Ebola outbreak in West Africa

[Sava]

still applies:

[lightblue]

Ebola has a R0 of like 1.5-2ish. Whilst it is a scary disease it is pretty pisspoor at spreading itself. A measles epidemic in an area with few vaccinations is likely to kill far more (R0 of 12-18).

I would imagine that without the funeral rites practised in certain areas of Africa the R0 of Ebola is 1 or below.

[Ben Kenobi]

Ebola has a R0 of like 1.5-2ish. Whilst it is a scary disease it is pretty pisspoor at spreading itself. A measles epidemic in an area with few vaccinations is likely to kill far more (R0 of 12-18).

I would imagine that without the funeral rites practised in certain areas of Africa the R0 of Ebola is 1 or below.

We'll see. There's also far more contacts per day in the US and the travel distances are much more massive than in Liberia. So while the R0 might be smaller, you'd need a larger spread factor. That's the big thing there. It's not so much the R0, but the distance from each wave.

[Ben Kenobi]

YOU'RE NOT GOING TO GET EBOLA (unfortunately) SO SHUT THE **** UP ABOUT IT. We didn't all die of ****ing swine flu either.

Yeah flu at it's worst was what, a 2 percent chance of dying as opposed to a 60-70 percent chance? Yeah Ebola is totally just like the flu.

[lightblue]

I think the mortality rate for the 1918 pandemic was more like 10-20% though there were obviously other factors at work (malnutrition, no antibiotics to fight of secondary infections etc.).

[Ben Kenobi]

The influenza virus had a profound virulence, with a mortality rate at 2.5%

https://virus.stanford.edu/uda/

[lightblue]

It is a bit confusing, but I think that Stanford source has its terminology mixed up. The case fatality rate was about 2.5%. However the total number of deaths is estimated at 50-100 million (including from secondary infections, mainly pneumonia) and approx 500 million people were infected, giving a mortality rate of 10-20%.

http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/1/pdfs/05-0979.pdf

[regexcellent]

Yeah flu at it's worst was what, a 2 percent chance of dying as opposed to a 60-70 percent chance? Yeah Ebola is totally just like the flu.

PAME has a ~100% chance of killing you. What's your point? You are not going to get ebola. SHUT THE FUCK UP.

[Ben Kenobi]

It is a bit confusing, but I think that Stanford source has its terminology mixed up. The case fatality rate was about 2.5%. However the total number of deaths is estimated at 50-100 million (including from secondary infections, mainly pneumonia) and approx 500 million people were infected, giving a mortality rate of 10-20%.

Not confusing at all. Actual case mortality is 2.5 percent. They can estimate all they want, but the actual facts support 2.5 percent mortality.

[Ben Kenobi]

You are not going to get ebola. SHUT THE **** UP.

Who died and made you king?

[regexcellent]

Who died and made you king?

There are maybe two or three posters on this entire ****ing forum who don't find you completely insufferable.

[Ben Kenobi]

http://austin.culturemap.com/news/city-life/10-04-14-patient-admitted-to-austin-hospital-for-ebola-like-symptoms/

What was that, Reg?

[AAAAAAAAH!]

According to the Texas Department of State Health and Human Services, the patient's lab results and condition, determined that the patient does not meet the risk profile for Ebola testing.

[Ben Kenobi]

We'll see. We'll know more by Monday in the second wave to see who gets sick and ends up infected.

[ricketyclik]

Why this: (z instead of s)

The use of z in words like civilization was historically acceptable (and even favoured) in England, but not to the point of disallowing s. It was only when the US decided on z that England introduced the s policy.