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Speculation over why US crime stats are recording falls

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  • #31
    8. The baby boomers grew up. With birth rates peaking between 1957 and 1961, the proportion of men in the US in their late teens and early 20s was highest in the late 70s and early 80s. As time went on, the proportion of people at "criminal age" decreased.
    That this was number 8 shows that this article is ****
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    • #32
      Originally posted by C0ckney View Post
      wow, so close to 1/100 males in the US is locked up behind bars. that's an incredible incarceration rate.

      It's mostly minorities, if that makes you feel better (it probably shouldn't). It probably varies substantially by state (I know I say this of a lot of US statistics but it's true). For instance I'd bet California has a higher incarceration rate than say Oregon because of the three strikes you're out policy.
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      • #33
        Originally posted by Hauldren Collider View Post
        It's mostly minorities, if that makes you feel better (it probably shouldn't). It probably varies substantially by state (I know I say this of a lot of US statistics but it's true). For instance I'd bet California has a higher incarceration rate than say Oregon because of the three strikes you're out policy.
        Louisiana and Mississippi do appear to have high incarceration rates:
        http://www.publicagenda.org/charts/i...ion-rate-state

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        • #34
          It's definitely because Obama is now under constant surveillance.
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          • #35
            It proves my point, the number varies rather heavily. Incarceration rates are much higher in Louisiana than Maine, for instance.

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            • #36
              Originally posted by Hauldren Collider View Post
              It's mostly minorities, if that makes you feel better (it probably shouldn't). It probably varies substantially by state (I know I say this of a lot of US statistics but it's true). For instance I'd bet California has a higher incarceration rate than say Oregon because of the three strikes you're out policy.
              i'm sure there are many variations and subtleties within the rate but the rate itself is just incredible, when you compare it with other industrialised countries.
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              • #37
                Another chart from wikipedia:

                5% of black males are in prison

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                • #38
                  Originally posted by Oerdin View Post
                  I'm not sure where you got that graph but the FBI says "serious crimes" peaked by 1980 (probably in the late 70's but the graph doesn't show every year) and has been going down ever since. Please note crack wasn't big until the mid80's so your claims about crack are wrong.



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                  I'll get back to you. You, sir, said VIOLENT crimes, though
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                  • #39
                    What are the differences between violent crime and "serious crimes"? I'm guessing burglary isn't a violent crime.

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                    • #40
                      Originally posted by gribbler View Post
                      What are the differences between violent crime and "serious crimes"? I'm guessing burglary isn't a violent crime.
                      This is the chart for property crime:



                      That may be affecting Oerdin's point but Oerdin said VIOLENT crime, not property crimes.
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                      • #41
                        Here:



                        Property crimes peaked in 1980 at 5,353 reported property crimes per 100K people (which actually was not much more than the 5000+ throughout the late 80's til 1992).

                        VIOLENT crimes, however... hit 596.1 in 1980, went down a bit, then shot up to 757.5 by 1992; From 1986-1997, the violent crime rate was higher than 1980.


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                        "I have nothing against Wilson, but he's nowhere near the same calibre of QB as Flutie. Flutie threw for 5k+ yards in the CFL." -Ben Kenobi

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                        • #42
                          And before I enter the Apolyton Twilight Zone and everyone suddenly gets caught with a case of the revisionist stupids, let me repeat this:

                          Originally posted by Oerdin View Post
                          Crack didn't take off until the 80's but despite all the media coverage about gangs and drive by shootings violent crime in the 80's was lower then the 70's.
                          And from the OP article:

                          2. The fall in violent crime that began in the early 90s can be partly explained by the fall in demand for crack, says Prof Blumstein, co-author of The Crime Drop in America. Word got round about the dangers of crack use and - aided by aggressive policing - the gun violence associated with its supply decreased. The converse had happened in 1985, when the incarceration of dealers led to a spiral of violence, as younger and more reckless suppliers took their place.
                          "Flutie was better than Kelly, Elway, Esiason and Cunningham." - Ben Kenobi
                          "I have nothing against Wilson, but he's nowhere near the same calibre of QB as Flutie. Flutie threw for 5k+ yards in the CFL." -Ben Kenobi

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                          • #43
                            He confused "violent crime" with "serious crimes". Big deal. There's no need to be so anal about it...

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                            • #44
                              Originally posted by SlowwHand View Post
                              All crime, not just drug crimes.
                              I think most modern urban crime has a fundamental root in drugs. Not just the obvious stuff like dealers selling and killing each other and any other attendant gang violence plus addicts committing crimes... but the repercussions on those not directly participating in the drug trade are significant. Family and friends of dealers/addicts are affected in ways that would increase their proclivity to commit crimes. Even those simply living in the same blighted hood and taking after their surroundings would increase other forms of crime unrelated to the drug trade.
                              "Flutie was better than Kelly, Elway, Esiason and Cunningham." - Ben Kenobi
                              "I have nothing against Wilson, but he's nowhere near the same calibre of QB as Flutie. Flutie threw for 5k+ yards in the CFL." -Ben Kenobi

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                              • #45
                                Why are female criminals so rare? Are they immune to the effects of crack?

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