Republican Wave

[KrazyHorse]

No.

1) Other than the IEM (where the markets are less complete) election wagers are illegal in the US
2) The restrictions under which I am placed in terms of personal trading are quite extraordinary, and certainly preclude participation in the IEM

[KrazyHorse]

There were a number of significant mispricings evident in the 2008 cycle (my favorite was the one where obama wins ohio was ~5 cents more expensive than obama wins presidency)

If you're willing to spend some amount of time looking at the markets, there are some obvious inefficiencies available around US elections

[Hauldren Collider]

Lieberman is also a piece of ****.

He's responsible for killing the public option, though, so <3

[Dinner]

Republican pick ups in the House are at 46 right now with polls on the west coast getting set to close in 3 minutes. I was very close in my prediction. No where near 60-65 as Dans was claiming though there are certainly more wins to chalk up coming.

[Dinner]

He's responsible for killing the public option, though, so <3

Exactly.

[KrazyHorse]

Republican pick ups in the House are at 46 right now with polls on the west coast getting set to close in 3 minutes. I was very close in my prediction. No where near 60-65 as Dans was claiming though there are certainly more wins to chalk up coming.

I think you're probably missing something.

2010 US Midterms - Number of House seats gained by Republicans in 2010 US midterms
Republicans to gain 60 or more seats in 2010 mid-term elections
Republicans to gain 60 or more seats in 2010 mid-term elections
Last Price: 85.0 22.0

You can buy
this at 90.0

You can sell
this at 85.0

http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/timeAndSalesForm.jsp?contractId=702726&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com

[KrazyHorse]

MSNBC showing a projection of 243-192 (pickup of 65)

[KrazyHorse]

Market's pinned at 52-48 (35 point bid-ask at that level)

Things are flowing again in the other markets/other levels.

[DanS]

I think you're probably missing something.

Not worth your time, dude.

[Imran Siddiqui]

I fully expect the wingnuts who will take over the House to shut down the Federal government at least once.

Cantor has already gone on record saying there is no way they'd shut down the government (as it'd be suicidal to do so).

[DinoDoc]

I wonder if that WH job is still open for Sestak.

[DanS]

I'm sure that lots of folks will be going over to the administration. Happens all the time after a big loss like this.

[GePap]

Cantor has already gone on record saying there is no way they'd shut down the government (as it'd be suicidal to do so).

Cantor can say all he wants, he has to deal with the new wave of incumbents.

[SlowwHand]

New wave of incumbents? So you expect these newly elected Republicans to hold their seats for the next while?

[Dinner]

49 seats in the house right now with little chance of getting to DanS's 60-65. It's ok big guy. Senate is 51-47 with two too close to call (Dems number includes two independents).