UK General Election thread

[regexcellent]

I don't know about you but when someone tells me a party "won an election" I take that to mean said party is actually running the government.

[C0ckney]

Unless MPs switch parties isn't a majority immune from a vote of no confidence and other election triggers?

it's still possible, but it's more difficult now to force an early election.

[Ben Kenobi]

it may end up looking a bit like john major's government.

Or perhaps more like the Iron Lady's.

[kentonio]

Governments in Britain governing with single digit majorities are extremely vulnerable to votes of no confidence, especially when they try and enact policy that is highly controversial. Suddenly those conservative MP's in vulnerable seats start rebelling, and the government has to look for other parties to carry their votes. An early election is by no means unlikely if as I say the Tories try and enact some particularly hard hitting legislation.

Here's a list of modern era single digit majorities and how long those governments lasted..

1950 - Labour majority of 5, Time in office: 15 months
1964 - Labour majority of 4, Time in office: 18 months
1974 - Labour majority of 3, Time in office: Full Term

[Ben Kenobi]

I don't know about you but when someone tells me a party "won an election" I take that to mean said party is actually running the government

We'll see. I think longterm the excellent result for UKIP will be the most significant feature of this election. I might be wrong. Perhaps they'll implode in a shocking development without Farage. We shall see.

[Ben Kenobi]

Here's a list of modern era single digit majorities and how long those governments lasted..

If you have to go back to 1964 to prove your case, I think we're on solid ground.

[Hauldren Collider]

It's not single digit if you include Ireland though. Wouldn't the DUP and UUP presumably vote with the tories? That's another 10 seats.

[Ben Kenobi]

It's not single digit if you include Ireland though. Wouldn't the DUP and UUP presumably vote with the tories?

Nor are they in coalition with Lib Dem anymore. There were many predictions that the marriage wouldn't last and it lasted 5 years.

[kentonio]

If you have to go back to 1964 to prove your case, I think we're on solid ground.

Those are the only recent examples of it happening you dip****. Small majorities actually matter in British politics, governments can and have fallen if they try and overstretch themselves without the political strength to do so.

It's not single digit if you include Ireland though. Wouldn't the DUP and UUP presumably vote with the tories?

Not always, it depends on the issue. It's worth also remembering that the Tory party is quite a broad tent, especially since the Lib Dems imploded. They're also a party that has no qualms at all about rebelling against the leadership when it chooses. The danger for Cameron is that he ends up having to do deals with UKIP, which then drives policy right and risks both annoying the moderate majority and cementing the narrative that UKIP and the Tories are in bed together, which would do real damage to them at the next election.

[Ben Kenobi]

Those are the only recent examples of it happening you dip****. Small majorities actually matter in British politics, governments can and have fallen if they try and overstretch themselves without the political strength to do so.

So because Labor was incompetent in the 50s, we should take it to automatically apply to Conservatives in modern times today?

Also, 1/3rd of your examples actually did last a full term. So I will cite, "small sample size".

which would do real damage to them at the next election.

It is interesting to see a 'conservative' show his true colors. Shouldn't you be celebrating the dominant victory of your party?

[kentonio]

Although actually its a 12 seat parliamentary majority, so he has a bit more breathing room.

[korn469]

I think this election is another example of how the majority of most democracies are not actually democratic. About a quarter of the registered voters and less than 18% of the total population vote now ensures the Conservatives have full control over the government.

[giblets]

I think this election is another example of how the majority of most democracies are not actually democratic. About a quarter of the registered voters and less than 18% of the total population vote now ensures the Conservatives have full control over the government.

UKIP + Conservatives is nearly half the popular vote, so it's possible the more moderate Conservatives are in line with what the average person supports.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Although actually its a 12 seat parliamentary majority, so he has a bit more breathing room.

And no need to fear, Francis Urquhart and Tim Stamper will make sure the backbenchers vote correctly

[Bugs ****ing Bunny]

Now beginneth Cameron's Tricky Second Term.

1- He'll be heading a government which, having no coalition partners, actually has a significantly smaller majority than the preceding 5 years.

2- He's spent the last 5 years blaming everything that's wrong on the previous Labour government. It gets harder to get away with that in a second term.

3- He's committed to a referendum on the EU, and if there's one issue that really hurts the Tories it's EU membership. The only way Cameron can really win that one is by negotiating serious concessions from the rest of the EU AND win a referendum to stay in on those terms. Anything else risks splitting the party between the Pro-Business/EU wing and the Little Englanders.

4- He could easily face another nail-biting Scottish referendum, and he can't give them any more concessions without seriously alienating his English heartland.

5- He has promised smaller government. However there are nearly 200 more sitting in the House of Lords than there were in 2001, and it just keeps growing because there's no way to get rid of the ****ers. And he can't reduce the number of Scottish, Welsh or Ulster constituencies without further inflaming Nationalistic issues that could split Britain. And if he does this by reducing the number of constituencies in England instead, then the English (already getting the crappiest end of the stick on this issue) are going to be further pissed off and either come round to the notion of PR or give him a kicking at the next election.

The next election, just like 1997, may not be influenced by the economy at all. It's going to be interesting.