U.S. Economy Shrinks in 4th Qtr

[Kidlicious]

I think Ben is referring more to GDP growth vis-a-vis rate of inflation, or something along those lines.

The Phillip's Curve? No one pays attention to that anymore. Well, no one but BK maybe.

[Ben Kenobi]

There's nothing wrong with stable prices. You're loony.

Right, a generation without any measureable economic growth is a positive.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Phillip's curve is inverse relation between unemployment and inflation. I'm talking about (or assuming Ben is talking about) overall GDP growth compared to inflation, i.e. "real" growth.

[Ben Kenobi]

I think Ben is referring more to GDP growth vis-a-vis rate of inflation, or something along those lines.

If you take inflation into account, Equities are worth much less today than in 2000. If we place this overtop the Great Depression, we are in 1942 thereabouts.

[Kidlicious]

Right, a generation without any measureable economic growth is a positive.

At least we had stable prices. You obviously don't understand the problems of price instability.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Right, a generation without any measureable economic growth is a positive.

Yes, because we really, truly are stagnant. I'm posting this from a text browser over a 14.4k baud modem on an 80286 based computer that cost me over $2k, and I still use my $1500 a month cell phone with the 10lb battery.

"no measurable economic growth" sounds like you're reading austrian economics tinfoil hat stuff.

[Ben Kenobi]

At least we had stable prices. You obviously don't understand the problems of price instability.

Euhm - the economy is supposed to grow. Right now, it's not, and it's not been growing for quite some time now.

[Kidlicious]

If you take inflation into account, Equities are worth much less today than in 2000. If we place this overtop the Great Depression, we are in 1942 thereabouts.

No

[Ben Kenobi]

Yes, because we really, truly are stagnant. I'm posting this from a text browser over a 14.4k baud modem on an 80286 based computer that cost me over $2k, and I still use my $1500 a month cell phone with the 10lb battery.

"no measurable economic growth" sounds like you're reading austrian economics tinfoil hat stuff.

I'm just sayin'. If you were in the DOW in 2000, you've lost a substantial sum since. That's not supposed to happen. In a healthy economy, you'd see growth that outpaces inflation. Not only do we not see growth outpace inflation - things have actually gotten worse since then.

[Ben Kenobi]

No

Yes, truth hurts. Inflation-adjusted DOW is the figure you want, and we've not seen any growth in that since I was a teenager.

[MichaeltheGreat]

If you take inflation into account, Equities are worth much less today than in 2000. If we place this overtop the Great Depression, we are in 1942 thereabouts.

And valuation of equities based on inflation is, frankly, insane. It only has relevance in a long-term, static, buy and hold perspective, which may be what grandpa's broker told grandpa, but that doesn't reflect the dynamics of the current marketplace.

Not to mention there's a million ways to slice those numbers (to, what a coincidence, get the values you want.)

Maybe you can explain for us less illuminated types, how Google, IBM, WalMart, Apple and Exxon-Mobile were doing in 1942?

[Kidlicious]

Euhm - the economy is supposed to grow. Right now, it's not, and it's not been growing for quite some time now.

It's growing at just below the historical average which is great considering what we just went through. But keep telling stories. Maybe someone will believe you.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Yes, truth hurts. Inflation-adjusted DOW is the figure you want, and we've not seen any growth in that since I was a teenager.

Inflation adjusted DJIA is like tits on a bull.

[Kidlicious]

Yes, truth hurts. Inflation-adjusted DOW is the figure you want, and we've not seen any growth in that since I was a teenager.

I was refering to your reference to 1942. Do you know what happened to the stock market between 1943 and 1950 or so?

[Ben Kenobi]

And valuation of equities based on inflation is, frankly, insane. It only has relevance in a long-term, static, buy and hold perspective, which may be what grandpa's broker told grandpa, but that doesn't reflect the dynamics of the current marketplace.

This is a significant admission that we aren't in an expanding economy.

Not to mention there's a million ways to slice those numbers (to, what a coincidence, get the values you want.)

Not really. This is just going by the official numbers. I could quote some Austrians who use pre-Clinton revisions. It's not pretty. There's a reason Clinton changed it

Maybe you can explain for us less illuminated types, how Google, IBM, WalMart, Apple and Exxon-Mobile were doing in 1942?

Standard Oil was sucking ass then?