Republican Wave

[Arrian]

Yeah, I noticed that too. The "Blue Dogs" are Dems in conservative-leaning districts, right? They were always likely to have trouble in this election.

I think it's more about the fundamentals in those districts (lean-GOP naturally) and the economy than specific policy stances (even something as contentious as HCR).

...

The CT-Gov thing has gotten wierder. The SecState says Malloy won by ~3100 votes, but has not released the official numbers (boo for annoucing squat before she's got the official numbers to release). The Foley camp says they have him up, but by so few votes it would trigger an automatic recount (which means ~2000 votes or less). The AP has retracted its "Malloy wins" call and now has Foley up by ~8500 votes.

Sigh. We're this year's Florida.

-Arrian

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Sigh. We're this year's Florida.

-Arrian

You give yourselves too much credit. You are more like this year's Minnesota.

[DinoDoc]

I think it's more about the fundamentals in those districts (lean-GOP naturally) and the economy than specific policy stances (even something as contentious as HCR).

You honestly don't think wasting a year on something that wasn't a priority of voters had nothing at all to do with the events on Election Night?

[OzzyKP]

You honestly don't think wasting a year on something that wasn't a priority of voters had nothing at all to do with the events on Election Night?

He didn't say "nothing at all" he just said it had "more" to do with the conservative-leaning districts and the bad economy. And he's right.

[DinoDoc]

He didn't say "nothing at all" he just said it had "more" to do with the conservative-leaning districts and the bad economy. And he's right.

I don't buy that argument at all based on exit polling.

[DanS]

You can spin it how you want to or creatively reinterpret the shellacking for perspective, but the Dems have to win those conservative-leaning districts in order to be a majority party.

If the Dems aim to be a progressive party, then I am a happy camper.

[Arrian]

You honestly don't think wasting a year on something that wasn't a priority of voters had nothing at all to do with the events on Election Night?

Setting aside your (inaccurate IMO) characterization of "wasting a year on something that wasn't a priority of voters" I think it was secondary, not that it doesn't matter at all.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

You can spin it how you want to or creatively reinterpret the shellacking for perspective, but the Dems have to win those conservative-leaning districts in order to be a majority party.

If the Dems aim to be a progressive party, then I am a happy camper.

Oh, true enough. No argument from me there.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

I see Ozzy beat me to it.

Link for your exit poll from the districts that voted out "Blue Dog" Dems that you believe refutes my argument, DD? I'm open to the possibility that I'm wrong.

-Arrian

[DanS]

I'm surprised that the Dems were able to convince most of the blue dogs to vote for these policies.

[Boris Godunov]

I see Ozzy beat me to it.

Link for your exit poll from the districts that voted out "Blue Dog" Dems that you believe refutes my argument, DD? I'm open to the possibility that I'm wrong.

-Arrian

I'd like to see evidence of that, too. While the Tea Party types may have been outraged over HCR, I don't believe that's true for most of the country. The GOP won Independents overwhelmingly because of the economy, not because of anger at the healthcare package. The overall Healthcare reform bill that was passed isn't nearly as unpopular as Republicans like to portray it, and specific parts of it are extremely popular.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=131065423

[DinoDoc]

Link for your exit poll from the districts that voted out "Blue Dog" Dems that you believe refutes my argument, DD? I'm open to the possibility that I'm wrong.

Overall, voters came down firmly against expanded government: 56 percent told exit pollsters that the government is doing too may things better left to business and individuals;38 percent say the government should do more to solve problems.
Exit poll: priorities for the next Congress

[DinoDoc]

The overall Healthcare reform bill that was passed isn't nearly as unpopular as Republicans like to portray it, and specific parts of it are extremely popular.

How many Dems ran on it?

[Arrian]

DD - I was specifically talking about the Blue Dogs who lost. I was hoping for a link to exit poll data from, say, one of those races.

You gave me a WaPo article that does not provide the exit poll data, and talks generally about the whole country. 56% think the gummint does too much. Ok, sure, but I don't think that really answers the question we're trying to answer. Thinking about it some more, I'm not sure the data is out there to answer it. I'd phrase it this way: in 2006 and 2008, what % of voters in the Blue Dog districts thought that, versus X% in those districts (56%? More?) who did on Tuesday? I don't know that such data is out there. If it is, perhaps it backs you & not me. I dunno.

Also from the WaPo article:

Thirty-seven percent say that spending to create jobs should be the highest priority for the Congress, which will have a GOP-controlled House and Democratic Senate. A similar number, 39 percent, say the top priority should be reducing the budget deficit

Given that the overall country-wide voting is generally roughtly 50/50, this seems to make sense. Dem-leaners = 37% who want spending for jobs and the Rep-leaners are the 39% fired up about the deficit? I'm not sure that's how it breaks down, since the article does not provide the underlying data.

Something I've seen elsewhere that might support your claim:

The big demographic group that swung against the Dems was seniors. That's probably a direct response to HCR.

How many Dems ran on it?

Few, if any. They should have, though. It wouldn't have hurt them more, and it may have helped. I think the last thing a party should do is pass their #1 priority into law and then sheepishly cower and try to avoid talking about it. But these are the Democrats, so that's what they did.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Ack, I missed this part at first:

Forty-eight percent support canceling the changes that the Obama administration and Congress made to the health care system. Thirty-one percent say they want the new health care law expanded, and just 16 percent say they want to leave the laws as is.

That breaks down to 48% against HCR and 47% in favor either the current version or a more expansive version. So the electorate as a whole is very, very divided on HCR. Do those numbers support the sort of losses the Dems sustained? Again, here I think the economy comes into play, as does the inherent vulnerability of Dems who won in conservative districts.

In closing, that doesn't mean this wasn't significant. It takes us back to divided government, as opposed to the one-party-in-power 2000-2006 and 2008-2010 periods, and that's a big deal. The Democrats had a 2-year window to enact their policies (their vaunted 60 seats was long delayed by the Franken-Coleman thing, and then undone by Brown's election, but that's basically a quibble). That window closes in January.

-Arrian