't successful at implementing most of his immigration, foreign policy and trade promises, but gets the infrastructure though and the economy does well. If he gets his trade and immigration promises, the economy won't do well. His foreign policy promises could also hurt the economy, though they don't necessarily have to.

I wouldn't count on him being unabashedly self-serving in the traditional sense though. He's built this movement and he seems to have grown very fond of it. It's HIS movement. He may actually end up acting as an ideologue, driven by his egomania rather than any real ideological commitment. That's the scary thing. I wouldn't be scared if he's just going to be working towards re-election in a workable manner.

[Elok]

Seriously, what kind of poli-sci expert are you? All governments ultimately depend on the goodwill and obedience to norms of the people within them. Trump does not like norms. He pisses on them and then takes a Snapchat of the pee splashing. Moreover, he has a very big group of people who are very, very angry, and this election has given us a very clear illustration of the extent to which this country has become divided and estranged from itself. I realize you want to reassure yourself here, but you and everybody on your side really needs to start learning from what just happened.

[Giancarlo]

Seriously, what kind of poli-sci expert are you? All governments ultimately depend on the goodwill and obedience to norms of the people within them. Trump does not like norms. He pisses on them and then takes a Snapchat of the pee splashing. Moreover, he has a very big group of people who are very, very angry, and this election has given us a very clear illustration of the extent to which this country has become divided and estranged from itself. I realize you want to reassure yourself here, but you and everybody on your side really needs to start learning from what just happened.

Watch your tone. I am not going to take lessons from you. There are more people in this country opposed to him.

Very angry? Live by the sword, die by the ****ing sword.

[Elok]

Though, in all fairness, these are some seriously grim scenarios I'm spinning here. The truth about Trump is, we just don't know what he really wants or what he's capable of. He could be a pleasant surprise. He could not.

[Giancarlo]

Though, in all fairness, these are some seriously grim scenarios I'm spinning here. The truth about Trump is, we just don't know what he really wants or what he's capable of. He could be a pleasant surprise. He could not.

He could moderate himself and try to get more moderates and some Democrats behind him. Who knows.

But I think he will be mediocre and not get anything done. Why? Congress is split.

[C0ckney]

It's too soon to say how things will shape up, or how Trump will govern. If he decides to govern conventionally or semi-conventionally, relying primarily on other government figures to get things done, that's one thing. However, seeing as he has a very fired-up group of followers (and they mostly have guns), I could see him leaning on his support base more than leaders typically do, with rather terrifying results. Haven't a number of GOP pols anonymously admitted that they were quite simply afraid to go against him? In the sense of physical safety? He could conceivably use his mob in true fascist style, as a kind of private army to apply pressure where he meets unwanted interference.

This is the kind of cheerful scenario you keep me around to provide.

i don't think that's very likely. he will have a lot of leeway using legal means, so why would he want or need to do otherwise?

as for the bold bit, i read a couple of those 'i spoke to an anonymous GOP politician who's hiding in his basement from rabid alt-right trumpistas...' and my first thought was 'hmm, an anonymous source who just happens to say all the things that you believe about trump and how bad he and his supporters are. you've just made it up, haven't you.'

[Aeson]

The best thing that could happen from a Trump presidency would be if he does go ideologue, alienates traditional Rs to the point there has to be a re-alignment of the parties, and we get a socially liberal, fiscally conservative centrist party out of it ... with the far left Socialists and far right Trumpists competing for scraps.

Of course then you run the risk of everything Trump is able to push through being horrid ... and the potential for the far left and far right to form some sort of coalition (like the Axis)

[C0ckney]

Seriously, what kind of poli-sci expert are you?

the kind who predicts massive hillary wins in florida and the dems taking SC, GA and TX.

[Elok]

The main variable that concerns me is not congress or demographics or what-have-you, but the complete unknown of what the man really wants out of this job. I don't think he could be a really capable fascist, but if he really wanted to be it dawns on me that there are probably plenty of people who'd be glad to help him. OTOH, he could mostly want to spend four to eight years copulating furiously and dedicating national days to his bowel movements. Who knows?

[Giancarlo]

The best thing that could happen from a Trump presidency would be if he does go ideologue, alienates traditional Rs to the point there has to be a re-alignment of the parties, and we get a socially liberal, fiscally conservative centrist party out of it ... with the far left Socialists and far right Trumpists competing for scraps.

Of course then you run the risk of everything Trump is able to push through being horrid ... and the potential for the far left and far right to form some sort of coalition (like the Axis)

People tend to forget that democrats could pick off more seats in 2018.

[Giancarlo]

The main variable that concerns me is not congress or demographics or what-have-you, but the complete unknown of what the man really wants out of this job. I don't think he could be a really capable fascist, but if he really wanted to be it dawns on me that there are probably plenty of people who'd be glad to help him. OTOH, he could mostly want to spend four to eight years copulating furiously and dedicating national days to his bowel movements. Who knows?

Mediocrity is what I think will happen. And incompetence. His supporters will get upset they aren't getting what they want (because Democrats won't allow it and still have a sizable influence in Congress).