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  • U.S. Economy Shrinks in 4th Qtr

    After four years of "It's Bush's fault", President Obama finds something else to blame.

    The White House on Wednesday blamed the devastation from Superstorm Sandy and disruptions from deep scheduled spending cuts for the surprise 0.1 percent drop in gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2012. It was the first such contraction since early 2009 when the country was in the grips of the Great Recession.

    The chairman of President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, Alan Krueger, said in a post on the official White House blog that the bad news came “amid signs that Hurricane Sandy disrupted economic activity and Federal defense spending declined precipitously, likely due to uncertainty stemming from the sequester.”

    That law will slash some $1.2 trillion in spending over 10 years by targeting domestic and defense programs with across-the-board cuts. Obama and Republicans in Congress have been starkly at odds over how best to replace the sequester with less disruptive debt-battling measures. The president has said spending cuts must be paired with tax revenue increases, something Republicans oppose.

    Meanwhile, Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell renewed the GOP’s calls for spending cuts on the Senate floor on Wednesday, urging a look into “the dark corners that often evade real scrutiny” on a mission to make government programs more efficient and scrap those that don’t work.

    “We need to root out waste, which will serve as the first real test of Democrats’ seriousness in this debate,” he said.

    McConnell added, “Why is the federal government funding Chinese studies on pig manure, and research into the smoking habits of Jordanian college students and reality TV shows in India? Are Democrats prepared to cut this kind of waste?"

    Krueger took pains to defend Obama’s first-term economic record, stressing that “over the last fourteen quarters, the economy has expanded 7.5 percent overall,” and touting private sector growth, investment and consumption. Over all of 2012, the economy grew 2.2 percent. And economists largely agreed with the White House's take on the impact of Sandy and spending cuts.

    “Federal defense purchases declined at an annual rate of 22.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012, the largest quarterly decline in 40 years,” Krueger said. “The decline in government spending across all levels reduced real GDP by 1.33 percentage points in the quarter.”

    Sandy also played a role, Krueger said, notably by disrupting trade, “although a precise estimate of the effect of the hurricane on GDP is not available.”

    Krueger also warned Congress against dealing the economy any “self-inflicted wounds.”


    I know, I know...economist agree with him on this one, but still...has Obama ever done anything other than blame someone/something else for the economy?
    "I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003

  • #2
    Originally posted by PLATO View Post
    I know, I know...economist agree with him on this one, but still...has [a president] ever done anything other than blame someone/something else for the economy?
    Fixed I don't know whether it's any worse than usual, but to me this is just usual politics.
    <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
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    • #3
      Originally posted by snoopy369 View Post
      Fixed I don't know whether it's any worse than usual, but to me this is just usual politics.
      Don't contradict my whining with facts please...
      "I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003

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      • #4
        Originally posted by PLATO View Post
        After four years of "It's Bush's fault", President Obama finds something else to blame.








        I know, I know...economist agree with him on this one, but still...has Obama ever done anything other than blame someone/something else for the economy?

        He is not doing that bad, at least comparing to some others... check out the British coalition "success" which is not persueing the policies like Obama, but more in line what the American right would like, right now threatening tripple-dip recession, with no end in sight.
        Socrates: "Good is That at which all things aim, If one knows what the good is, one will always do what is good." Brian: "Romanes eunt domus"
        GW 2013: "and juistin bieber is gay with me and we have 10 kids we live in u.s.a in the white house with obama"

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        • #5
          It's pretty obvious that this was due to the disaster in NY and NJ.
          Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.

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          • #6
            From a short term perspective, increasing government spending will stimulate the economy...no doubt. Cutting spending will equally cause some contraction as well. Once again...that is short term. However, Obama's policies will have very negative long term effects imo. I am not familiar enough with what British policy is to say much on that subject...
            "I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Dinner View Post
              It's pretty obvious that this was due to the disaster in NY and NJ.
              Yes...there always does seem to be a reason why its not his fault, doesn't it?
              "I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003

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              • #8
                Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
                located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012
                (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the
                Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

                The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on
                source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 4
                and the "Comparisons of Revisions to GDP" on page 5). The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter,
                based on more complete data, will be released on February 28, 2013.

                The decrease in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from
                private inventory investment, federal government spending, and exports that were partly offset by
                positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment,
                and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

                The downturn in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected downturns in private
                inventory investment, in federal government spending, in exports, and in state and local government
                spending that were partly offset by an upturn in nonresidential fixed investment, a larger decrease in
                imports, and an acceleration in PCE.

                Final sales of computers added 0.15 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP
                after adding 0.11 percentage point to the third-quarter change. Motor vehicle output added 0.04
                percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.25 percentage point from
                the third-quarter change.




                No mention of Sandy in the official U.S. Dept of Commerce release....

                ***********************************

                Hurricane Katrina August 29, 2005

                From wikipedia:

                It was the costliest natural disaster, as well as one of the five deadliest hurricanes, in the history of the United States
                From article in USA Today in October 2005:

                WASHINGTON (Reuters) — The economy shook off headwinds from hurricanes Katrina and Rita to grow at a faster-than-expected 3.8% annual rate in the third quarter, a Commerce Department report showed Friday.


                Yes...clearly it was Hurricane Sandy's fault.
                "I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by PLATO View Post
                  Yes...there always does seem to be a reason why its not his fault, doesn't it?
                  Dude, now you're just trying to hard. You're trying to compare the economic output of the ****hole of New Orleans vs NYC and northern NJ? Really, you don't understand how one place is way more important than the other?
                  Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Dinner View Post
                    Dude, now you're just trying to hard. You're trying to compare the economic output of the ****hole of New Orleans vs NYC and northern NJ? Really, you don't understand how one place is way more important than the other?
                    From wikipedia:

                    It was the costliest natural disaster, as well as one of the five deadliest hurricanes, in the history of the United States
                    Not to mention that the gulf region is by far the largest portion of the country affecting the energy sector. Let's face it...New York area is mainly white collar and lost very little infrastructure of economic import...the gulf on the other hand was not back up and running in a few days.
                    "I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by PLATO View Post
                      Don't contradict my whining with facts please...
                      A lot of the defense cuts which dragged the economy were in anticipation of sequestration. So we can always blame Congress if that feels better? And it would be true in significant part.
                      When all else fails, blame brown people. | Hire a teen, while they still know it all. | Trump-Palin 2016. "You're fired." "I quit."

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat View Post
                        A lot of the cuts were in anticipation of sequestration. So we can always blame Congress if that feels better? And it would be true in significant part.


                        I am not sure that Congress was the only entity negotiating in that debate. Hmmm...who was the other one? Oh! That's right! Obama was being just as immovable as Congress!

                        I will say that Obama did a masterful job there if he was able to convince a smart guy like you that it was just Congress' fault.
                        "I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003

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                        • #13
                          Hah. Won one bet already. So much for the 'recovery'! Double dip, here we come!
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                          • #14
                            I'm guessing .1% is well within the margin of error and it's quite possible that GDP didn't actually decrease in the previous quarter.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by OneFootInTheGrave View Post
                              He is not doing that bad, at least comparing to some others...
                              He's quite crap compared to American history: http://www.clevelandfed.org/research...012/wp1214.pdf
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