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Who is going to win?

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  • #76
    Am I remembering correctly that last election the polls didn't predict Obama to win?
    I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
    - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

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    • #77
      Originally posted by Kidicious View Post
      Am I remembering correctly that last election the polls didn't predict Obama to win?
      No. Perhaps on a few days or something, but near the election it was just a matter of how much Obama would win by.
      <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
      I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.

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      • #78
        Nate Silver, whose aggregation of polls was uncontroversial in 2008, gave Obama a 98.7% chance of winning the electoral college in his final prediction.

        McCain had a narrow lead a couple of times, but after mid-September, McCain's chances never got above 20%.
        "You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran

        Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005

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        • #79
          Originally posted by Tupac Shakur View Post
          I've just skipped over the last couple pages of bull**** and will now address the original question. The race is a dead heat (just as the economic models predicted) and I think Mark McKinnon is right to suggest there's a very real chance that Romney could lose in the electoral college while winning the popular vote. Romney's lead nationally hasn't translated into an advantage over Obama in swing-state polls, which could be the result of party ID assumptions that turn out to be incorrect on election day but could also be the result of the Obama campaign's superior ground game. I suspect Romney's advantage with independents and the marked reduction in the Democrat/Republican turnout gap from 2008 evident in national polling will push him over the top in enough key swing states to win the electoral college (despite such movement not showing up in the state polls so far), but I definitely could be wrong about that.
          Yep, this.
          "You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran

          Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005

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          • #80
            Oh, except that I went with an Obama victory in the electoral college, all things considered. I suspect we'll see a tie in the popular vote, and an electoral college win for Obama by holding Ohio.
            "You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran

            Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005

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            • #81
              Originally posted by Ben Kenobi View Post
              The sex of one's chosen partner in marriage is relevant, the colour of ones skin is not.
              Hooray for arbitrary standards! next we'll keep left handed people from marrying.

              edit: also, this link is mildly interesting.
              Last edited by self biased; October 28, 2012, 11:10.
              I wasn't born with enough middle fingers.
              [Brandon Roderick? You mean Brock's Toadie?][Hanged from Yggdrasil]

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              • #82
                Originally posted by Jaguar View Post
                Oh, except that I went with an Obama victory in the electoral college, all things considered. I suspect we'll see a tie in the popular vote, and an electoral college win for Obama by holding Ohio.
                This scenario could actually be a lot of fun. For example, can you imagine Democrats pointing to Bush v. Gore as reason to stop the inevitable Romney recount requests in Ohio?

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                • #83
                  I don't think opportunities for trolling would be greater under that scenario than a Romney victory.
                  If there is no sound in space, how come you can hear the lasers?
                  ){ :|:& };:

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                  • #84
                    How sad.
                    “As a lifelong member of the Columbia Business School community, I adhere to the principles of truth, integrity, and respect. I will not lie, cheat, steal, or tolerate those who do.”
                    "Capitalism ho!"

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                    • #85
                      Hooray for arbitrary standards! next we'll keep left handed people from marrying.
                      If the sex of one's chosen partner were arbitrary, gay marriage proponents wouldn't be insisting that they want to marry someone who isn't of the same sex as them. Clearly sex is VERY relevant to whom one chooses to marry.
                      Scouse Git (2) La Fayette Adam Smith Solomwi and Loinburger will not be forgotten.
                      "Remember the night we broke the windows in this old house? This is what I wished for..."
                      2015 APOLYTON FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPION!

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                      • #86


                        You're so special.
                        "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
                        Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

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                        • #87
                          Logic, *****es.
                          Scouse Git (2) La Fayette Adam Smith Solomwi and Loinburger will not be forgotten.
                          "Remember the night we broke the windows in this old house? This is what I wished for..."
                          2015 APOLYTON FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPION!

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                          • #88
                            Romney might win if Republicans win over enough rapist voters.
                            A lot of Republicans are not racist, but a lot of racists are Republican.

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                            • #89
                              Did you mean that, or did you mean racist?

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                              • #90
                                I meant "rapist," given how some Republicans have spoken out about how rape is a gift from God for women.
                                A lot of Republicans are not racist, but a lot of racists are Republican.

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