Who is going to win?

[Ben Kenobi]

Man, that's quality sig material.

[DaShi]

Romney might win if Republicans win over enough rapist voters.

Interesting, it has been an untapped demographic for some time. But I assumed that was because most of them lost their voting rights. However, perhaps the republicans know something.

[MrFun]

Interesting, it has been an untapped demographic for some time. But I assumed that was because most of them lost their voting rights. However, perhaps the republicans know something.

Unconvicted rapists who have not yet been caught, arrested, and brought to justice.

[Hauldren Collider]

Romney is up seven points with people who have already voted, which is 15% of registered voters:

Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney's 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.

This is despite a Herculean push by the Democrats to get out the early vote. Not a good sign for Obama

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158420/registered-voters-already-cast-ballots.aspx

[Jon Miller]

Isn't Gallup the one with abnormally high Romney leads always?

Why should we believe this sample anymore than we should believe the others?

JM

[Jon Miller]

Isn't Gallup the one with abnormally high Romney leads always?

Why should we believe this sample anymore than we should believe the others?

JM

[Dinner]

Isn't Gallup the one with abnormally high Romney leads always?

Gallup and Rasmussen both and 538 has knocked them down in the weighting because they're always so far off the averages of all the other polls (they produce a lot of outliers) and worse their methodology always skews it towards the older respondents which tends to skew it Republican. The theory is they call only land lines and tend to do a lot of polling during the day so old folks are what they get since that's who is home during the day and who still has a land line.

[Hauldren Collider]

OIAW. Gallup does interviews in spanish and also calls cell phones, as does Rasmussen. They are industry leaders in terms of polling methodology.

[Hauldren Collider]

Isn't Gallup the one with abnormally high Romney leads always?

Why should we believe this sample anymore than we should believe the others?

JM

It's of registered voters, not likely voters.

[giblets]

Romney is up seven points with people who have already voted, which is 15% of registered voters:

Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney's 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.

This is despite a Herculean push by the Democrats to get out the early vote. Not a good sign for Obama

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158420/re...t-ballots.aspx

I will never take Gallup seriously again after this election

[Hauldren Collider]

Unless Romney wins?

[giblets]

Yeah, if Romney won by a six or seven point margin they'd turn out to be an accurate pollster. I seriously doubt that will happen.

[regexcellent]

Rasmussen was the most accurate pollster four years ago due to its sophisticated model for likely voters. Gallup has a very strong and very long reputation as a pollster, going back to the '40s. It is just as likely, if not more likely, that Gallup and Rasmussen are right and everyone else is wrong as the other way around.

Early voting is definitely going to have a different result than regular voting, but I'm shocked that the Republicans are leading in it; I thought the democrats would be leading.

[Jon Miller]

Why would you think that the Republicans are leading it?

JM

[Jon Miller]

Why would you think that the Republicans are leading it?

JM