Barack Obama is secretly pro-Gadaffi - or he's a *****.

[Lonestar]

It's always fun to watch Europeans volunteer the US for military action. It sure as **** won't be the Europeans(except perhaps the French) that would be doing the heavy lifting for the no-fly zone.

Whoops! You need a strike carrier to do that! Whoops! The UK PM that wants the no-fly zone is the guy whose administration GOT RID of their strike carrier in the space of a month!

Libya is right across the Med from Europe. It's a European problem.

[BeBMan]

I formally apologize for posting my opinion on that topic

[Docfeelgood]

He's still the most vile and hateful person on this board since Ben Kenobi.

The pot calling the kettle black.......

[Lonestar]

In support of Chris’s post, let’s dig at this a bit more.

Via FT; once again, when our prostrate, financially starved, and materially deficient allies say this,

“We must not tolerate this regime using military force against its own people,” David Cameron, UK prime minister, said. “In that context I have asked the Ministry of Defence and the Chief of the Defence Staff to work with our allies on plans for a military no-fly zone.”

What they really mean is, “America, will you please do the heavy lifting? We will try to help with what little we have, but be a good sport.”

Want to make this an international effort? I won’t even start to discuss the UN route – as to get to that point is just too difficult and like Darfur, by the time someone can craft a deal, there will be no one to save. Anyway, really?

You can also think NATO, but I think that is off the table already.

… Recep Tayyip Erdogan, prime minister of Turkey, which has the second largest standing army in Nato, on Tuesday rejected intervention by the western alliance in Libya as “unthinkable”.

“Can you even consider such an absurdity?” Mr Erdogan said at a conference in Germany when asked about calls for Nato to intervene in Libya. “As Turkey, we’re against this, this can’t even be talked about, it’s unthinkable.”

Russia and France also opposed military action, with Paris saying humanitarian aid and cutting off Col Gaddafi’s funding sources should be the priorities.

Once again – NATO devolves to the lowest common denominator, even in their own back yard.

Coalition of the willing it is.

No serious person is talking about putting boots on the ground to engage in ground combat the Libyan rebel forces are more than willing to do – I think the most aggressive thing inside the “possible” bubble is a no-fly zone in Libya (NFZ-L) so Gaddafi’s air force cannot do their will on civilians and rebel forces.

Senators John McCain and Joseph Lieberman called last week for NATO countries to impose a no-fly zone over Libya to prevent air attacks by Mr Gaddafi on opponents who have wrested control of large parts of the country from him.

According to Colonel David Lapan, a Pentagon spokesman, US military planners are working on “various contingency plans … [and] repositioning forces to be able to provide for that flexibility once decisions are made”.

Let’s make some initial draft Planning Assumptions (PA) assuming that the CINC directs the establishment of a NFZ-L, here’s my first three:
- PA-1: The ENTERPRISE CSG and KEARSARGE ESG now in the Red Sea successfully transit Suez.
- PA-2: Tanker, AEW, and EW/ES aircraft have full basing rights in Sigonella, Souda Bay, at British bases in Cyprus.
- PA-3: ITA, ESP, and GBR are willing to contribute Navy and Air forces.

Let’s go to the chart, shall we? You can click it for a larger version.


Of those allies with the most pressing concern in the Mediterranean, we already know TUR, and FRA are non-players. GRC? Child please. There goes your most of your Med nations. Who else can help that isn’t already on holiday? GBR, ITA, ESP, with perhaps a dog or cat from other NATO air forces up north may help, but they have very limited reach and a very shallow bench. Even with the USAF, you cannot effect a sustained NFZ-L using ground based aircraft – even if you limited it to the Tripoli and Benghazi. Especially when you can bet a paycheck that ROE will require visual ID and sustained observation of suspect activity; no. Add to that the requirement for CSAR, and no again.

There is only one way to do this: Carrier Aviation. American Carrier Aviation.

One carrier cannot do this alone unless you have very low ambition and expect very little in the way of tasking. You should have one station to the east, one to the west. If you are talking big deck CVN – you really need two to keep one station for any length of time. To keep two stations, four – but if you can get some limited land-based air support for some cycles – maybe get by with three?

Let’s be realistic. We are not going to get four CVN or even three. Two then? I vote no. We’re tapped out.

If you had plenty of support and just a few AAW CAPs up – we could get by with just one … if for only a short time. Hope? Feh, not a plan – so be modest in your ambition.

OK, let’s go to NFZ-L with the Global Maritime Partnership we have, not that we wish we had.

Would we give a station to our allies? Of the remaining folks, GBR, ESP, & ITA have CVS, right? Well, the Brits don’t do CVS counter-air anymore – and the Italians and Spanish carriers? How many sorties can they do? How about if they had a lot of land based fighter support? How many fighter aircraft need to be stationed at Sigonella supported by how many tankers to cover Tripoli? Same question about Souda Bay and Benghazi. The British bases on Cyprus?

UK officials said they could use of a British military air base in Akrotiri, Cyprus to enforce a no-fly mission. “Akrotiri would be very useful if we wanted to deploy,” said an official. “That would seem most logical.”Although fixed-wing aircraft appear to be depleted, British officials said the main concern was that Col Gaddafi could use helicopters to mount bombing raids on opponents.

Thanks, but … look at that transit – tanker and AEW/ES only. That is about the same distance as from Masirah, Oman to Southern Afghanistan.

There is the problem – but we have a solution, the one a lot of smart people are going to try to make work. We will have do a limited NFZ-L with Big E and the KEARSARGE ESG. Not the way it should be done, but good enough for show.

On alert, using limited CAPs and relying on ready aircraft. Our allies may be here and there and will be able to help on the margins – but they have neither the ability or political will to do much more. They have proven over and over that they are less concerned about their backyard than we are – either that are they are just too used to us solving their big problems – and if we don’t – they will just hope for the best.

My guestimates on the back of a notepad are very rough – but probably within a standard deviation. Do them yourself. The tyranny of distance and allied defense budgets are beyond our control but are critical planning factors you cannot get around.

Once you ponder that some, remind yourself and others the importance of a CVN – and use this other little tool in discussions of the utility of CVN. Off Libya soon may be the USS ENTERPRISE (CVN-65), commissioned on 25 NOV 61 – almost 50 years ago. On the western side of Libya is the former Wheelus Air Force Base. How is that base working out for us?

**** it, let the Europeans sort it out.

[Docfeelgood]

It's always fun to watch Europeans volunteer the US for military action. It sure as **** won't be the Europeans(except perhaps the French) that would be doing the heavy lifting for the no-fly zone.

Whoops! You need a strike carrier to do that! Whoops! The UK PM that wants the no-fly zone is the guy whose administration GOT RID of their strike carrier in the space of a month!

Libya is right across the Med from Europe. It's a European problem.

I'm just glad I am no politician.

[Egbert]

I am against the idea of a no fly zone partly due to expense and potential duration of such an operation. There is also the grave danger of such an operation being seen as western meddling. We certainly would not want western troops on the ground as there would be a risk of creating a perception that we were somehow attempting to shape events to suit ourselves by taking the place over. We could supply arms and funds to the rebels, preferably via a third party and preferably with the support of the Arab League or the African Union. We should not be seen as even attempting to gain any measure of control over the rebels or of attempting to shape the new government.

I expect there will be a protracted civil war. Gaddafi seems to have no other way out, particularly since the ICC has been making noises about prosecuting him. (Umh, I would rather like to see the ICC abolished).

[Docfeelgood]

I am against the idea of a no fly zone partly due to expense and potential duration of such an operation. There is also the grave danger of such an operation being seen as western meddling. We certainly would not want western troops on the ground as there would be a risk of creating a perception that we were somehow attempting to shape events to suit ourselves by taking the place over. We could supply arms and funds to the rebels, preferably via a third party and preferably with the support of the Arab League or the African Union. We should not be seen as even attempting to gain any measure of control over the rebels or of attempting to shape the new government.

I expect there will be a protracted civil war. Gaddafi seems to have no other way out, particularly since the ICC has been making noises about prosecuting him. (Umh, I would rather like to see the ICC abolished).

looks like one heck of a quagmire

[Egbert]

Yes. I really think we not go beyond sending some weapons and perhaps a little money to the rebels.

[Docfeelgood]

I'm with staying neutral and may the best man win.

[dannubis]

Yes. I really think we not go beyond sending some weapons and perhaps a little money to the rebels.

Yes. That worked wonders in Afghanistan.

Let them fight. Whomever is left standing is the winner and we can choose whether or not to deal with him.

[MOBIUS]

MOBIUS: NeoCon. Who knew?

Fool.

-Arrian

Yes, I am the fool who the rest of the world has belatedly decided to follow after dithering for a few weeks.

Yes, common sense has finally prevailed. But the question is - has the resolution been passed in time to save the rebels?

[MOBIUS]

Now we just need to vote for a resolution on a no-fly zone and airstrikes on Bahrain...

[Hauldren Collider]

I'm just glad I am no politician.

Trust me, we're all glad you're not a politician.

[Hauldren Collider]

Now we just need to vote for a resolution on a no-fly zone and airstrikes on Bahrain...

You'd love to see the US bomb its own airbases, wouldn't you, anti-semite?

[MOBIUS]

Why would they do that!?

I think you forgot your meds, HC.

Please stop killing the Palestinian kittens with your hate...