Also, the economy would collapse.

[rah]

In another thread that shall not be named.

regexelent said

I remember asking a friend from San Antonio what would happen if all of the illegal immigrants in Texas were magically rounded up and deported all at once and he said "San Antonio would lose half of its population, for starters."

Guynemer responded

Also, the economy would ****ing collapse.

So this started me thinking. (Yes, crazy, I know) But let's go through a few steps.

One of the big reasons is that most Americans wouldn't do the jobs that immigrants do. I saw a story where the person supported more liberal laws governing this by saying that they put ads in the paper for some of these jobs and no legal citizen ever replied, not one. So illegal immigrants were not taking jobs away from americans, just jobs no one wants. (which is a bit funny since using one job as the basis when there are thousands of different jobs, but for the sake of argument I'll ignore it)

OK, so we kick out all the illegals (must assume that this is actually possible)
Do all those jobs dissappear? (i'll even concede that a small part do)

So who's going to do these jobs? According to our earlier experts, no one will apply.

Let's assume that's true. Oh how oh how will we get people to do these back breaking manual jobs or those dirty disgusting ones. How about pay them more. Highway workers, garbage men and many other hard or disgusting jobs are not all filled with imigrants, they just pay enough that people are willing to do them. As you raise the pay you will eventually find those that will do the job.

Now all those farmers say they couldn't make any money if they had to pay real wages to get their crops in. Or couldn't be competive doing lawn services, or offering cleaning services. Would that be actually true if you took that advantage away from everyone. (take out those products where there is a global impact)

So if everyone is in the same boat, it just means that prices will have to rise to offset the higher pay.

All those extra jobs filled by americans would lower the unemployement rate and increase demand for consumer goods. There would be less people for the Government to support.

Yes, quite simplistic but what the heck.


Now I"m not proposing or support that we do this.

I just wanted to the opinion of the wide variety of posters here.

[The Mad Monk]

We had this experiment already, back in the 30s. Steinback, among others, wrote extensively on it.

[Al B. Sure!]

If it's possible, I think in the long-term, US agriculture would shift to being more capital intensive. With the higher wages expected of American-born fruit pickers, capital will be comparably cheaper and change the production functions in favor of increase capital usage.

[Ben Kenobi]

Well, seeing as I'm stealing a job from an American, that's not necessarily so, rah.

You're assuming that there are more people than jobs, and I'm not convinced that this is the case. The problem isn't so much that legals are unwilling to work, but the fact that the system discourages employers from hiring legals in the first place.

Even if they paid them exactly the same, someone who is legal is going to cost more to hire.

The best way to fix this is to get rid of the extra taxes and reporting duties imposed upon employers. This way legal employees are not more expensive to hire than illegal ones.

[Dinner]

Americans would do these jobs but they'd demand significantly higher wages. The whole reason companies try to attract illegal workers (even advertise help wanted ads in places like Guatemala) is because they want a cheap and easily exploitable work force. In 1980 the average butcher at a meat packing plant was unionized, made an inflation adjusted $20 per hour with health and dental insurance plus if they got injured on the job they got worker's comp. Fast forward to today, the unions are dead and broken, wages are down to ~$8 per hour, there is no insurance offered, virtually all the meat packing plants are filled with nothing but illegals, and if an illegal gets injured on the job they just throw his ass out the door and hire another illegal to take his place.

Yeah, Americans don't won't to work in conditions like that but if they restored the conditions of 1980 then you'd find, once again, the work force in these meat packing plants would be 100% American citizens. Yes, meat prices would have to rise or companies would have to accept fewer profits or the business would have to become more capital intensive so that greater automation could occur (thus employing fewer expensive workers). It's all a trade off and in the US we've decided workers are disposable garbage because we want the cheapest prices and highest profits, period.

[Dinner]

If it's possible, I think in the long-term, US agriculture would shift to being more capital intensive. With the higher wages expected of American-born fruit pickers, capital will be comparably cheaper and change the production functions in favor of increase capital usage.

Exactly. US agriculture would start looking more like Australian agriculture where the high cost of labor means they automate EVERYTHING possible and even avoid certain crops which have to be hand picked (like strawberries) simply because it would cost to much. Could it be done? Certainly as Australia has already done it though the US has a huge pool of low skill workers who are willing to work for peanuts just to the south of us so businesses would prefer to go with the cheap and less capital intense route of hiring them rather than buying $1 million new pieces of equipment and having to replant orchards/fields so the equipment can be used effectively.

[Aeson]

There needs to be a distinction made between illegals and migrants. The apple orchards my dad manages or consults for use migrant workers on temporary visas during harvest and pruning season. There are some costs involved in getting the visas and providing transportation, but it's really not much in the grand scheme of things. The migrant workers who get these jobs actually prefer to live in Mexico for the off-season because the money they earn here goes so much further south of the border. They can make a very good wage in this case because it is based on how much work they do. They are paid by the bin, so the harder they work the more they get paid. A good picker could earn $25 to $30 per hour for example.

This means that a good worker can do a couple months work in the US, and earn enough to take care of their family for the rest of the year. It's a very stable work environment for most of them, as they will get the job year after year if they are a good worker. Much better than risking your life to cross the border and then being taken advantage of for the rest of your life.

If there were no illegals, I think you'd see a lot of the agricultural work shift to more of this type of model. Not because the wage (which turns out to be higher than many American workers earn), but because most American workers would not be able to do nearly as well even if they wanted to do the physically demanding work.

(Obamacare is going to wreck havoc with this model of labor though. Another reason why it's a stupid healthcare plan.)

[SlowwHand]

That illegals take jobs that citizens wouldn't is total bull****.

[regexcellent]

If they're willing to do it for less I say let em. Prices drop and it frees up my money to spend on other things like that new washing machine.

[Al B. Sure!]

That illegals take jobs that citizens wouldn't is total bull****.

It's not that they work jobs that Americans wouldn't want to do; they work jobs that Americans wouldn't want to do for what the Mexicans get paid to do it for.

At the minimum, you'd have to pay Americans minimum wage and their take home pay will be less due to tax withholding (plus business cost will be higher due to payroll tax). An illegal will be willing to do the work for less than minimum wage and get paid under the table so no withholding or payroll tax.

[SlowwHand]

They'd get at least minimum wage. Those that hire illegals need to be locked up. I sympathize more with illegals than those that hire them. You want to get started on social security running out? Illegal hiring plays a part in it.

[DaShi]

Then you must be pretty happy with Obama, if this is your issue.

[regexcellent]

The people that hire illegal immigrants are providing resources to them in a mutually beneficial arrangement. Wanting them to be locked up is way more harmful to them than wanting to crack down on the immigrants themselves.

[DaShi]

Um...yes, that's pretty obvious.

[KrazyHorse]

You want to get started on social security running out? Illegal hiring plays a part in it.

No. Low wage workers generally end up pulling way more out of SS than they put in. If illegals manage to avoid FICA (in fact, some of them do end up paying into it with no hope of collecting benefits) then in general they are still improving its fiscal situation.