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Alberta Tories slide, Wildrose gains in new poll
Conservatives barely ahead of fledgling Wildrose
CALGARY - Just days before Premier Ed Stelmach's party leadership review, a new poll shows the governing Tories have sunk to their lowest level of popular support in 16 years, barely ahead of the Wildrose Alliance as the preferred party among decided Alberta voters.
An independent survey of 1,000 adult Albertans (840 decided voters) conducted by Environics Research Group, and provided exclusively to the Herald, reveals the Wildrose Alliance has firmly cemented itself in second place provincewide -- and have overtaken the dynastic Tories as the favoured party in Calgary.
The telephone poll, conducted Oct. 19 to 31, finds that 34 per cent of decided voters would cast a ballot for Stelmach and his Conservatives if an election were held today, compared to 28 per cent for the fledgling Wildrose Alliance and new leader Danielle Smith.
David Swann's Liberals are in third, with the backing of 20 per cent of voters, followed by Brian Mason's NDP at nine per cent and the recently delisted Green party at eight per cent.
Among the full survey group, 16 per cent of voters were undecided or didn't answer.
Stelmach's Tories have slipped 21 points in the polls over the last year and it's the PCs' lowest level of popular support since December 1993, when they dipped to 32 per cent, according to Environics pollster Tony Coulson.
He said the shrinking support for the Conservatives is symptomatic of a faltering Alberta economy, and has eroded a core base of support for the party.
"It really does look like the right (is) separating," Coulson said Wednesday. "The wild card now is the Wildrose Alliance."
In Calgary -- long seen as Tory bedrock--the Wildrose party has surged to first, with 34 per cent backing, followed by the PCs at 30 per cent, Liberals at 20 per cent, and NDP and Greens at eight per cent.
"Calgary has been sending the province a message on a pretty regular basis, so this is just another reflection of that disillusionment," Coulson added.
In Edmonton, the Tories sit atop the pack with the support of about one-third of voters, followed by the Liberals at 27 per cent, Wildrose at 17 per cent and NDP at 13 per cent.
Outside the major cities, 38 per cent of decided Albertans would vote for the PCs, 32 per cent for the Wildrose party and 15 per cent for the Grits.
Numbers in the rural areas reflect "bitterness and concern" about the government's decision to revamp its oil and gas royalty plan to collect more revenue with a price-and production-sensitive framework, he said.
The survey also comes as the government grapples with its controversial handling of the H1N1 flu vaccine, which saw the province assailed for long lineups and few inoculation stations. The government was forced to close clinics due to a feared vaccine shortage, and will reopen them to only high-risk patients.
The government's approval rating also sits at a 16-year low, with 36 per cent of voters happy with how the Tories are running the province, compared with 54 per cent of Albertans disapproving of the performance. Ten per cent didn't know or refused to answer.
Peter McCormick, a political scientist at the University of Lethbridge, said the PCs' sliding support is a reflection of growing discontent with decision-making and a perceived lack of leadership from the premier.
"They are not doing a good job of governing the province just now and Stelmach is not doing a good job of leading," McCormick said. "That's the problem the Tories have created for themselves."
The emerging challenge from the Wildrose Alliance, and eroding approval ratings, come as Stelmach prepares for a mandatory review of his leadership at the PC party annual convention this weekend in Red Deer. Former premier Ralph Klein and political observers have argued Stelmach needs around 70 per cent support to fend off calls for a leadership contest.
Pollster Coulson noted the economic downturn--one that's cost tens of thousands of jobs -- has also seen the government go from big surpluses to a record deficit.
"The government is struggling so much because of the economy," he said.
The approval ratings and voting preferences found in the Environics poll are consistent with numbers from an October poll conducted by Return on Insight of Calgary.
Political scientist McCormick believes the Conservatives will be most worried about eroding rural support, which has always propelled them to victory during their 38-year reign.
The Environics survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 95 times out of 100. In the regional breakdowns, the margin of error is 6.2 percentage points in the major cities and 5.6 for elsewhere.
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2008-2009: Tory Fortunes Slide
May 2008
Stelmach's cabinet approves substantial pay hikes of up to 34 per cent for themselves
August 2008
Recordbreaking resource revenues for 2008-09 are predicted in a provincial fiscal update, with a forecasted surplus of $8.5 billion
October 2008
Global markets crumble and stock exchanges around the world face the worst economic crisis since the 1980s
December 2008
Alberta Liberals elect Calgary MLA David Swann as their new leader
April 2009
Province releases its budget, forecasting a $4.6-billion deficit, the largest in Alberta's history; first deficit in 16 years
Sept. 2009
Statistics Canada says Alberta's unemployment rate hits 7.4% and reports 6,700 monthly job losses
October 2009
Danielle Smith elected leader of Wildrose Alliance, shortly after party wins Calgary byelection. H1N1 flu shot campaign begins
Conservatives barely ahead of fledgling Wildrose
CALGARY - Just days before Premier Ed Stelmach's party leadership review, a new poll shows the governing Tories have sunk to their lowest level of popular support in 16 years, barely ahead of the Wildrose Alliance as the preferred party among decided Alberta voters.
An independent survey of 1,000 adult Albertans (840 decided voters) conducted by Environics Research Group, and provided exclusively to the Herald, reveals the Wildrose Alliance has firmly cemented itself in second place provincewide -- and have overtaken the dynastic Tories as the favoured party in Calgary.
The telephone poll, conducted Oct. 19 to 31, finds that 34 per cent of decided voters would cast a ballot for Stelmach and his Conservatives if an election were held today, compared to 28 per cent for the fledgling Wildrose Alliance and new leader Danielle Smith.
David Swann's Liberals are in third, with the backing of 20 per cent of voters, followed by Brian Mason's NDP at nine per cent and the recently delisted Green party at eight per cent.
Among the full survey group, 16 per cent of voters were undecided or didn't answer.
Stelmach's Tories have slipped 21 points in the polls over the last year and it's the PCs' lowest level of popular support since December 1993, when they dipped to 32 per cent, according to Environics pollster Tony Coulson.
He said the shrinking support for the Conservatives is symptomatic of a faltering Alberta economy, and has eroded a core base of support for the party.
"It really does look like the right (is) separating," Coulson said Wednesday. "The wild card now is the Wildrose Alliance."
In Calgary -- long seen as Tory bedrock--the Wildrose party has surged to first, with 34 per cent backing, followed by the PCs at 30 per cent, Liberals at 20 per cent, and NDP and Greens at eight per cent.
"Calgary has been sending the province a message on a pretty regular basis, so this is just another reflection of that disillusionment," Coulson added.
In Edmonton, the Tories sit atop the pack with the support of about one-third of voters, followed by the Liberals at 27 per cent, Wildrose at 17 per cent and NDP at 13 per cent.
Outside the major cities, 38 per cent of decided Albertans would vote for the PCs, 32 per cent for the Wildrose party and 15 per cent for the Grits.
Numbers in the rural areas reflect "bitterness and concern" about the government's decision to revamp its oil and gas royalty plan to collect more revenue with a price-and production-sensitive framework, he said.
The survey also comes as the government grapples with its controversial handling of the H1N1 flu vaccine, which saw the province assailed for long lineups and few inoculation stations. The government was forced to close clinics due to a feared vaccine shortage, and will reopen them to only high-risk patients.
The government's approval rating also sits at a 16-year low, with 36 per cent of voters happy with how the Tories are running the province, compared with 54 per cent of Albertans disapproving of the performance. Ten per cent didn't know or refused to answer.
Peter McCormick, a political scientist at the University of Lethbridge, said the PCs' sliding support is a reflection of growing discontent with decision-making and a perceived lack of leadership from the premier.
"They are not doing a good job of governing the province just now and Stelmach is not doing a good job of leading," McCormick said. "That's the problem the Tories have created for themselves."
The emerging challenge from the Wildrose Alliance, and eroding approval ratings, come as Stelmach prepares for a mandatory review of his leadership at the PC party annual convention this weekend in Red Deer. Former premier Ralph Klein and political observers have argued Stelmach needs around 70 per cent support to fend off calls for a leadership contest.
Pollster Coulson noted the economic downturn--one that's cost tens of thousands of jobs -- has also seen the government go from big surpluses to a record deficit.
"The government is struggling so much because of the economy," he said.
The approval ratings and voting preferences found in the Environics poll are consistent with numbers from an October poll conducted by Return on Insight of Calgary.
Political scientist McCormick believes the Conservatives will be most worried about eroding rural support, which has always propelled them to victory during their 38-year reign.
The Environics survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 95 times out of 100. In the regional breakdowns, the margin of error is 6.2 percentage points in the major cities and 5.6 for elsewhere.
---------
2008-2009: Tory Fortunes Slide
May 2008
Stelmach's cabinet approves substantial pay hikes of up to 34 per cent for themselves
August 2008
Recordbreaking resource revenues for 2008-09 are predicted in a provincial fiscal update, with a forecasted surplus of $8.5 billion
October 2008
Global markets crumble and stock exchanges around the world face the worst economic crisis since the 1980s
December 2008
Alberta Liberals elect Calgary MLA David Swann as their new leader
April 2009
Province releases its budget, forecasting a $4.6-billion deficit, the largest in Alberta's history; first deficit in 16 years
Sept. 2009
Statistics Canada says Alberta's unemployment rate hits 7.4% and reports 6,700 monthly job losses
October 2009
Danielle Smith elected leader of Wildrose Alliance, shortly after party wins Calgary byelection. H1N1 flu shot campaign begins
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