The day part of the Internet died: Egypt goes dark

[Docfeelgood]

Will there be a coup? now that he said he will not step down?

[SlowwHand]

He'll be lucky if he doesn't get shot.

[Lonestar]

He'll be lucky if he doesn't get shot.

Again, I'd say that the army doesn't want Uncle Sugar to turn off the tap. If it comes down to us telling Mubarak he needs to leave or no more military aid, he's gonna get the boot.

[BeBMan]

Wow, that was really something yesterday. Lotsa Breaking News about stuff NOT happening.

[Dinner]

The best thing for Egypt now (after Mubarraks speech) is for a "soft" military coup. The other alternatives are a disaster.

What exactly makes a coup "soft"?

[Lonestar]

What exactly makes a coup "soft"?

I'm guessing you've never seen how the Thais do military coups.

[MOBIUS]

Again, I'd say that the army doesn't want Uncle Sugar to turn off the tap. If it comes down to us telling Mubarak he needs to leave or no more military aid, he's gonna get the boot.

Apparently the Saudis have already said that if the US did this, that they'd step in and fill in the gap.

One of the most stark things to come out of this whole thing, is how appallingly ineffectual and wrong-footed the US has been throughout this entire event - hardly becoming of a superpower, really...

[MOBIUS]

Anyway, as far as I can tell, Mubarak has virtually stepped down in all but name only in favour of Suleiman. He is mostly just a figurehead now.

This is basically the best possible decision you're gonna get now, because if the army was going to get rid of him, they would have done it by now. If people know what's good for them, they should go home now and focus on preparing for the elections in September.

[Docfeelgood]

Apparently the Saudis have already said that if the US did this, that they'd step in and fill in the gap.

One of the most stark things to come out of this whole thing, is how appallingly ineffectual and wrong-footed the US has been throughout this entire event - hardly becoming of a superpower, really...

I hate to say I agree with you.

[Zevico]

What exactly makes a coup "soft"?

Same basic regime. Different military leaders in charge. Soft because mubarak suleiman also military.

[Zevico]

Will there be a coup? now that he said he will not step down?

No one knows. Other possibility is army crackdown.

[MOBIUS]

If the public knows what's good for them, they should go home. Now.

[MOBIUS]

So, next predictions...

Is this actually the end of Mubarak, or just a bunch of rumours?

Is Mubarak-lite replacing him, or the Army?

Will there be democratic elections before September, in September, or later now because of this potential extra step in the transfer of power?

Is Mubarak still in the country or has he left already?

If he leaves, where is he going to go?

So many possibilities! Who wants to start predicting what happens next?

I've got another one, Sadat was assassinated by an army lieutenant and some soldiers. Perhaps Mubarak didn't say exactly what the Army intended him to yesterday - if they've been out manoeuvred, perhaps this could be the 'silver bullet' to solve everything...? Or an idealistic junior officer...?

Highly unlikely though.

[Zevico]

I've got another one, Sadat was assassinated by an army lieutenant and some soldiers. Perhaps Mubarak didn't say exactly what the Army intended him to yesterday - if they've been out manoeuvred, perhaps this could be the 'silver bullet' to solve everything...? Or an idealistic junior officer...?

Highly unlikely though.

Note assassination was undertaken by officer who was a muslim brotherhood sympathiser.
Possibly as brotherhood attempt to overthrow regime after peace w/ israelis.
Brotherhood coup a possibility but again we may not know of likelihood until it happens

[SpencerH]

What exactly makes a coup "soft"?

The military is already the power behind the throne. A soft coup would be one where they remove the civilian government, form an interim military government, then relinquish power after elections in the fall.