Unofficial Apolyton Predicts

[Giancarlo]

Ming was baptized into the Catholic church as a baby. At some point, as a Catholic, he decided that he didn't want to follow the Church. The Church, since he's publicly stating that he disagrees with Church teachings actually has the right to deny him communion. That's how it works.

Oh here we go again...

I was baptized. It doesn't mean I am a Catholic. I left the church ages ago. I'm not sure about Ming, so I'll let him explain it.

We don't gain if we condemn other folks to hell by changing our teachings. That is what is at stake. Ming doesn't believe that homosexuality is a sin. That's one thing, publicly going out and saying, "I'm a Catholic. I believe the church is wrong and that homosexuality isn't a sin." Euhm, by canon law he could get kicked out because of that right there.

You can believe whatever you want. But please don't try to play victim and say your church is being forced to change.

Giancarlo, do you consider the following statement,

"If white people robbed you, I'd not consider it prejudice for you to be angry at white people in general."

racist?

White people are in a position of privilege. People who are angry at people that are oppressing them have a right to be.

BTW, Bernie Madoff anyone? White people even rob each other.

[Giancarlo]

Because I actually believe in what the Catholic church teaches?

Why do you stay if you believe that the Church *must* change her teaching that homosexuality is a sin?

Where is the quote? Waiting... for it. Where did she say she was going to abolish the Catholic Church or shut it down? I want specific quotes. Video too would be helpful.

Who says I'm staying? I left the Catholic Church ages ago. We went over that in that big stupid thread.

[Guynemer]

Considering I have both Ben and Giancarlo on ignore, I have no idea why I look in this thread. There is never more than 5 non-blocked posts on a page.

[Lorizael]

It's where the action is. Make some threads! Threads not about the election! Threads that can't be turned into religion ****fests! Threads that won't rehash the same ten and fifteen year old crap! Threads that aren't about Lori's personal problems! Woo!

[Elok]

Such threads are what I believe you science types call "theoretical." They can exist, they should exist, but they have never been observed.

[Giancarlo]

It's where the action is. Make some threads! Threads not about the election! Threads that can't be turned into religion ****fests! Threads that won't rehash the same ten and fifteen year old crap! Threads that aren't about Lori's personal problems! Woo!

Well don't blame me. I try to bring up masturbation and it gets ignored.

[Ming]

It's where the action is. Make some threads! Threads not about the election! Threads that can't be turned into religion ****fests! Threads that won't rehash the same ten and fifteen year old crap! Threads that aren't about Lori's personal problems! Woo!

I agree... BK, if you want to make up more BS or Lies about Hillary, start a new thread. If you want to think you are God and make claims on who is a Catholic or not, start a new thread. If you want to ignore the Pope and claim you are a better Catholic, start a new thread.
Is that clear.

[Egbert]

I agree... BK, if you want to make up more BS or Lies about Hillary, start a new thread. If you want to think you are God and make claims on who is a Catholic or not, start a new thread. If you want to ignore the Pope and claim you are a better Catholic, start a new thread.
Is that clear.

These are excellent ideas for thrade topics.

[Giancarlo]

New polls today:

GWU National Poll: Clinton +8% over Trump (47%-39%)
Rasmussen: Clinton +2% over Trump (43%-41%)

Louisiana Poll: Trump has a +7% lead (45%-38%) but that seems to be more narrow than prior polling in a state where republicans won by double digits in the past. Despite New Orleans, the rest of the state is solid red. Hillary won't win here, but this underscores the growing weaknesses for the GOP. The state did have an upset where a Democrat won as Governor, and more democrats than republicans did vote in the primary. So you never know.

[Ming]

An interesting story in USA Today...

Analysis: Trump isn't sparking Hispanic registration surge as Dems expected

MIAMI — Donald Trump's derogatory comments about Mexicans and his vow to build a wall along the southern U.S. border have failed to spark a surge in voter registrations among Hispanics living in key swing states, a USA TODAY analysis shows.

The study looked at the 50 counties with the largest Hispanic population in 10 swing states and found that voter registrations in those counties have increased during the 2016 election cycle. But the gains simply mirrored the growth in the Hispanic population and did not represent a "Trump effect" — a rush to register by Hispanics who plan to vote against the Republican presidential nominee — as some Democratic and Hispanic groups had expected.

Overall, voter rolls in those 50 counties increased by 3.8% in the lead-up to the 2016 election, compared to a 3.5% increase during the 2012 election cycle. Those increases are explained by overall population growth (2.9% this election cycle and 2.7% in the 2012 period) as well as even faster growth in the Hispanic population, which has jumped nearly 10% since 2010.

The lack of a "Trump effect" is clearer in the few states that provide voter registration data specifically for Hispanics. In Florida, the number of Hispanics registered to vote has increased 14.6% during the 2016 election cycle, nearly identical to a 14.4% increase before the 2012 election.

The findings show that Hispanics will play a larger role in the 2016 election, as the country's largest minority group continues increasing its share of the U.S. electorate, which has grown from 10% in 2012 to 12% now.

The data make clear, however, that Hispanic advocacy groups, the Democratic Party and party presidential nominee Hillary Clinton have yet to take advantage of Trump's disparaging remarks and tough immigration enforcement views.

Last year, in announcing his presidential run, Trump said of some Mexicans coming into the U.S.: "They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.” He also has called for construction of a wall along the border paid for by Mexico and questioned the qualifications of a U.S.-born federal judge because he was "Mexican."

Ali Noorani, executive director of the National Immigration Forum, a Washington-based group that advocates for immigrants' rights, blames both political parties for not doing enough to court Hispanics.

"Republicans are ignoring this growing electorate," Noorani said. "And these numbers show that Democrats are leaving a lot of votes on the table too."

Clinton's campaign has used a variety of strategies to court Hispanics. The campaign has run 40 TV ads and 24 radio ads, and pushed its message through newspapers and social media in Spanish and English targeting Hispanics. The campaign created phone banks so female Hispanic supporters call Hispanic women in the community. And the campaign has programs focused on Hispanic small businesses, Hispanic religious leaders and is even using undocumented immigrants to lobby for Clinton's policies to protect them from deportation.

Hispanic advocacy groups, such as the National Council of La Raza, have held their traditional voter registration drives. Spanish-language media organizations, such as Univision, have also led voter registration efforts. Even taco trucks have become a place to register after a Trump surrogate warned about unfettered immigration leading to a flood of taco trucks on every street corner.

Xochitl Hinojosa, a spokeswoman for Clinton's campaign, said even the slightest gains in Hispanic registrations can help decide the race in swing states like North Carolina.

"That is why we're doing everything we can to register and turnout Latino voters," she said. "We've invested in the Latino community since day one of this campaign, and will continue to do so until Election Day."

The Trump campaign did not respond to requests for comment.

Analyzing how Hispanics are registering to vote across different states is difficult. The secretaries of state of most states publish the total number of people who have registered to vote and many break that down by party affiliation, but very few provide data that identifies Hispanic voters.

To get around those limitations, USA TODAY used data from the Pew Research Center to identify the five counties with the largest population of Hispanics in each of 10 swing states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

The analysis compared voter registration data from election officials in each state from the beginning of 2015 through the end of the summer of 2016. (States report voter registration data at different times, but most started around Jan. 1, 2015, and ended around Sept. 1, 2016.) USA TODAY then looked at the same time period in 2012.

USA TODAY also looked at voter registration data in the two states that provide detailed data on Hispanic voter registrations: Florida and North Carolina.

Mark Hugo Lopez, director of Hispanic research at the Pew Research Center, analyzed USA TODAY's findings and described them as a "good barometer we should be using" for measuring Hispanic voter registrations given the limited data available. He said some Hispanics are definitely registering specifically to oppose Trump, but the overall numbers show that Hispanic voting numbers would have risen with or without Trump as the Republican nominee.

"It looks like this year is no different in terms of the growth of the number of Hispanic registered voters," he said.

Here are some of the findings:

The 50 counties analyzed represent the fastest-growing portions of those states and are driving most of the voter registration increases. Voter rolls in the most heavily Hispanic counties grew faster than the state average in 9 out of 10 states, both in 2016 and 2012.
The voter registration increases in the most heavily Hispanic counties drove Democratic gains in most of the states, even if the states overall are trending Republican. In Iowa, Republicans have added 14,000 more registered voters than Democrats leading up to the election. But in the five counties examined, Democrats outgained Republicans 2-to-1.
In some cases, the state would have seen a decline in total voters from 2012 to 2016 if not for the heavily-Hispanic counties. In Wisconsin, the state would have lost 3,606 voters, if not for the increases in Milwaukee, Dane, Racine, Kenosha and Brown counties.
In some states, Hispanic voter growth has slowed. In North Carolina, Hispanic voter registration overall increased 23.3% during the 2016 election, compared to 25.2% in 2012.
Iowa was the only state during the 2016 election cycle to lose both voters across the state and in the counties with the most Hispanics.
The states with the largest voter increases in the most heavily-Hispanic counties were Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada and North Carolina.

In a nutshell... Many people expected to see massive increases in Hispanic voter registrations to vote against Trump. It isn't happening.

[Thoth]

Damn Mexicans are too lazy to even vote.

[Sava]

Analyzing how Hispanics are registering to vote across different states is difficult. The secretaries of state of most states publish the total number of people who have registered to vote and many break that down by party affiliation, but very few provide data that identifies Hispanic voters.

To get around those limitations, USA TODAY used data from the Pew Research Center to identify the five counties with the largest population of Hispanics in each of 10 swing states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

The analysis compared voter registration data from election officials in each state from the beginning of 2015 through the end of the summer of 2016. (States report voter registration data at different times, but most started around Jan. 1, 2015, and ended around Sept. 1, 2016.) USA TODAY then looked at the same time period in 2012.

seems like they're making a lot of leaps in logic with limited data

[Elok]

An interesting story in USA Today...

In a nutshell... Many people expected to see massive increases in Hispanic voter registrations to vote against Trump. It isn't happening.

Well, why would it? If a Latino is voting, he's here already, and thus has no personal reason to care about the wall itself, even ignoring the facts that the stupid thing will never be built and it wouldn't do anything anyway (since most illegals came here legally and simply overstayed their visas). The wall-talk does represent his general animosity towards Hispanics, but that's a reason for existing Hispanic voters to oppose him, not an incentive for otherwise apathetic Hispanics to register right now. Oh noes, a pack of idiots want to spend billions or trillions doing something totally useless because they hate me!

Now, I understand Muslims are quite active for the Dems this cycle, which makes more sense since they're more vulnerable and his agitation against them could easily translate into outright oppression. But they're more vulnerable in part because there just aren't all that many of them, so their involvement is less significant.

[Giancarlo]

seems like they're making a lot of leaps in logic with limited data

This is true.

I have seen other articles in Florida and even Texas showing that there have been significant increases in registration. And the voting bloc as a whole is still significant.

I am not buying that article. Too many extrapolations on inadequate data.

And those already registered to vote will turn out in big numbers.

[Giancarlo]

By the way, Trump only leads by 4% in Texas. While Latinos there tend to be a little more conservative, Hillary leads by a huge margin among the voting bloc.

It isn't about registration, but rather turn out.

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2016/09/02/new-poll-results-americas-voiceld-2016-national-latino-voter-survey/

This poll showed Latinos are actually more likely to vote in this election than the last one.

That article Ming post did show that Latinos will be 12% of the electorate this election as compared to 10% in 2012, but I think it could be even bigger than we think.