Am I remembering correctly that last election the polls didn't predict Obama to win?
Announcement
Collapse
No announcement yet.
Who is going to win?
Collapse
X
-
Originally posted by Kidicious View PostAm I remembering correctly that last election the polls didn't predict Obama to win?<Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.
Comment
-
Nate Silver, whose aggregation of polls was uncontroversial in 2008, gave Obama a 98.7% chance of winning the electoral college in his final prediction.
McCain had a narrow lead a couple of times, but after mid-September, McCain's chances never got above 20%."You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran
Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005
Comment
-
Originally posted by Tupac Shakur View PostI've just skipped over the last couple pages of bull**** and will now address the original question. The race is a dead heat (just as the economic models predicted) and I think Mark McKinnon is right to suggest there's a very real chance that Romney could lose in the electoral college while winning the popular vote. Romney's lead nationally hasn't translated into an advantage over Obama in swing-state polls, which could be the result of party ID assumptions that turn out to be incorrect on election day but could also be the result of the Obama campaign's superior ground game. I suspect Romney's advantage with independents and the marked reduction in the Democrat/Republican turnout gap from 2008 evident in national polling will push him over the top in enough key swing states to win the electoral college (despite such movement not showing up in the state polls so far), but I definitely could be wrong about that."You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran
Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005
Comment
-
Oh, except that I went with an Obama victory in the electoral college, all things considered. I suspect we'll see a tie in the popular vote, and an electoral college win for Obama by holding Ohio."You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran
Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005
Comment
-
Last edited by self biased; October 28, 2012, 11:10.I wasn't born with enough middle fingers.
[Brandon Roderick? You mean Brock's Toadie?][Hanged from Yggdrasil]
Comment
-
Originally posted by Jaguar View PostOh, except that I went with an Obama victory in the electoral college, all things considered. I suspect we'll see a tie in the popular vote, and an electoral college win for Obama by holding Ohio.
Comment
-
Hooray for arbitrary standards! next we'll keep left handed people from marrying.Scouse Git (2) La Fayette Adam Smith Solomwi and Loinburger will not be forgotten.
"Remember the night we broke the windows in this old house? This is what I wished for..."
2015 APOLYTON FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPION!
Comment
-
Logic, *****es.Scouse Git (2) La Fayette Adam Smith Solomwi and Loinburger will not be forgotten.
"Remember the night we broke the windows in this old house? This is what I wished for..."
2015 APOLYTON FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPION!
Comment
Comment